By almost any statistical measure, this season has been a disaster for the Toronto Blue Jays.
Last year's much-heralded "everybody eats" offensive strategy has been replaced by "nobody eats." The decline at the plate throughout the lineup has been so stark that it's made last season's optimism about the Jays unlocking a new way to score runs look silly. It turns out power hitting is still good, and not having much of it is still bad.
A season-ending injury to Cody Ponce almost immediately undid Toronto's vaunted pitching depth at the start of the year, and the delayed returns of Trey Yesavage and Shane Bieber turned an expected strength into a liability.
Dylan Cease has been great. So, too, has Louis Varland. After that, it's been one regression after another, topped by the baffling case of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has followed his superstar turn in the postseason with a wretched campaign.
And yet, Toronto is in the playoff hunt. Although the Blue Jays remain outside a wild-card position, series wins over the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees over the past week have moved them within striking distance. On Monday, they found themselves one game behind the Baltimore Orioles for that third wild card, a spot likely to go to a trade-deadline seller almost by default. One of Baltimore, the Texas Rangers, Toronto, Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Guardians, or Minnesota Twins appears bound to eke in there, even after giving up on the season.
Of course, Toronto's front office would tell you that it didn't do that. The organization traded Kevin Gausman, the anchor of the starting rotation, but brought in Jose Soriano as a high-end replacement. While they also moved on from former closer Jeff Hoffman and outfielder Daulton Varsho, the Blue Jays kept guys like George Springer and Shane Bieber, who both seemed like surefire trade-deadline departures.
But as much as GM Ross Atkins was willing to classify this as a deadline retool instead of a rebuild, the reality is that the Jays - boasting a top-five payroll in Major League Baseball - were never going to tear it down and embark on a multi-year project to add prospect and draft capital. With veterans like Cease and Guerrero signed to long-term, top-of-the-market contracts, and team president Mark Shapiro and Atkins both recently receiving long-term extensions, a full-scale reset wasn't realistic. Any chance for a drastic overhaul essentially ended after Toronto went on that spectacular run last season.
Given how close the Blue Jays came to winning the World Series, it's easy to forget that they entered last fall still looking for their first playoff victory under manager John Schneider. Had they made another quick exit against the Yankees, sweeping changes and likely firings would've followed. Instead, a deep playoff run reinforced the value of a successful team to its corporate owners, and Shapiro and Atkins were given the green light to spend freely again.
All of this makes the playoff chase kind of unusual for the Jays and their fan base. For years, the question was whether this team could ever get over the playoff hump, and whether a roster built around homegrown jewels like Guerrero could do something in the "championship window" that management had long talked about. That gave last season particular urgency, as it seemed like the roster's final chance to prove it could make noise in October before major changes.
This time around, there's much less uncertainty. Regardless of whether the Jays snag that last wild-card playoff spot, their direction for next season is largely set. They have several major-league-caliber starting pitchers and a couple of bullpen gems. They'll probably lose Springer to free agency, but they've repeatedly shown a willingness to spend big on the open market, even if labor uncertainty clouds the picture next winter. And in an homage to the 2025 team that had a knack for getting contributions from unexpected places, this year's squad has brought in who-dat guys like Charles McAdoo and Brett Bateman, both of whom have made meaningful contributions to wins."McAdoo sparks late Jays rally in comeback win" is not a headline anyone expected to read in 2026, but here we are.
The Blue Jays will, in other words, be trying to set themselves up for another playoff run in 2027, no matter what happens between now and the end of this season. That was, after all, essentially the message from Atkins after the trade deadline passed this month: We go again.
The funny thing is, no one really expected "again" to come quite so soon.
Scott Stinson is a contributing writer for theScore.
