The NFL's unpredictability was on full display last week. Lamar Jackson's highly anticipated return lasted one play; the Buccaneers played the Falcons in a torrential downpour; the Broncos and Cardinals erased double-digit fourth-quarter deficits; and the Jets, Raiders, and Titans combined to score 107 points.
We'll turn the page on a down week. Below are our picks against the spread, favorite touchdown scorer bets, and three player props to target.
Jump to: Early slate | Late slate | Touchdown scorers | Player props
👉 Check out all of the Week 9 lines available on theScore Bet here
Our trio of betting writers - Eric Patterson, Brenden Deeg, and Dane Belbeck - will make picks against the spread for Sunday's slate and Monday Night Football all season.
Eric Patterson breaks down his favorite picks against the spread, adding his own analysis and insights. He'll also identify touchdown scorers and player props to target.
🏈 Bet: Saints (-3)
Shedeur Sanders will start for the Browns. It might not be a downgrade from Deshaun Watson at quarterback, but it certainly isn't an improvement. Sanders tends to take sacks and turn the ball over - he threw 10 interceptions and took 23 sacks in eight games last year - and that's a terrible combination when being asked to keep a game close. Perhaps he's improved in those areas, but I'm not willing to trust it until I see it.
On the flip side, the Saints are coming off their bye, and the importance of a rest advantage at this stage of the season cannot be overstated. New Orleans is desperate at 2-5 and has the clear edge at quarterback. 👉 Add the Saints to your betslip on theScore here.
🏈 Bet: Cowboys (-5.5)
The Cowboys are coming off a terrible overtime loss to the Cardinals in which they blew a 10-point lead with four minutes remaining. That public collapse is likely still in the back of people's minds as they scan the board for Week 9, where Dallas is only a 5.5-point favorite over the Colts, who seem to have given up on the season.
The Colts got destroyed 42-7 by the Jaguars in a divisional game last week. Vibes are at an all-time low as trade speculation about their best remaining players continues to circulate. Jonathan Taylor's workload will likely be capped as Indianapolis tries to find a trade partner.
Even if the Colts put up a valiant effort, I don't see how their offense can score enough to stay within five points of Dallas. Dak Prescott and Co. still have their sights set on the playoffs, while Colts players are probably looking for the nearest exit. 👉 Add the Cowboys to your betslip on theScore here.
🏈 Bet: Giants (-3)
A road favorite in a divisional game usually isn't the play, but I can't trust Joe Milton in his first start for the Eagles. Like the Colts, Philly is a team that's already eager for the season to end.
Rarely will the Giants have the best quarterback in a game when starting J.J. McCarthy, but that could very well be the case here. McCarthy has performed well in his two starts since taking over for Jameis Winston, and the Giants also have the rest advantage. New York should be able to handle a beaten-down Eagles team that's looking forward to a Week 10 bye. 👉 Add the Giants to your betslip on theScore here.
🏈 Bet: Packers (+3)
The Packers' defense has been one of the biggest surprises of the season. It's tied for fifth in EPA/play, according to SumerSports, and that's without Micah Parsons in the lineup. Drake Maye has struggled this season against good defenses - he's led the Patriots' offense to a combined 29 points against the Seahawks, Steelers, and Jaguars.
This line suggests New England is the better team and would be favored in a neutral-site game. I don't see it that way. The Packers have a top-tier defense and are more talented on offense aside from their quarterback. Green Bay's got big-play ability with Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, a dynamic duo most defenses struggle to slow down. 👉 Add the Packers to your betslip on theScore here.
🏈 Bet: Bears (-6)
I'm drinking the Bears Kool-Aid after seeing them go into Seattle on Monday night and pick up a convincing win. Caleb Williams is playing at an MVP level, and no opponent seems to have answers for Ben Johnson's play-calling.
The Buccaneers have the league's best defense based on EPA/play, which would be an argument for backing them had the Bears not just scored 34 points on the Seahawks. There are still a bunch of questions about Tampa Bay's offense, which picked up a win last week despite completing zero passes. The Bucs will try to run the ball with Bucky Irving and Kenny Gainwell, but adding Jeffery Simmons to the Bears' defensive line has completely changed its makeup. Chicago's defense can stop the run and get the ball back into Williams' hands. 👉 Add the Bears to your betslip on theScore here.
Season-long record (8-14, -3.9% ROI)
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+105)
The Panthers have conceded 11 touchdowns in seven games to running backs. Coleman is the new lead back for Denver and can get the job done on the ground or through the air - he has 30 carries and 10 receptions in three games, and he scored in two of them.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+175)
Nabers has six or more targets in each of his last four outings, and he didn't miss a beat when the Giants switched from Winston to McCarthy. He's gone scoreless in his last two games, but Nabers gets to face an Eagles defense that's given up 10 touchdowns to wideouts this season. The Giants could be without Cam Skattebo, eliminating another goal-line option. Additionally, Nabers has a 33.33% target share in the red zone.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+325)
Backing any Dolphin to score a touchdown is a tad risky, but that's why we're getting such long odds for Dulcich to get one over the line. The Lions have allowed 11 touchdowns in seven games to tight ends, while Dulcich has four or more receptions in his last four outings and a 30.77% target share in the red zone.
Season-long record (10-11, -3.4% ROI)
🏈 Bet: Over 47.5 receiving yards (-110)
LaPorta's had two quiet games in a row, but something big is in store against the Dolphins. Miami is giving up 69 yards per game and a staggering 87% catch rate to tight ends. The Dolphins just can't cover the position, as proven by huge games from T.J. Hockenson, George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and Mason Taylor. LaPorta is in the same tier or better than all of those tight ends. Plus, Amon-Ra St. Brown is a little banged up, which may mean more looks for LaPorta, especially around the goal line.
🏈 Bet: Over 43.5 receiving yards (-125)
The Commanders rookie led the team in route participation and targets last week in their first game without Terry McLaurin. Williams has surpassed this total in back-to-back outings, and the Commanders will likely be without Treylon Burks, which means more looks for Williams. The Commanders are expected to play from behind in a high-scoring game against the Rams, which should lead to more Jayden Daniels dropbacks and a higher likelihood that Williams hits this total.
🏈 Bet: Over 39.5 pass attempts (+115)
Even with Josh Jacobs as their lead back, the Packers' ground game has continued to struggle. Instead, Green Bay relies on Love's arm, and he's attempted 40 or more passes in five of eight games this season, including each of the last three. I'd expect another heavy dose of Love this week - the Patriots allow the sixth-fewest rush yards per game, and the best way to attack their defense is through the air.
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