When it comes to projecting NFL production, prospect landing spots can be just as important as predraft evaluations.
Trying to account for both as I parsed the oddsboards for the 2026 Rookie of the Year awards, I was surprised by how many under-the-radar contenders stood out.
Here are five long shots who could be in the mix on both offense and defense.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Concepcion was one of my favorite players in the 2026 class. The former Texas A&M wideout creates easy separation at every level of the field, he's more competitive in contested situations than you might think, and he's electric after the catch. His current odds - he's tied for eighth among top offensive contenders - are weighed down by an uncertain quarterback situation in Cleveland.
That's fair, but it's not like a rookie receiver has never overcome such circumstances. Garrett Wilson recorded 1,103 yards en route to earning 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year honors despite being stuck with Zach Wilson, Mike White, and Joe Flacco. Todd Monken's arrival as head coach, along with a new-look offensive line, provides a far more appealing pass-game foundation than the Jets had that season, even if Deshaun Watson and/or Shedeur Sanders continue to struggle. Concepcion should see more than enough volume to approach Wilson-esque production, particularly if the Browns once again find themselves playing from behind in the second half of games.
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Williams is bound to fly under the radar after landing in Washington as a third-round pick. And with Brandon Aiyuk seemingly destined to end up with the Commanders if and when he's released by the 49ers, Williams' projected target share may not be ideal. But a veteran receiver who hasn't played since a major knee injury in 2024 can only do so much to temper my excitement about this fit.
Williams is a perfect slot complement to what Terry McLaurin (and eventually Aiyuk) provides on the outside. He earns consistent separation with route nuance and quickness out of his breaks, he's a reliable finisher at the catch point, and he's a playmaker with the ball in his hands. With new offensive coordinator David Blough coming over from Detroit, I think there's a real chance that Washington envisions Williams taking on the Amon-Ra St. Brown role in this passing game. Williams should quickly emerge as one of Jayden Daniels' go-to weapons.
The 49ers taking Stribling with the first pick of the second round was one of the more controversial picks of draft weekend. I was admittedly among the many people who didn't love the value. That said, I can appreciate his potential fit in Kyle Shanahan's offense. Stribling provides the contested-catch prowess and blocking skills to step into the crucial role vacated by Jauan Jennings. And his 4.36 speed adds plenty of upside when it comes to stretching the field and making plays after the catch.
Stribling's path to a meaningful workload is murky. Mike Evans and Ricky Pearsall will open the year at the top of the receiver depth chart, and a good chunk of the passing game should still run through George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey. But the 49ers spent enough draft capital on Stribling to suggest they believe he can further elevate that star-studded group. And it can't hurt that Shanahan would take great joy in silencing the critics who questioned the pick.
I was probably lower than the consensus on Stowers during the predraft process, mostly because I expected his blocking issues could make it difficult to play him in any sort of traditional tight end role. Those concerns remain. But one of the smartest organizations in football spent a second-round pick on the Vanderbilt product, which tells me they've got a plan to maximize his talents.
Maybe he'll be a big slot receiver in Sean Mannion's new-look offense. Or, with A.J. Brown on the way out, perhaps Stowers could even be utilized on the boundary. Either way, his ability to dominate contested-catch situations will make him a valuable target for Jalen Hurts, who has always been at his best attacking one-on-one coverage downfield. Stowers could put up some big touchdown numbers right out of the gate, and the Eagles should also be eager to take advantage of his ability to make plays after the catch.
Bernard was, in my view, one of the more underrated prospects in this draft. He's an excellent route-runner against man and zone, he's got consistent hands, he's a playmaker after the catch, and he'll do the dirty work as a blocker. If some inconsistent quarterback play hadn't affected his production at Alabama, I'm not sure he would have been available to the Steelers at No. 47 overall.
Bernard's well-rounded and reliable skill set should quickly earn the coaching staff's trust. He's also one of the rare rookies capable of meeting the standard Aaron Rodgers (assuming he returns) demands of his receivers. And considering the future Hall of Famer's recent trajectory - he's coming off a season in which he ranked last among qualified starters in air yards per attempt - Bernard's ability to get open in the short and intermediate levels of the field could earn the wideout plenty of opportunities.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
McCoy fell to the fourth round of the draft due to medical evaluations of his knee, but the concerns appear to be more about his career longevity than his availability in the short term. The Tennessee corner was on the field during last week's rookie minicamp, and the Raiders are optimistic about his chances of playing this season, according to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler.
Prior to his slide, McCoy was widely considered a borderline top-10 talent and a potential shutdown corner at the next level. Thanks to the relative uncertainty about his status, he's tied for 13th on the Defensive Rookie of the Year oddsboard. If he can stay on the field and recapture the form he enjoyed in 2024, plenty of teams will regret not taking a swing.
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Howell is one of the best pure pass-rushers in this rookie class. His size and lack of length (zeroth percentile arms) explain why he was still available in the second round. Due to his resulting lack of early-down upside, he could be destined for a sub-package role early on. But since when has run defense factored into this award?
Getting after the quarterback is always the easiest way to put yourself in contention for DROY honors, and Howell should be able to do so at a high level from Day 1. He's got great upfield burst, the ability to either bend the edge or counter back inside, and the rush plan to put it all together for consistent wins. Crucially, improvements to the Bengals' defense could set the stage for some much different game scripts in 2026. Howell is a sneaky good bet to lead rookies in sacks if he gets enough opportunities to pin his ears back and help Cincinnati defend more leads.
I'm incredibly high on Banks' potential. His college production fell well short of what you'd like to see from a high-end defensive tackle prospect, and some foot issues forced him to miss extended time last year and then required surgery after the combine. But there's a real case to be made that he has the upside of a top-10 pick.
Banks' tape from Florida shows he could be a true game-changer. There simply aren't many 6-foot-6, 327-pound linemen who can consistently notch quick wins both as a run defender and when it comes to getting after the quarterback. Banks could be a star in the middle of Brian Flores' defense.
We're getting into true home-run swing territory here, but this might be my favorite pick of the bunch. The Bucs had a glaring need at linebacker following the retirement of Lavonte David, and Trotter was a perfect find in the second round.
The Missouri product is, first and foremost, a machine in the run game. His processing skills, pursuit speed, and physicality should allow for some elite tackle production working behind a strong Bucs defensive front. And while he may not provide much upside in coverage, Trotter's unique skill set as a blitzer (including an impressive rush arsenal) gives him plenty of pass-game value. His fit in a pressure-happy Todd Bowles defense that once saw Devin White rack up nine sacks as an off-ball linebacker should afford him the opportunity to stuff the stat sheet.
The Colts landing Haulcy in the third round was one of Day 2's best value picks. At first glance, he seems like a bit of an old-school safety. His highlight reel consists of physical plays coming downhill, both as a run defender and punishing receivers working the middle of the field. If he translates his tackle production alone - he's second among all FBS defenders since 2022 with 383 tackles - that would be more than enough to earn him some early buzz.
He's not just a tone-setter, though. Haulcy may not have the coverage range of other top safety prospects, but his instincts allow him to make impressive breaks on routes developing in front of him. I think he could get his hands on the ball quite a bit as a two-high safety in Lou Anarumo's defense. Combine the occasional game-changing play with linebacker-like tackle numbers and there's no reason Haulcy can't threaten to become the first safety to take home DROY honors since 2010.
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