NFL draft: Using betting odds to predict the top 10 picks
The NFL draft gets underway Thursday from Pittsburgh, and there's already action involving a top-10 pick. On Friday, the Giants sent defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals for the 10th overall selection, giving head coach John Harbaugh two opportunities to add key pieces to his new team.
For this mock draft exercise, we'll base our selections for the top-10 picks exclusively on betting odds from theScore Bet. Draft odds aren't the most productive tool, but they often reflect the consensus from experts and insiders while factoring in the latest news and rumors.
According to betting odds, here's the most likely order of the top 10 picks.
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
Has there been a single mock draft that doesn't have Mendoza at No. 1? The Indiana quarterback is -50000 on theScore Bet to go first overall, a 99.8% implied probability.
Arvell Reese, EDGE, Ohio State
The favorite for which edge-rusher the Jets will take at No. 2 has flip-flopped in the past few weeks, with Reese leading David Bailey in this spot. Reese is listed at -350 (77.8% implied probability), while Bailey is +225. The Jets recently canceled a meeting with Bailey, which could be why Reese is now the substantial favorite.
David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech
Arizona is a candidate to trade out of this pick, potentially to a team looking to move up and draft Jeremiyah Love ahead of the Titans and Giants. If the Cardinals keep the selection, the betting odds suggest they'll take Bailey, with Reese already off the board. They could also opt for an offensive lineman like Francis Mauigoa, which is never a bad option for a rebuilding franchise.
Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
Love is probably the most exciting prospect in the draft. He possesses all the tools to become a game-changing running back, a position often undervalued early in Round 1. Love is the -140 favorite to be selected fourth overall, presumably by Tennessee. However, if the Cardinals take an offensive lineman, the Titans and new defensive-minded head coach Robert Saleh could be tempted to take either Reese or Bailey, depending on who falls.
Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State
Following the Lawrence trade, Styles' odds to go fifth overall shortened from +200 to +150. The movement suggests the Giants will likely take a defensive player with this pick, hoping an offensive prospect - either a wide receiver or offensive lineman - falls to No. 10.
Wide receiver Jordyn Tyson is the second favorite to be picked fifth at +275, but he could still be on the board when the Giants pick again.
Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
Tate is the -350 favorite to be selected as the first wide receiver off the board and is expected to go to the Browns. Although his odds of being taken sixth overall are +300, Cleveland could also be in the mix for tackle Spencer Fano, who's +375 in this spot. If the Giants pass on Styles, a team might trade up with the Browns to pick the Ohio State linebacker ahead of the Commanders, with the Cowboys considered the most likely candidate to make such a move. Styles is also +400 to be picked sixth.
Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State
If Love somehow drops into general manager Adam Peters' lap, the Commanders will likely be sprinting to get their pick in. They could also take Styles if he falls or opt for Downs to strengthen the secondary for the next decade.
However, with Love, Styles, and Tate all off the board in this exercise, Washington lands wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, who's the fourth favorite to be picked seventh overall at +550. The Commanders need help at wide receiver opposite Terry McLaurin, and Tyson's workout last Friday in front of 18 teams seems to have subsided injury concerns around him.
Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU
The Saints are expected to take a wide receiver with this pick. Tyson is the +200 favorite, while Tate is second at +425. With both of those names already off the board at No. 8, New Orleans stays local and selects cornerback Mansoor Delane out of LSU. Delane is a heavy favorite to be the first cornerback selected and holds the second-best odds (+150) behind Downs to be the first defensive back selected.
Rueben Bain Jr., EDGE, Miami
After posting a 6-11 record in 2025, the Chiefs get to add one of the draft's premier pass-rushers in Reuben Bain Jr. The former Miami star is a +400 co-favorite with Tyson to be picked ninth overall. But with Tyson already off the board, the Chiefs will have to "settle" for Bain, who will slot in perfectly on a defensive line with Chris Jones and George Karlaftis.
Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
Downs is the +300 favorite to be picked 10th overall, which would give New York two of the best defensive players in the draft. However, the Giants are probably hoping Tyson or Tate will fall to them at No. 10 since they already used a top-10 pick on defense. If Downs and the two wideouts are already off the board, expect New York to bolster its offensive line with either Mauigoa or Fano.
Another potential scenario is that the Titans pass on Love at No. 4 and the Giants exit the first round with both Love and Downs - two players considered among the best overall in the draft.
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