Week 9 betting primer: Jets face final chance to turn season around

Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet

It's a do-or-die week for a handful of NFL teams. Falling three or four games below .500 at this point in the season is a hole too deep to climb out and will have teams shifting their focus to the approaching trade deadline.

First up - the Jets, who will look to save their season Thursday night against the Texans.

Jump to: HOU @ NYJ | DAL @ ATL | MIA @ BUF | LAR @ SEA | DET @ GB | IND @ MIN

Thursday Night Football

The 2-6 Jets host the Texans on Halloween in what could be their last opportunity to turn around a disastrous season. They've lost five straight games, most recently to a far inferior (on paper) Patriots team. The weight of the franchise will be on Aaron Rodgers' shoulders in prime time.

Case for the Texans

• This spread suggests these two teams are evenly matched, but the Texans are the seventh-best team based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) while the Jets are 24th.

Case for the Jets

• Is there one? Maybe you could say the Jets are due, or perhaps Rodgers and Davante Adams will finally get on the same page. But right now, this team looks dysfunctional.

X-factors

• This is a battle between two of the league's best pass defenses. The Jets limit opposing teams to 161 yards per game (second fewest) and the Texans hold teams to 164.3 yards (third fewest). If the ground game determines the result, Houston has the advantage with a better rushing attack and rush defense.
• The Texans will be without two of their top three receivers after Stefon Diggs tore his ACL in Week 8. Tank Dell will step in as C.J. Stroud's No. 1 option and has a receiving prop total of 59.5.

Best bet - Texans +2.5

Laying points with the Jets is a scary proposition, and that's not a Halloween reference. Sure, the Texans have injuries on offense, but they also have one of the league's best defenses. Plus, New York is a complete disaster.

Best prop - Joe Mixon 70+ rushing yards and anytime TD scorer (+130)

Let's start the week with a small same-game parlay. When healthy, Mixon's been nothing short of incredible this season. He's averaging 119.5 yards and 1.25 touchdowns per game when he receives 13-plus carries. The only game where he failed to surpass 100 yards on the ground and score was during Week 2 when he got hurt.

Sunday 1 p.m. ET slate

The Cowboys will look to end a two-game losing skid on the road in Atlanta. They were defeated Sunday night by the 49ers in a game that wasn't as close as the scoreboard indicated. As for the Falcons, they're coming off a road win in Tampa Bay to take the NFC South lead.

Case for the Cowboys

• The Cowboys are 3-1 against the spread (ATS) this season on the road.
• That's all we can come up with.

Case for the Falcons

• The Falcons have scored 31-plus points in three of their last four games and now face a Cowboys defense that gives up the second-most points in the league (28.3).

X-factors

• Dallas' defense surrenders 8.2 yards per pass, the most in the league. The Falcons have the ninth-highest yards-per-pass rate at 7.8. Kirk Cousins should have a field day picking apart the Cowboys' defense, especially if Micah Parsons remains sidelined.
• The over has hit in four of the past five Falcons games and is 5-2 in Cowboys contests this season.

Best bet - Falcons -2.5

The Cowboys were embarrassed at home by the Lions two games ago and needed to outscore the 49ers 14-3 in the fourth quarter to lose by six. Meanwhile, the Falcons have won four of their last five and seem to be clicking on offense. It doesn't feel like Atlanta covering by a field goal in a game that could be a shootout is asking for much.

Best prop - Kyle Pitts over 44.5 receiving yards (-130)

Pitts has surpassed this total in four straight games, averaging 78.5 yards per contest over that span. The Cowboys got torched by George Kittle last week, gave up 52 yards receiving to Sam Laporta in Week 6, and Pat Freiermuth found the end zone against them in Week 5. Pitts should be able to continue his hot run against a team struggling to defend the tight end.

The Dolphins head north to Buffalo for a classic AFC East battle against the Bills. Tua Tagovailoa made a welcomed return to Miami last week and heightens the intrigue of this matchup. The Bills are rolling at 6-2, while the Dolphins' season is on the line as they look to avoid dropping to 2-6.

Case for the Dolphins

• Despite losing by a point to the Cardinals in Week 8, the Dolphins looked like themselves again with Tagovailoa back under center.
• In Week 2, the Dolphins were 2.5-point favorites at home to the Bills with a healthy Tagovailoa. Yes, Buffalo has proven to be one of the league's best teams since then, but an 8.5-point swing in the spread feels too big.

Case for the Bills

• The Bills are 6-2 ATS this season and 3-0 at home.
• Josh Allen and Co. are the fifth-best team in the NFL per DVOA, while the Dolphins are ranked 29th after Tagovailoa missed four games.

X-factors

• If Tagovailoa plays like he did last week (minus the fumbles), the Dolphins should be able to compete. He elevates the entire offense, proven by De'Von Achane's 147 total yards and Tyreek Hill's six-for-72 game. Tagovailoa's passing yards prop is set at 249.5.
• Allen, currently the MVP favorite at +325, is 11-2 against the Dolphins in his career. He's averaging 269.4 passing yards per game and 2.6 touchdowns. His passing prop is 249.5, but he's only averaging 220.8 this season.

Best bet

The Bills are obviously the better team, but six points feels like too many to lay against a Dolphins team we've barely seen this season. Miami with Tagovailoa should be able to keep this close even if its defense doesn't have an answer for Allen.

Best prop - De'Von Achane over 86.5 rushing + receiving yards

Achane smashed this total last week in Tagovailoa's first game back. He also eclipsed this number in the two games Tua started at the beginning of the season.

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET

The Seahawks welcome the Rams in a huge divisional matchup with playoff implications. Every team in the NFC West is 4-4 except Los Angeles, which is 3-4. Come January, this game could decide who's in and who's out.

Case for the Rams

• The Rams looked impressive Thursday night with a 30-20 victory over the Vikings thanks to the return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
• They're 16-6 ATS straight up with a rest advantage since hiring Sean McVay in 2017. They're also 28-18-1 ATS within the division under McVay.

Case for the Seahawks

• The Seahawks are the better team per DVOA, although the Rams have been without their top two receivers. Still, this line suggests Los Angeles is the stronger side and would be roughly four-point favorites if this game were at SoFi Stadium.

X-factors

• Nacua and Kupp returned to the lineup last week and combined for 12 catches for 157 yards and one touchdown. Kupp is +130 and Nacua is +155 to find the end zone in Seattle.
• Matthew Stafford threw for 279 yards and four touchdowns during the return of his top two receivers.
• Geno Smith remains the NFL leader in passing yards thanks to the Seahawks' league-leading 66.27% pass rate. His passing prop is 249.5.
• Seattle has one of the league's worst defenses against the run. Kyren Williams is averaging 76.1 yards per game and has rushed for over 75 in five straight.

Best bet - Seahawks +2

We backed the Seahawks at home last week when they were three-point underdogs to the Bills. That didn't go according to plan, but the Rams aren't in the same class as Buffalo. Now, Seattle's only getting one fewer point compared to last week.

Best prop - Puka Nacua over 5.5 receptions (-120)

Nacua returned to the lineup last week and looked fantastic. He hauled in seven of Stafford's nine targets for 107 yards. Nacua even had two carries, a clear indication he's healthy and that McVay wants to get him the ball.

It's a battle for NFC North supremacy as the Lions visit Lambeau Field to take on the Packers. Both teams have six victories this season, but Detroit is winning in dominating fashion with recent blowouts over the Cowboys and Titans.

Case for the Lions

• The Lions are the best team ATS in the league under Dan Campbell. They're 43-18 since he took over in 2021 and are 6-1 this year.
• Detroit ranks first in DVOA and is arguably the best team in the NFL.
• Jordan Love's health is a factor. The spread possibly assumes he's 100% healthy when his mobility may be limited due to a groin injury (if he plays).

Case for the Packers

• There isn't a case if Malik Willis starts. He was serviceable in the two games he started earlier this season, but those were against the Titans and Colts.
• The Packers are 6-1 as home underdogs since hiring Matt LaFleur in 2019.

X-factors

• The Lions' offense is downright explosive. Detroit is averaging a league-high 33.4 points per game. The Lions have scored 31-plus points in four straight games and 42-plus in three of their last four. Their team total is set at 26.5.
• If you're going to beat Detroit's defense, it's through the air. The Lions concede the fifth-most passing yards per game (247.6), and teams throw on them at the third-highest rate in the league (65.23%).

Best bet - Lions -3.5

It's not always the best idea to fade the Packers as home underdogs, but the Lions are a rare exception. Jared Goff has this team looking unstoppable. The Packers' defense is solid but nothing to write home about. Plus, the hope is that Love plays and isn't 100%.

Best prop - Jahmyr Gibbs over 88.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)

Gibbs has proven why he's Detroit's most dangerous offensive weapon in recent games. He's gone over 88.5 total yards in three straight contests and five of seven this season.

Sunday Night Football

Sunday night football will see newly named starter Joe Flacco and the Colts head to Minnesota to take on the 5-2 Vikings. The Colts' decision to bench Anthony Richardson was heavily scrutinized, although Flacco gives them the best chance to win now. We'll see if the quarterback switch immediately pays off.

The case for the Colts

• The Colts are the league's best team ATS at 7-1.
• Joe Flacco is 3-0 ATS as a starter this season.
• The line opened with the Vikings as seven-point favorites but moved in the Colts' favor after Flacco was announced as the starter. There's a chance the line hasn't moved enough.

Case for the Vikings

• According to DVOA, the Vikings are the league's third-best team and the Colts are 20th. This spread suggests that Minnesota would only be favored by three points if the game were played on a neutral field, which feels short.
• Minnesota is 5-2 ATS this season, the sixth-best record in the league.

X-factors

• The Vikings have one of the NFL's best rush defenses, giving up only 83.9 rush yards per game, while the Colts rely heavily on Jonathan Taylor to power their offense. Taylor's rushing total is 69.5, but he's averaging 90.8 on the ground this season.
• Justin Jefferson is second in the league in receiving yards, trailing Ja'Marr Chase by only 28 with a game in hand. He's surpassed 80-plus yards in six straight contests. The Colts give up the ninth-most passing yards at 227.8 per game.

Best bet - Colts +5

We'll ride the hot hand ATS and take the Colts with the points. The Vikings have lost two straight and didn't look good last week in L.A. They need a victory to avoid a third straight loss, but Flacco should be able to keep the Colts within a touchdown.

Best prop - Justin Jefferson over 6.5 receptions + over 79.5 receiving yards (+125)

We'll end our weekly primer with another same-game parlay focusing on the best receiver in the league. Jefferson has consistently gone over 80 yards and has seven-plus catches in back-to-back games. It's safe to expect another monster performance from him in prime time.