Key takeaways and analysis from Week 16 in the NFL

Sunday Rundown recaps the most important developments from the day's action and examines their significance moving forward.

Jayden's signature game

The Offensive Rookie of the Year race is over.

It was always going to take a red-hot finish from one of the other contenders to threaten Jayden Daniels' status as the front-runner. The latest performance from the Commanders quarterback ensures there's nothing the rest of the field can do.

Daniels put together his best game of an outstanding rookie campaign in Sunday's win over the powerhouse Eagles. The result may well have been different were it not for an injury to Jalen Hurts, but that takes nothing away from what Daniels did in dismantling one of the best teams in football.

The No. 2 pick completed 24 of 39 passes for 258 yards, becoming the first rookie in NFL history to throw for five touchdowns while also recording at least 65 rushing yards. All against an Eagles defense that ranks fourth in total EPA, according to TruMedia's model.

His continued dominance puts him at 0.17 EPA/dropback on the season. That currently ranks as the sixth-best rookie QB season since 2000.

For anyone wondering about Bo Nix, it's not even remotely close: The Broncos rookie is currently tied with Kenny Pickett for 26th.

Brock Bowers has the best case to threaten Daniels for top rookie honors. And it does feel wrong that a record-setting season in which he immediately established himself as the league's top receiving tight end won't be enough. But there's no world in which award voters don't place more value on a quarterback putting himself in elite company while leading his team to the playoffs.

This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Commanders. Nobody would have been surprised if they ended up with another top-10 selection in April. But a home-run pick at the top of the draft has accelerated their timeline more than anyone could have imagined.

Just wait until Washington has a chance to build around its budding superstar signal-caller.

Vikings still flying

Let's settle another awards debate while we're at it: Kevin O'Connell should be everyone's Coach of the Year.

The subjectivity of this one tends to make it a little more difficult to predict. More often than not, though, the award ends up going to the coach whose team most exceeded expectations. Nobody fits that description better than O'Connell.

Most analysts, understandably, had the Vikings missing the playoffs this season. The offense seemed destined for regression after replacing Kirk Cousins with Sam Darnold, and losing rookie J.J. McCarthy to a preseason injury meant they'd have to make it work with the former first-round bust. Not exactly an inspiring situation.

Yet the Vikings have somehow only gotten better. A critical road win over the Seahawks this week makes it eight straight victories. Sam Darnold continued to thrive at the helm of O'Connell's QB-friendly offense, completing 22 of 35 passes for 246 yards and three touchdowns - his fifth game with at least three scores this campaign.

Minnesota's 13-2 record is tied with the Detroit for the best in the NFC. If they can get by the Packers next week, the Vikings have an opportunity to dethrone the Lions and steal the No. 1 seed in the regular-season finale.

Doing so in front of the nation in the Week 18 Sunday night spot would undoubtedly seal his award victory, but it shouldn't even come down to that. Nobody wants to meet the Vikings in January, no matter how the seeds shake out. That's the kind of team O'Connell has built when the rest of us were least expecting it.

A devastating win

Let's be clear: in-game tanking is not a real thing in the NFL. Nor will it ever be. You're simply never going to convince coaches and players - the majority of whom have little year-to-year job security - that it would be a good idea to lose.

All that being said, it's difficult to comprehend how much the Raiders may have sacrificed by winning a meaningless game over the Jaguars.

Las Vegas entered this week as one of two teams with only two wins. A strength of schedule tiebreaker tentatively had the Raiders projected to earn the No. 1 pick over the Giants. And it was easy to envision both teams losing out the rest of the way. Instead, beating Jacksonville in this year's Toilet Bowl sees the Raiders drop to No. 6.

The No. 1 selection, of course, comes with no guarantee. We've seen many top picks disappoint while other teams manage to find their franchise quarterbacks further down the board. And there's certainly nothing stopping you from trading up, if necessary.

But this isn't going to be another year in which six quarterbacks are drafted in the top 12 picks. Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward may be the only ones worthy of an early first-round selection. The Raiders falling so far down the board that they either miss out on a quarterback - or have to trade multiple first-rounders to go up and get one - would be a disaster for a team that can't afford to dwindle in QB purgatory any longer.

All for a December win that nobody will remember. This entire discussion, which inevitably leads to fans cheering against their own teams, is perhaps the best case imaginable for the NFL embracing a draft lottery. Questioning the value of wins isn't good for anyone.

Quick slants

A wasted opportunity

The Bucs were in control of their own destiny. A second-half surge, combined with a timely collapse from Kirk Cousins and the Falcons, seemingly cleared the way for Tampa Bay to cruise to the NFC South title. And a finishing stretch against the Cowboys, Panthers, and Saints didn't appear the least bit daunting after they ran the Chargers off their own field last week. But wins are never to be taken for granted in this league. The Bucs losing on Sunday night in Dallas puts the Falcons on top of the division by way of a head-to-head tiebreaker. Tampa Bay will now need a perfect finish and either one Falcons loss to win the division or two Commanders losses to steal a wild-card spot. Counting on help from other teams is not how you want to close out the season.

Hope for McCarthy?

Jerry Jones has gone out of his way to voice his support for Mike McCarthy down the stretch in a lost campaign. Most of us have probably thought nothing of his comments, seeing a coaching change as somewhat inevitable. But are we making a mistake there? The Cowboys are quietly finishing the season much stronger than expected without Dak Prescott. Sunday night's win over the Bucs, an inspired effort despite being eliminated from playoff contention, is their fourth in the last five weeks. McCarthy certainly deserves credit for holding this thing together when it easily could've fallen apart. Could that lead to a surprise extension this offseason? Jones stayed patient for nine-plus years of Jason Garrett despite only three playoff appearances over that stretch. McCarthy, who posted three straight 12-5 campaigns before this year, could easily get another chance.

Record watch

Saquon Barkley still has a chance to make history. A 150-yard performance in Sunday's loss to the Commanders puts him 267 yards short of Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record with two games to play. Matchups with the Cowboys and Giants figure to give him a decent shot at chasing down a mark that's stood since 1984, but it's worth noting that the Eagles could be locked into the No. 2 seed with nothing else to play for by Week 18. Philly is going to have an interesting decision to make when faced with the opportunity to treat the finale as a bye week. How close would Barkley have to be to the record to justify running out the offensive starters for a meaningless game?

Any time, any place

The Lions are outdoor cats, too. Sunday's trip to Chicago marked only their second game this season that wasn't played in a controlled environment. The results were much like the others. Jared Goff continued his spectacular season with another 336 yards and three touchdowns, leading the Lions to a convincing 34-17 win over the Bears. Detroit controlling its own destiny in the race for the No. 1 seed may make this entire conversation moot, but it should be reassuring to know that this team won't miss a beat if it's forced to go on the road in the playoffs. The offense is a well-oiled machine, no matter the environment, and the defense continues to do masterful work in overcoming a slew of injuries. Other NFC contenders are going to have to bring their best to knock off the Lions.

Penix starts strong

Box score stats alone won't tell you much about the impact of the Falcons benching Kirk Cousins this week. The defense did most of the heavy lifting in a 34-7 win over the hapless Giants, and Michael Penix Jr. finished the day completing 18 of 27 passes for 202 yards. The eye test tells a more encouraging story. Even in limited opportunities, it was easy to see how Penix might be able to elevate the offense. The No. 8 pick provides a meaningful upgrade over Cousins in terms of both arm talent and pocket mobility. Atlanta will count on him to turn that upside into more big plays next week against the Commanders. The Bucs losing on Sunday night puts the Falcons back in control of the NFC South, so this could be the first of several big games ahead for the rookie quarterback.

Broncos sweating?

The Broncos blowing Thursday night's game against the Chargers could have some significant consequences. A two-game cushion with two weeks to play doesn't seem so safe with a difficult schedule and multiple teams lurking in the race for the No. 7 seed. Denver finishes the year with games against Cincinnati and Kansas City. The Colts (@ Giants, vs. Jaguars), Dolphins (@ Browns, @ Jets), and Bengals (vs. Broncos, @ Steelers) have a chance to get to 9-8. Maybe the Broncos take care of business next week against the Bengals to lock up their spot. Or perhaps the Chiefs end up treating Week 18 as a second bye week if they clinch the 1-seed early, gifting the Broncos a win. But Denver has at least left the door open for some late drama in the AFC wild-card race.

Rodgers showing flashes

The football world - this column included - hasn't been the least bit shy about hitting Aaron Rodgers with the "washed up" label. Is there any chance that we were a little hasty in that regard? The Jets quarterback ranks sixth in EPA/dropback over the last three weeks. It's an extremely small sample size in a largely disappointing season, but this offense looks like a completely different unit with Rodgers and Davante Adams reigniting their connection. Is it that crazy to think that the Jets, having no other options at quarterback, opt to bring him back for another year? Or might there be another team out there willing to take a shot on a motivated Rodgers? It may not be the best idea, but we've seen crazier moves made out of desperation at quarterback. Rodgers' play ticking up as he gets further away from last year's Achilles injury creates the possibility that he's got a little something left in the tank.

Stat of the week