Offseason moves, injuries, coaching changes, and a 17-game schedule lead to more year-over-year NFL playoff turnover than you may think.
There's been an average of 5.85 new postseason teams compared to the year prior since 1990, according to USA Today's Nate Davis. That number increased to nearly seven - with a minimum of six new entries each season - over the past four years when the NFL added a seventh playoff spot in each conference.
With that knowledge and this year's odds of making the playoffs, we have a better sense of which 2023 postseason teams will miss out on a chance at the Super Bowl.
2023 AFC playoff teams
| Seed | Team | Odds to make/miss playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ravens | -280/+230 |
| 2 | Bills | -170/+140 |
| 3 | Chiefs | -550/+425 |
| 4 | Texans | -200/+160 |
| 5 | Browns | +140/-165 |
| 6 | Dolphins | -140/+120 |
| 7 | Steelers | +180/-215 |
All odds via theScore Bet
We'll start in the AFC, where last year's No. 1-seed Ravens are -280 (73.7% implied probability) to return to the postseason. These odds would likely be a lot shorter if they weren't in one of football's toughest divisions. The AFC North had three playoff teams last year, and the Bengals have a healthy Joe Burrow under center going into 2024.
The Chiefs are all but a lock in oddsmakers' eyes to make the playoffs. Their -550 price equals an 84.6% chance of returning to the postseason, which they've done every year Patrick Mahomes has been their starter. Kansas City is also going for its ninth straight AFC West title and is -250 to do so.
The surprise Texans have the third-shortest odds of making the playoffs in this group after C.J. Stroud quickly turned the franchise's outlook around in his rookie campaign. They're +105 to win back-to-back division titles.
With the average year-to-year turnover of three teams per conference, it's expected that the Browns and Steelers won't return to the playoffs, as well as either the Dolphins or Bills - or both.
Top AFC newcomers
| Team | Odds to make/miss playoffs |
|---|---|
| Bengals | -240/+200 |
| Jets | -170/+140 |
| Chargers | +115/-135 |
| Jaguars | +130/-150 |
| Colts | +145/-170 |
The Bengals have the best odds of making the playoffs among the potential newcomers. The Jets are also expected (63% implied probability) to replace one of last year's entries, which leaves the Chargers, Jaguars, and Colts potentially fighting for one playoff spot based on the odds.
2023 NFC playoff teams
| Seed | Team | Odds to make/miss playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49ers | -450/+360 |
| 2 | Cowboys | -195/+165 |
| 3 | Lions | -250/+210 |
| 4 | Buccaneers | +145/-170 |
| 5 | Eagles | -275/+225 |
| 6 | Rams | -110/-110 |
| 7 | Packers | -165/+140 |
Like the Chiefs, the 49ers are considered a shoo-in for another playoff appearance at -450 (81.8% implied probability). The Eagles and the Lions are the next two teams most likely to make the postseason.
However, it's not as obvious which 2023 NFC playoff teams will fail to return compared to the AFC. The Buccaneers are expected to miss out this year with only a 40.8% chance of making it, with the Rams the next least likely at -110.
Top NFC newcomers
| Team | Odds to make/miss playoffs |
|---|---|
| Falcons | -200/+170 |
| Bears | -110/-110 |
| Saints | +175/-210 |
| Seahawks | +180/-215 |
There could be some big surprises in the NFC.
Only the Falcons have better than -110 odds of making the playoffs among NFC newcomers. To get to three new teams in the conference, two of the Bears, Saints, Seahawks, or an even longer shot will have to outduel the incumbents.
According to the odds, the Rams could join the Buccaneers on the outside looking in, with the Cowboys and Packers potentially being in more danger of missing the playoffs than the public perceives.
There are several ways the 2024 playoff picture can shake out. Maybe there are five new teams in the AFC and only two in the NFC. Or, perhaps we have an outlier year with less turnover than seasons prior.
