NFL regular-season win totals: Chiefs, 49ers lead the way

NFL training camps are well underway and the first preseason game is in the books. For the next six months, the NFL will consume sports fans' lives.

We'll kick off our betting coverage of the 2024 season with a high-level look at the NFL using each team's win total, a good barometer of how teams stack up.

All odds via theScore Bet

The Chiefs and 49ers sit atop the league with an 11.5 total, though Kansas City has a slight edge due to the over being priced at -115.

Last year, only four teams eclipsed the 11.5 mark: the Ravens, Cowboys, Lions, and 49ers. The Super Bowl-winning Chiefs finished the regular season 11-6, their fewest wins since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starter in 2018.

Baltimore led the league with 13 wins last year, but oddsmakers don't like its chances of repeating that feat in the tough AFC. The Ravens' alternate total of 12.5 pays +275 on the over, an implied probability of 26.7%.

Missing Joe Burrow for seven games, the Bengals went 9-8 and finished last in the AFC North in 2023. With Burrow back and healthy - and sporting a new haircut - oddsmakers give the Bengals the AFC's second-highest win total.

Aaron Rodgers and the Jets enter the season with a 9.5 total, the same number as last season with shorter over odds at -150 compared to -125. The Jets won seven games without Rodgers under center last year, so it's not unreasonable for them to win three more with some stability at quarterback.

The Texans had the second-lowest win total of 5.5 going into last season. But after C.J. Stroud exceeded all expectations en route to a 10-win season for Houston, the betting market adjusted. Oddsmakers have given the team a 58.3% chance of repeating last year's win total. The Texans have the eighth-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl (+1600) and Stroud is the second favorite behind Mahomes to win MVP. Expectations for Houston have arguably risen too high.

Finally, the Bears have an 8.5 total with the over as a decently sized -155 favorite. They won seven games in 2023 without Caleb Williams, but after adding the first overall pick, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and D'Andre Swift, their offense looks dangerous on paper. The buzz around the Bears is palpable.

Oddsmakers suggest the above 12 teams will struggle to finish above .500.

The Buccaneers won the lowly NFC South last year with a 9-8 record, same as the division-rival Saints. However, with the Falcons' improvement and the Panthers' expected step forward, perhaps this division won't be the weakest in the league in 2024.

Speaking of the Panthers, their win total is set at 5.5 after winning only two games in 2023. A three-win improvement is a big leap, but the betting market seems to believe Carolina's offseason changes warrant the bump.

After moving on from Kirk Cousins, the Vikings' win total is 6.5 with the over the -155 favorite. The last time Minnesota won fewer than six games was 2013.

Finally, it's been a major fall from the mountaintop for the Patriots, who have the league's lowest win total and are the favorites to have the fewest wins. Perhaps Drake Maye can take over at quarterback and reinvigorate a franchise unfamiliar with losing.