The Thunder are slight 3.5-point favorites over the Spurs for Saturday's Game 7 of the Western Conference finals.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander called the series finale the "biggest game" of his career, heightening the stakes as both teams look to punch their ticket to the NBA Finals, where the Knicks await the winner.
These two Western Conference powerhouses have exchanged blows throughout the series, and the back-and-forth battle appears to be the beginning of a rivalry. The Spurs took Game 1 in Oklahoma City as 7.5-point underdogs, but the Thunder won Game 3 on the road to take back home-court advantage.
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While the series needs seven games, the contests haven't been all that close. Aside from Game 1's overtime result, the narrowest margin of victory has been nine points, with both squads posting wins of at least 20 points. Additionally, the favorite has covered in three straight.
Ultimately, this series boils down to each team's star player. The Thunder's hopes fall on Gilgeous-Alexander, and the Spurs' rest entirely on Victor Wembanyama.
In Oklahoma City's three victories, Gilgeous-Alexander scored over 25 points in each. However, the Spurs have held the defending two-time MVP below that number in the Thunder's three losses. His odds of recording at least 25 points in Game 7 are -470 (82.5% implied probability). If the key to OKC winning is as easy as the Canadian surpassing 25 points, then this squad is far more likely to advance than the 3.5-point spread suggests.
It's a similar situation for the Spurs, whose three wins came when Wembanyama scored more than 26 points. Meanwhile, they're 0-3 when the Thunder have held the French star below that total. Wembanyama's odds of scoring over 26.5 points are set at -105 (51.2% implied probability).
Gilgeous-Alexander's odds of winning the Western Conference finals MVP are -110, while Wembanyama's are +135. Those odds are nearly identical to their respective teams' chances of winning Game 7, highlighting the importance of each to their club's success.
Regardless of who moves on to face New York, the Western Conference representative will be the favorite to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy. The Knicks are currently +200 to win the championship, while the Thunder are still the favorite at +125 despite needing to win one more game.
If the Spurs - currently +240 to win the title - upset the Thunder in Game 7, the Knicks' odds will shorten slightly. However, the shift won't be enough for New York to be considered the favorite.
Simply put, Saturday's winner will have a great opportunity to win an NBA title, so perhaps Gilgeous-Alexander isn't exaggerating the game's importance.
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