Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projections for the 2025 season this week.
Here, we look at each team's offseason moves and predict which franchises will go over their projected win totals and which will go under.
Orioles: PECOTA still expects the O's to compete for the division title despite losing Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander. Orioles general manager Mike Elias had a puzzling offseason, failing to add much impact talent to Baltimore's talented young roster.
Yankees: Losing Juan Soto is tough. There's no sugarcoating it. However, the Yankees tried to replace Soto's 8.1 fWAR by adding Paul Goldschmidt, Cody Bellinger, Max Fried, and Devin Williams.
Blue Jays: The Blue Jays didn't land Soto but improved by bringing in Santander, Jeff Hoffman, Andrés Giménez, and Max Scherzer. They should be better than last season's 74-win team, but a 10-win improvement might be a bit of a stretch.
Rays: The Rays enter the season with a healthy rotation - something they couldn't say in 2024. A loaded pitching staff combined with an effective bullpen and scrappy lineup should lead to a better-than-expected 2025 campaign in Tampa.
Red Sox: Boston fans are right to feel underwhelmed. They were sold on the idea of an offseason defined by big acquisitions. But the club still boasts a lot of talent and significantly boosted the rotation with the additions of Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler. That alone could help Boston outperform expectations this season.
Twins: The Twins didn't do much this offseason, adding Harrison Bader and Danny Coulombe. It's hard to see how Minnesota is at least six games better than any other club in the division, even if Royce Lewis can put together a true breakout season.
Royals: The Royals added Jonathan India and a proven leverage reliever in Carlos Estévez. The moves are exactly what the doctor ordered in Kansas City and should help the Royals achieve a record above .500 in 2025.
Guardians: Cleveland added to the fringes of its roster and shouldn't be doubted. The rotation and bullpen remain strong, and Guardians fans can continue to count on the presence of José Ramírez to anchor the offense.
Tigers: The projections are bearish on Detroit after the franchise came within one win of the ALCS in 2024. The additions of Gleyber Torres and Jack Flaherty should provide a nice boost to manager A.J. Hinch.
White Sox: There's not much to be excited about for White Sox fans heading into 2025. Even the most diehard fan probably can't name half the roster right now. It's hard to fathom how this current group can improve on last season's win total (41) by this much.
Rangers: The additions of Joc Pederson and Jake Burger should bolster what looks like one of the AL's deepest and most potent lineups. Chris Young also prioritized the bullpen, adding five new relievers. Rangers fans are hoping Jacob deGrom can stay healthy and give the rotation a true game breaker.
Astros: Houston rallied from a terrible start to win the AL West once again in 2024. Things will look different this season with Alex Bregman likely gone and the addition of Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes. The rotation and bullpen are still excellent, giving Houston another strong chance of contending for a division crown.
Mariners: Seattle fans aren't too happy with the club's lack of moves in the offseason. The Mariners missed the postseason in consecutive campaigns and could be in tough to avoid making it three straight in 2025. They'll need a return to form from star outfielder Julio Rodríguez to be in the playoff mix and another sterling effort from the starting rotation.
Angels: Los Angeles hasn't made the playoffs since 2014 and continues to live in obscurity. Hopefully Mike Trout can stay healthy this season, and general manager Perry Minasian added veterans like Yusei Kikuchi and Jorge Soler to try to raise the floor. The team should improve on its 63-win season from last year, but it's hard to see more than 70 victories.
Athletics: The Athletics were surprisingly active in the offseason, bringing in Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs to help bolster the rotation. Adding veterans to an intriguing core of homegrown talent that went 32-32 after the All-Star break should have fans excited about the franchise's prospects for the first time in years. We'll see how the team adapts to life in a new city.
Braves: Jurickson Profar was Atlanta's lone major addition this winter, but the Braves still project to be the NL East's best team in 2025 since they'll be getting Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider back at some point.
Mets: New York is a deeper and better team after re-signing Pete Alonso, a move that always felt bound to happen. Although the rotation still has a few question marks, New York is clearly better overall and will be battling for the division title all summer. The Summer of Soto in Queens is set to arrive.
Phillies: It feels like PECOTA is sleeping on the Phillies as they enter a critical season. With a veteran lineup that should be hungry after last year's early exit and new addition Jesús Luzardo boosting an already elite rotation, it wouldn't be any surprise to see the Phils back on top of this division.
Nationals: The Nats will be a better team in 2025 as their young core continues to gain experience. But they're still a couple years away from contending and are fighting an uphill battle in the NL East.
Marlins: It's going to be another long year in Miami, made longer by the fact the team plays in this division. If nothing else, fans can count on a healthy Sandy Alcantara giving them a chance every five days until he's likely traded.
Cubs: Chicago isn't a perfect team by any stretch, but it's likely the most complete NL Central club. That should be enough to get the franchise back to the top of this division.
Brewers: Milwaukee kept its recent run of success going with a shocking division title in 2024. But after losing Willy Adames and trading Devin Williams, it's fair to think its luck may finally be running out.
Cardinals: St. Louis seems to be trying to move into a rebuild but is stuck with an expensive, aging roster and a third baseman who wants to be traded. That's a recipe for disaster.
Pirates: Taking the over here isn't a sign of faith in the Pirates. But while they may not contend, they have the talent to finish around .500 or higher and continue their ascendancy.
Reds: Don't sleep on the Reds, who have a boatload of talented young stars guided by an experienced hand in Terry Francona. They also play in a weak division that could be theirs for the taking.
Dodgers: The only thing that can stop this team is injuries - and even that might not be enough. There are barely any holes on this Dodgers roster.
D-Backs: Adding Corbin Burnes to an already excellent rotation should help the D-Backs get back to the playoffs. It's fair to argue that Arizona is the second-best team in the NL West.
Padres: San Diego is still a very good team and will contend for a wild-card spot, but it's not as good as it was in 2024 after an unusually quiet offseason. There's a glaring hole in left field, and trade rumors continue to surround star pitchers Dylan Cease and Michael King. If either of them gets moved, this projection shifts to under very quickly.
Giants: Buster Posey was aggressive in his first offseason running the Giants, shelling out big bucks for Willy Adames and Justin Verlander. But this still feels like a .500 team overall. If the Giants get over 78 wins, it likely won't be by much.
Rockies: It feels impossible to take the under here - until you take a look at the Rockies' roster. This team is going to be very bad, and not even the best infield defense in MLB history will be able to change that.
