Road to the Masters: Latest analysis heading toward Augusta

The countdown to the Masters is on! We are less than 25 days away from the opening tee shot at Augusta National, where Rory McIlroy will attempt to defend his green jacket.

Plenty of meaningful golf has already been played this season, with only three events remaining until the Masters. Stay with us for analysis of all the notable happenings in the world of golf leading into the season's first major championship.

Jump to: Scottie's struggles | Is Rory hurt? | Young's big win | Concern for Morikawa | Aberg's collapse | Gotterup's emergence | Quick hits

Scottie's struggles

Scottie Scheffler won his first start of the new season at The American Express, but the narrative around his year has shifted. He's struggled in opening rounds and hasn't recorded a top-20 finish in back-to-back starts.

In his three events following his victory, Scheffler was 5-over relative to par on Thursdays, losing an average of three shots to the field each opening day. However, he was a combined 51-under during the remaining three rounds, which is why his worst finish during that stretch was a T12 at the Genesis Invitational. Had he shot even-par in Round 1 at both the WM Phoenix Open and Pebble Beach Pro-Am, he'd have three victories this season.

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The world No. 1 is not hitting his irons nearly as well as he was last season. He currently ranks 78th on TOUR in strokes gained: approach, a stat he's finished first in over the past three seasons.

Scheffler will likely play the Houston Open as his final tune-up for the Masters. He's finished T2 in Houston the past two years, so his performance there will give us a good glimpse at how his game is ahead of Augusta.

Is Rory hurt?

McIlroy was trending toward a victory until he was forced to withdraw from the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a back injury. He was coming off a T2 at the Genesis Invitational, so the ailment could not have come at a worse time.

He managed to tee it up at The Players, but finished in a tie for 46th. However, he lost over five strokes putting while gaining nearly five shots off the tee, which indicates his back is OK. All eyes will be on McIlroy in his next start, which will likely be in Texas if he's feeling healthy enough, before he heads to Augusta to defend his Masters title.

The last person to successfully defend the green jacket was Tiger Woods in the early 2000s. It took McIlroy over a decade to break his cursed Augusta track record, but now that he's broken through, perhaps he can become the fourth player to win back-to-back Masters.

Young's big win

It was only a matter of time before Cameron Young won a big-time tournament, doing so with some clutch shots on Sunday at The Players Championship.

Young has performed exceptionally well in majors during his short career. He has six top-10s in 16 starts, two of those coming at the Masters. He plays some of his best golf in the strongest fields on the toughest courses.

The big-hitting American has made drastic improvements to his putting and approach play, which has elevated his floor and made him far more consistent over the past two years. His ability to get hot with the flatstick is what can vault him into contention any given week.

Do not be shocked to see Young's strong play continue at Augusta. The previous two Players champions (McIlroy and Scheffler) both won the green jacket in the same year.

Concern for Morikawa

Collin Morikawa ended a winless streak that dated back to October 2023 with a victory at Pebble Beach earlier in February, but withdrew from The Players with what appeared to be either a back or oblique injury.

The injury may have derailed all of the momentum Morikawa had built in the early part of the season. He was a favorite to win at TPC Sawgrass, and now, he may not be 100% for the Masters. Morikawa is not playing this week in Tampa, and it's unknown if he will make another start before Augusta.

Aberg's collapse

Ludvig Aberg had The Players Championship firmly in his grasp before finding the water on Nos. 11 and 12, crushing his chances with two bad swings.

Winning on the PGA TOUR is extremely difficult, especially when you carry a lead for multiple days. Aberg's demise marked the third tournament in a row in which a player choked away a sizable advantage. Daniel Berger led by as many as four on Sunday at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and Shane Lowry blew a four-shot lead with three holes remaining at PGA National.

Hopefully, Aberg learns a ton from the mistakes he made on the weekend at TPC Sawgrass and will be better prepared for when he puts himself in a similar position at another marquee event. He's made two starts at the Masters and finished second and seventh, so perhaps he'll have a shot at redemption very soon.

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Gotterup's emergence

Chris Gotterup is the only multi-time winner on the PGA TOUR this season, claiming the Sony Open and WM Phoenix Open to assert himself into the conversation as one of the best young players in golf. His two victories also prove that outdueling McIlroy at the Scottish Open last year wasn't a fluke.

The 26-year-old has never played in the Masters and has competed in only two Players Championships, making this a huge season for him to establish himself on the game's biggest stages. Last year, Gotterup placed third at the Open Championship just a week after winning in Scotland, and he's continued to raise his profile with two impressive titles this year.

Quick hits

Matthew Fitzpatrick

The Englishman is playing fantastic golf, ranking seventh on the PGA TOUR in strokes gained: tee to green. He nearly won The Players and has a good chance of winning this week's Valspar Championship. He has two top-10s in his career at the Masters, and could easily add a third if this form keeps up.

Brooks Koepka

Koepka turned in his second-best Players finish last week, finishing in a tie for 13th. He was fifth in the field in strokes gained: approach and was ninth tee to green, which are both huge positives ahead of major season. If Koepka can get the putter heating up ahead of the Masters, he'll be among the favorites to claim the green jacket.

Justin Thomas

Thomas returned from back surgery at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but missed the cut with two rounds of 79. However, he rebounded well at The Players, finishing in a tie for eighth thanks to some impressive iron play. We'll have to see how he plays at the Valspar Championship, but another high finish should indicate he's 100% healthy and ready to make a run for his first green jacket.

Xander Schauffele

After winning two majors in 2024, Schauffele had a quiet 2025 until he earned a victory in Japan to close his season. That winning form appears to have carried over into the new year, recording two top-20 results in signature events and a third-place showing at TPC Sawgrass. He has five top-10s in eight Masters starts, so you have to like his chances as the season's first major.

Patrick Reed

Reed left LIV Golf but can't return to the PGA TOUR until the current season is over. In the meantime, Reed is asserting his dominance on the DP World Tour with two victories and a runner-up showing in his first four starts. He's climbed from 44th in the world to 17th, and he'll be one to track ahead of the Masters, a tournament he won in 2018. Finishing third at Augusta last year, Reed could be in some of his best form in a long time ahead of the 2026 edition.

Justin Rose

Rose picked up a trophy at the Farmers Insurance Open, proving his days of winning are far from over. The Englishman lost in a playoff to McIlroy at last year's Masters and has come close at Augusta on several occasions. Even at 45 years old, you can't count Rose out of claiming his second career major.

Jacob Bridgeman

Winning a signature event at Riviera is no easy task, but doing so alongside McIlroy in the final pairing for your first PGA TOUR victory makes it that much more impressive. Bridgeman has been extremely steady this season and could be in the midst of a breakthrough, similar to Ben Griffin's last year, which earned him a spot on the American Ryder Cup team.

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