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The Players Championship is approaching, which means bettors get to dissect the most stacked odds board of the season so far.
Forty-seven of the top 50 players in the world will take on the iconic TPC Sawgrass, home of the famous island green at No. 17. Defending champion Rory McIlroy enters as the heavy betting favorite at +750, which creates rare value for some of the game's biggest names.
The course
- 7,189 yards, par 72
- Bermuda grass greens
- Water in play on 17 holes
- Three of four par 5s under 560 yards
- Seven of 10 par 4s under 470 yards
Previous winners
2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
2017: Si Woo Kim (-10)
2016: Jason Day (-15)
2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)
2014: Martin Kaymer (-13)
2013: Tiger Woods (-13)
2012: Matt Kuchar (-13)
2011: K.J. Choi (-13)
2010: Tim Clark (-16)
The favorites
| Player | Odds | Best Players result |
|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | +750 | 1st (2019) |
| Jon Rahm | +1200 | T-12 (2019) |
| Justin Thomas | +1400 | T-3 (2016) |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +2000 | T-20 (2019) |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2200 | T-5 (2019) |
| Dustin Johnson | +2500 | T-5 (2019) |
| Patrick Cantlay | +2500 | T-22 (2017) |
| Sungjae Im | +2500 | N/A |
Once again, Rory McIlroy tops the betting board. The defending champion arrives at TPC Sawgrass in peak form, having recorded his seventh straight top-five performance last week. However, no player has ever won this event in consecutive years, so backing +750 odds in hopes that McIlroy can break the trend is far from worth it.
Jon Rahm (+1200) and Justin Thomas (+1400) hold the next two positions on the odds board. Rahm was in a position to win at TPC Sawgrass last year as the 54-hole leader but made a costly mistake on the back nine that ruined his chances. Thomas is probably the best value of players priced below +2000 if you really want a selection from the top, but there are more enticing options further down.
Bryson DeChambeau (+2000) and Tommy Fleetwood (+2200) are both slightly overpriced. DeChambeau's lack of success in the Tour's biggest tournaments is concerning; when you combine The Players with the other four majors, his best result in 14 attempts is a tie for 15th, which came at the 2016 U.S. Open. Fleetwood is a perfectly fine player, but +2200 is far too short given the quality of players priced much higher.
Patrick Cantlay (+2500) offers the best value among the favorites. He has all the tools and early-career results that point toward a breakthrough win at The Players, similar to what Adam Scott, Sergio Garcia, Rickie Fowler, and Jason Day did.
Dustin Johnson (+2500) will garner plenty of attention as he's rarely priced over +2000, but his game isn't nearly sharp enough to instill confidence that he can win at TPC Sawgrass, a course he's found little success at throughout his career.
Finally, Sungjae Im continued his remarkable run by nearly winning his second straight event last week. He's simply unproven, through no fault of his own, in these major-championship events to warrant attention at +2500.
The next tier
| Player | Odds | Best Players result |
|---|---|---|
| Hideki Matsuyama | +2800 | T-7 (2016) |
| Webb Simpson | +2800 | 1st (2018) |
| Xander Schauffele | +2800 | T-2 (2018) |
| Adam Scott | +3300 | 1st (2004) |
| Brooks Koepka | +3300 | T-11 (2018) |
| Patrick Reed | +3300 | T-22 (2017) |
| Gary Woodland | +4000 | T-11 (2014) |
| Marc Leishman | +4000 | T-8 (2013) |
| Tyrrell Hatton | +4000 | T-41 (2017) |
Brooks Koepka is +3300. To repeat, the four-time major winner and former world No. 1 who seemingly only shows up for the biggest events is +3300. If you want to go ahead and blindly bet Koepka, who showed signs of life in the final round at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, no one should convince you otherwise.
The three players at +2800 are all very interesting. Hideki Matsuyama can show up any given week if his putter cooperates and is on a run of good form. Webb Simpson already has a victory this season and is a former winner at TPC Sawgrass. His skill set translates perfectly to this event and is more likely to be in contention than not. Xander Schauffele was a runner-up to Simpson in 2018 and, like Cantlay, is due for a marquee victory this season. All three players offer better value than DeChambeau and Fleetwood.
Two green jacket winners, Adam Scott and Patrick Reed, are priced at +3300 and flying under the radar this week. Scott is a former Players champion and hasn't missed a cut at this event since 2011. Reed's been playing very well over the past few months and earned a victory two events ago. Both are likely to be underdogs in head-to-head matchup bets and are certainly worth considering.
Gary Woodland (+4000) is enjoying a great season and should find the winner's circle in 2020, but he needs to tidy up his short game before he wins. Pencil Woodland in for a victory next week at the Valspar Championship.
Marc Leishman (+4000) and Tyrrell Hatton (+4000) just went toe to toe at Bay Hill and are likely exhausted (or hungover, in Hatton's case) after an extremely tough week. Neither has a track record at TPC Sawgrass.
The long shots
TPC Sawgrass produces all sorts of winners because it's relatively short and doesn't reward just one skill set, which is why long shots like Si Woo Kim and Tim Clark have won within the last 10 years.
The loaded field means odds on some noteworthy players become inflated, such as Jordan Spieth and Jason Day at +8000. Here are a few worth consideration (top-five, top-10 odds in parentheses):
- Collin Morikawa (+5000) - He's already one of the best ball-strikers in the world and owns the longest active cut streak, as he's yet to miss a cut in his PGA Tour career. (T5:+900, T10: +400)
- Paul Casey (+5000) - His last two PGA Tour wins came in Florida, and he's getting to the green more efficiently than most. If a few putts drop, Casey will be in the mix Sunday. (T5:+1100, T10: +500)
- Matthew Fitzpatrick (+6600) - The Englishman closed out Bay Hill with the round of the day. If he draws inspiration from Hatton's recent victory, Fitzpatrick has a real chance of winning at a course that suits him to a tee. (T5:+1100, T10: +500)
- Abraham Ancer (+8000): He finished T-12 is his debut at The Players last year and has gained valuable experience since. He drives it straight and can get red-hot with the putter. (T5:+1400, T10: +650)
- Shane Lowry (+9000): He won The Open last year and is priced with players whose pedigrees pale in comparison. He turned in a respectable T-21 at the Honda Classic two weeks ago. (T5:+1400, T10: +650)
- Russell Henley (+15000): He gained over 10 strokes through approach shots at the Honda Classic and tends to play well on shorter courses, where accuracy is required. His top-five odds are very juicy. (T5:+3300, T10: +1400)
Picks to win
Patrick Cantlay (+2500)
Cantlay possesses all the attributes of a Players champion. He's a world-class ball-striker who can make enough putts to win. The 27-year-old has made runs in major championships before and has enough experience at TPC Sawgrass and on other big stages to handle the pressure of being in contention Sunday.
Xander Schauffele (+2800)
Schauffele is playing below expectations but still pumping out top-25 results. He's two events removed from gaining 10.2 strokes on approach shots and finally found something with his putter, gaining strokes on the greens in all four rounds at Bay Hill. His +2800 price is the highest it will be for the remainder of the year.
Shane Lowry (+9000)
Lowry is the current Open Championship winner and has two worldwide victories since the start of 2019. Both of his finishes on the PGA Tour in 2020 were inside the top 30, his last coming at the Honda Classic where he gained five strokes tee-to-green and putted the ball well. You won't find a golfer in a similar price range with Lowry's pedigree and current form.
