NHL players are making their long-awaited return to the Olympics. Let's highlight which ones could tip the scales for their respective countries by picking X-factors for Canada, Czechia, Finland, Sweden, and the United States.
We're not just looking at each country's best player. (Of course Connor McDavid playing well is paramount to Canada's success.) We dig deeper and highlight a variety of candidates who are capable of impacting games in unique ways.
Tom Wilson, Canada 🇨🇦
Wilson's inclusion was a point of debate before and after he made the cut. He's one of only four forwards who weren't on Canada's 4 Nations Face-Off squad but played his way to Milan by generating 49 points in 50 games prior to the break. Canada doesn't necessarily need Wilson to be a point-per-game player at the Olympics, but the Washington Capitals enforcer is a rare commodity in today's game. He contributes well at even strength, is sound defensively, and can be trusted on the penalty kill.
Despite blossoming into a well-rounded power forward, Wilson's physicality is his most recognizable trait. He's one of the NHL's most fearsome hitters and has a long list of supplemental discipline. Under IIHF officiating, he'll need to show some restraint. Wilson is capable of overwhelming opponents on smaller ice and being an impact depth player for Canada, but he'll have a short leash for mistakes. Any costly penalties or suspensions will infuriate Canadians who were opposed to him making the roster over skilled players, such as Connor Bedard or Mark Scheifele.
Lukas Dostal, Czechia 🇨🇿
With Russia ineligible to compete in international events, Czechia can comfortably be considered the best hockey country spurned from the 4 Nations. The Czechs won gold at the 2024 world championships and have reached the podium in four consecutive world juniors. Their program is working and now has an opportunity to showcase its talent at the highest level.
Dostal was vital to Czechia's world championship victory, posting a .939 save percentage and three shutouts in eight games. He also shined at the junior level, so he's proven to excel when representing his country. Dostal flies under the radar playing for the Anaheim Ducks, but he's produced sterling numbers through the organization's rebuild and is a big reason they're in the playoff mix this year. His 43.01 goals saved above expected over the past two seasons ranks seventh among all netminders.
Choosing a goaltender as an X-factor is a bit of a cop-out, but in a short event, stability between the pipes is paramount.
Roope Hintz, Finland 🇫🇮
Finland is missing its best player in Aleksander Barkov, the NHL's premier two-way center. Hintz may well be the next best thing. The Dallas Stars pivot ranks fourth among all forwards this season in Evolving-Hockey's even-strength defense metric and has contributed a respectable 44 points in 52 games.
Hintz's role is crucial to Finland's medal hopes since he can go head to head with opposing countries' top lines. Ideally, he's up to the task of shutting down the world's best players, which will help his teammates create offense. Finland doesn't have the firepower to play run-and-gun with the likes of Canada or the U.S., and its arsenal of offensive weapons tails off considerably after Mikko Rantanen and Sebastian Aho. The team will need to stick to its identity and commit to a tight defensive game to find success in Milan, but that task becomes much easier with a player like Hintz leading the charge.
Rasmus Dahlin, Sweden 🇸🇪
Dahlin is in the Norris Trophy conversation for his role in positioning the Buffalo Sabres to snap their 14-year playoff drought. He ranks seventh in scoring among defensemen this season with 48 points in 52 games and is the third-highest-producing Swede in the league. His impact on Sweden's blue line will be immense, as the Tre Kronor looks to medal at the Olympics for only the second time since capturing gold in 2006.
Dahlin is likely to be Sweden's most relied-upon defenseman. Victor Hedman has appeared in only three games since returning from injury and didn't play more than 17 minutes in any of them. Erik Karlsson has enjoyed a nice bounce-back season but won't be taking top-pair duties or power-play time from Dahlin. Gustav Forsling will probably be used in a shutdown pairing, while Rasmus Andersson, Philip Broberg, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson simply aren't as versatile as Dahlin. The Sabres star, who's averaging 24:33 per contest this season, will be indispensable for Sweden in getting the puck to its talented cast of forwards at even strength and quarterbacking a potentially lethal power play.
Kyle Connor, United States 🇺🇸
For how deep the United States' roster is, most of the discussion has been about who didn't make the team. Jason Robertson and Cole Caufield were notable snubs, but the U.S. isn't lacking talent whatsoever on the wing. One of its top options is Connor, who should be bound for a top-six role after putting up 64 points in 56 games before the break. He also possesses game-breaking speed that fellow forwards Brady and Matthew Tkachuk, Auston Matthews, and Matt Boldy don't bring to the table.
On top of his skill set, Connor is a player to watch on account of his sour ending to the 4 Nations Face-Off. He was scratched for the final and watched from the press box as the U.S. failed to solve Canada. If Connor arrives in Milan Cortina with vengeance in mind, he could be in for a huge tournament.
