The Week 6 slate lacks an abundance of must-see games, largely due to the injuries piling up across the league. However, we've got a couple of intriguing divisional matchups, a Jaguars-Texans showdown in London, and Sunday Night Football between the Cowboys and Packers.
Here are our picks against the spread, favorite touchdown scorer bets, and three player props to target for Week 6.
👉 Check out all of the Week 6 lines available on theScore Bet here
Our trio of betting writers - Eric Patterson, Brenden Deeg, and Dane Belbeck - will make picks against the spread for Sunday's slate and Monday Night Football all season.
Eric Patterson breaks down his favorite picks against the spread, adding his own analysis and insights. He'll also identify touchdown scorers and player props to target.
🏈 Bet: Jaguars (-2.5)
The Jaguars stayed in London after beating the Eagles in Week 5, while the Texans had to travel overseas and get acclimated. Jacksonville's advantage can't be overstated. This will be the Jaguars' third time playing back-to-back London games, and they're 2-0 in the second contest of the trip. They beat the Bills 25-20 as 5.5-point underdogs in 2023 and then handled the Patriots 32-16 as 6.5-point favorites last season.
The spread suggests this is being treated as a neutral-site game, but the Jaguars have a clear advantage that isn't being accounted for. 👉 Add the Jaguars to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
🏈 Bet: Steelers (-2.5)
I was skeptical about the Steelers' offensive resurgence, but they've become a juggernaut since Jaylen Warren took over as the featured back. Pittsburgh is averaging 29.3 points per game since Rico Dowdle exited the lineup, and head coach Mike McCarthy made it clear that Warren will remain the workhorse even if Dowdle returns.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers will go with backup quarterback Jalon Daniels for a third straight game. They have the rest advantage after beating the Cowboys last Thursday night, but this spread is an overreaction to what was - as a stadium worker put it - an embarrassing effort from Dallas rather than a special accomplishment by the Bucs. 👉 Add the Steelers to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
🏈 Bet: Jets (+7.5)
Drake Maye has found his groove again, torching the Raiders and Bills in back-to-back games. However, I give the Jets' defense much more credit than the Bills' or the Raiders'. New York has conceded the sixth-fewest yards per game (313.4) and the fifth-fewest points (19.2). Maye has struggled against good defenses this season, and while he may be playing better football, the quarterback still has to prove he can cover a 7.5-point spread.
In the first three weeks of the season against the Seahawks, Steelers, and Jaguars, the Patriots only averaged 12 points per game. While I expect New England to score more than that Sunday, it's hard to cover big spreads when your offense can't score touchdowns. I expect a great defensive effort from the Jets in a divisional matchup to keep this one close. 👉 Add the Jets to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
🏈 Bet: Raiders (+4.5)
The Bills are undoubtedly the better team, but this feels a bit like a trap if you're backing Buffalo. Josh Allen's group won an emotional overtime game on Monday Night Football, so the host Raiders have the rest advantage. Additionally, the Bills' bye is next week, which may have some of their players looking forward to a week off rather than focused on finishing this game strong.
Meanwhile, the Raiders just got embarrassed on the road in New England, conceding 45 points in a game that got so out of hand that Las Vegas gave Fernando Mendoza some regular-season reps. This is a prime letdown spot for the Bills, while the Raiders will be hungry to rebound. 👉 Add the Raiders to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
🏈 Bet: Packers (-1.5)
Sunday Night Football features a meeting between two very similar teams in the Cowboys and Packers. Both sides rely heavily on their passing attack while struggling mightily to slow anyone down on defense.
The Packers dismantled a Tyson Bagent-led Bears team last week, continually converting big plays through the air. The Cowboys struggle against the pass as well, giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. That sets the stage for Jordan Love, Christian Watson, and Matthew Golden to have huge games for the second straight week. The Cowboys obviously have the firepower to hang with the Packers, but I trust Green Bay's defense more, so I'll side with the home team in what should be a shootout. 👉 Add the Packers to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
Season-long record (7-8, 21.9% ROI)
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (-115)
When the Rams get into the red zone, Davante Adams is their go-to guy. Adams leads the Rams in target share inside the 20-yard line (28%) and has four touchdowns this season. The Cardinals have allowed the most touchdowns to wide receivers (10). The Rams' implied team total is 32.5 points, meaning Adams should have plenty of opportunities to score.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (-115)
Brock Bowers acts more like a wide receiver than a traditional tight end. That should help him have a massive outing against the Bills, who give up the most fantasy points to wideouts in the league. Bowers has scored in every game he's played this season and has a 35.7% target share inside the red zone.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+165)
It's tempting to take Josh Allen from the Bills, but his odds are now -160, which is getting pretty short for a touchdown bet. Instead, I'll side with Dalton Kincaid, who's primed to have a strong game after a couple of rough performances.
The Raiders have conceded six touchdowns to tight ends this season, and Kincaid is still second among tight ends in yards per route run behind Bowers, according to SumerSports. Kincaid struggled against the Rams and Patriots, who defend tight ends well. The Raiders don't, making Kincaid a nice bounce-back option.
Season-long record (7-7, -9.2% ROI)
🏈 Bet: Over 4.5 receptions (-130)
The Texans have a stout run defense, which is why teams call passing plays against them so often. The Texans have allowed the fourth-most targets to wide receivers (112) and are tied for the third-most receptions (73). Trevor Lawrence's pass attempt prop is 31.5, and Parker Washington's target share is 26%. That puts him in line for at least eight targets against Houston. Catching five passes against a team that gives up a lot of receptions to wide receivers doesn't seem like much to ask for.
🏈 Bet: Over 10.5 rushing yards (-125)
Part of what makes Tyler Shough a solid starting quarterback is his ability to run - he's rushed for over 10.5 yards in eight of his 15 career starts. Last week marked the first time in his career he didn't record a single rush, but the Vikings' defense may be the best in the league, so you can disregard that performance. The Giants were just gashed by Jayden Daniels for 103 yards on the ground and have conceded the sixth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks. I'd expect Shough to go back to what's made him successful and use his legs a few times in this contest, making 10.5 yards a low bar to clear.
🏈 Bet: Over 44.5 rushing yards (-105)
Blake Corum's usage declined over the past three weeks. He only rushed the ball 16 times over those three outings and didn't rack up 20 yards in any of those games. However, those were three straight tightly contested matchups in which the Rams preferred to keep Kyren Williams on the field. In two lopsided games to start the season, Corum handled 22 total carries for an average of 66.5 yards per game. The Rams are 12.5-point favorites at home against the Cardinals, who are surrendering 110 yards per game to running backs. I expect to see a lot more Corum in this game than we did in Weeks 3-5.
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