NFL Sunday conference title bets: Can Broncos overcome Nix's absence?
Our trio of writers came back down to earth in the divisional round following unbelievably successful wild-card matchups. But they all still have plenty of bankroll to work with after profiting through 10 playoff games.
| Writer | Playoff record (W-L) | Bankroll |
|---|---|---|
| Deeg | 11-13 | $1059.85 |
| Oshtry | 11-13 | $1065.90 |
| Patterson | 9-18 | $1005.50 |
Let's savor the three remaining contests of the season, starting with a pair of enticing conference championships on Sunday. We've got you covered with each writer's picks, props, touchdown scorers, and parlays for the NFC and AFC title games.
👉 Check out all of the markets available for championship Sunday on theScore Bet here
Jump to: Patriots-Broncos summary | Rams-Seahawks
🏈 Pick: Broncos +4.5
Oshtry - Bet $100 to win $90
The Broncos opened as short favorites but jumped to 5.5-point underdogs after the announcement that Bo Nix suffered a season-ending ankle injury. The line has since settled at 4.5. While Nix has been terrific, particularly in the clutch, his absence isn't worth a nearly seven-point swing. Home underdogs of four or more points are 10-0 against the spread in the playoffs over the last 50 years.
Sean Payton is the perfect play-caller to simplify the playbook for backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham. Despite not having a reliable running game against a strong defensive front, I'd still expect Denver to move the ball enough to stay competitive in a low-scoring contest.
The Broncos' defense has led it to this point. Denver owns a top-10 regular-season scoring defense and just forced five turnovers against the Bills' potent offense. Meanwhile, the Patriots' offense, and most notably Drake Maye, has somewhat struggled in the postseason. Maye has thrown four picks in his first two playoff games and failed to complete over 60% of his passes in either.
Against another daunting defense on the road, Maye should have a hard time. We've seen backup quarterbacks lead teams on playoff runs before, and Stidham could be the latest. At the very least, a defensive battle featuring few touchdowns makes it hard to imagine either team pulling away.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+130)
Oshtry - Bet $35 to win $45
Harvey hasn't reached the end zone in the last three games, and the Broncos only gave him six carries in their opening playoff contest. However, Nix's absence changes the equation. Denver must rely more on the running attack, especially in the red zone, without the threat of Nix taking off.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+185)
Patterson - Bet $45 to win $78.75
If there's a position the Broncos are weak at defending, it's tight end. They allowed the seventh-most yards per game (62) and the 10th-most receptions (5.72) to the position this season. Henry leads the Patriots in receiving touchdowns and has scored three times in his last five games.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+550)
Deeg - Bet $15 to win $82.50
Let's take a swing. A backup quarterback's best friend is the tight end position, and these are great odds considering Engram ranks third on the Broncos in targets and second in red-zone receiving yards. New England hasn't been great at slowing down tight ends, placing 22nd in targets surrendered and 21st in receptions allowed to the position.
🏈 Bet: Over 0.5 interceptions (+110)
Oshtry - Bet $30 to win $33
Maye at plus money to throw a pick? How can we not pounce on that after he's posted four interceptions in two playoff games? Maye has struggled against pressure, which the Broncos consistently bring. He'll keep his interception streak alive.
🏈 Bet: Over 0.5 sacks (+140)
Patterson - Bet $55 to win $77
Cooper is second on the Broncos in sacks with eight and won't be getting the same double-team treatment as fellow pass-rusher Nik Bonitto. Maye has taken five sacks in back-to-back outings, and there's a good chance he takes that many again against Denver's stifling front seven.
🏈 Bet: over 71.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)
Deeg - Bet $35 to win $30.43
Even with Henderson showing burst down the stretch this season, Stevenson has remained New England's go-to running back. This number is far too low, as Stevenson has eclipsed this total in seven straight contests. Denver's defense is great, but it's shown some holes in stopping the run in the second half of the season, and James Cook just torched them for 141 scrimmage yards in the divisional round.
🏈 Bet: Over 3.5 receptions (+135)
Deeg - Bet $30 to win $40.50
Stidham targeted his running backs 21 times in his two starts with Denver in 2023. Payton will likely scheme up easy completions for the 29-year-old, and Harvey should see a ton of action in the passing attack. Harvey eclipsed this total in four of his last six games, and you get good value here at +135 odds. The Patriots' defense has also allowed the fifth-most receptions to opposing running backs in 2025.
Patriots-Broncos summary
| Patterson | Oshtry | Deeg |
|---|---|---|
| Henry TD | Broncos +4.5 | Engram TD |
| Cooper o0.5 sacks | Harvey TD | Harvey o3.5 receptions |
| Maye o0.5 INT | Stevenson o71.5 rec. + rush yards |
👉 Check out all of the markets available for championship Sunday on theScore Bet here
Jump to: Rams-Seahawks summary
🏈 Pick: Rams +3 (-125)
Deeg - Bet $82 to win $65
These two teams met twice in the regular season, and the combined stats in both contests were as close as can be:
| Head-to-head stats | Rams | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Points | 58 | 57 |
| Yards | 830 | 829 |
| Touchdowns | 7 | 5 |
Given how these clubs fared against each other in the regular season, getting a field-goal spread at this price is too good to pass up. Los Angeles' offense will now get to see Mike Macdonald's defense for the third time, and Sean McVay is the league's best offensive schemer. The Rams led the league in offensive success rate, ranked second in EPA/play, and scored 58 combined points against Seattle this campaign.
Another thing to keep in mind is the injuries the Seahawks are dealing with heading into Sunday. Sam Darnold has been limited in practice all week due to an oblique injury, and Seattle didn't ask him to test it much in last week's start against San Francisco. Darnold's offensive line is also banged up, as Charles Cross didn't practice Wednesday and Thursday because of a foot issue. Cross's backup, Josh Jones, is questionable with foot and ankle injuries, while third-string tackle Amari Knight is listed as doubtful. Kenneth Walker has performed well down the stretch, but he hasn't played more than 62.5% of the snaps in a game this season and will shoulder a bigger workload with Zach Charbonnet done for the rest of the playoffs.
In a game that projects as a field-goal contest either way, I'll side with the team that has the better quarterback, especially when they're the one getting the three points.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+120)
Oshtry - Bet $50 to win $60
If you've caught just a few minutes of the Rams' offense at work, you've seen how often Matthew Stafford targets Nacua. The wideout led the NFL in receptions during the regular season, and he's now topping the league in postseason targets. Nacua has also scored five touchdowns in his last five games, including two the last time he played the Seahawks in mid-December. It's almost mandatory to take Nacua when he's at plus money.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+325)
Deeg - Bet $20 to win $65
Parkinson has been a touchdown machine for the Rams in recent weeks, finding the end zone nine times over his last 11 games, including the game-winning score in the wild-card round. Since Nov. 8, Parkinson leads the Rams in red-zone routes run (36), targets (16), receptions (12), receiving yards (95), and scores (six). Seattle's weakness on defense is covering tight ends, as it has allowed the fourth-most targets and fifth-most receptions to the position.
🏈 Bet: Over 30.5 passing attempts (-130)
Oshtry - Bet $85 to win $65
Darnold attempted 44 passes in the first meeting between these division rivals and 34 in the second outing. Both Bryce Young and Caleb Williams threw at least 40 times in the Rams' two playoff matchups. Los Angeles' passing defense also ranked around league average this season, which means opponents often felt confident leaning on their aerial attack against the Rams.
🏈 Bet: Over 23.5 receiving yards (-110)
Deeg - Bet $30 to win $27
This number stands out among all the Seahawks props. With Charbonnet sidelined, Walker steps into a larger role and has surpassed this mark in three of his last four games. He also exceeded it in both regular-season contests against the Rams, who allowed the fourth-most targets and fifth-most receiving yards to running backs in 2025.
🏈 Bet: Under 14.5 rushing attempts (-140)
Oshtry - Bet $70 to win $50
Williams has recorded fewer than 15 carries in eight of his last 11 contests. He may have earned 21 carries last week, but that's because the Bears have one of the league's worst run defenses. That's not the case with the Seahawks, who have allowed the NFL's third-fewest rushing yards per game. Williams struggled the last time these teams met, rushing for a season-low three yards per carry. L.A. will likely rely on Stafford to move the ball more than the ground game.
🏈 Bet: Over 7.5 rushing attempts (+105)
Patterson - Bet $100 to win $105
The Rams had abandoned the rushing attack for most of last week's outing, only to reignite it in the fourth quarter when Williams started to rack up touches and ultimately scored the go-ahead touchdown. Although L.A. phased Blake Corum out of the contest, he still managed six carries - only his second game with fewer than 11 in his last seven matchups. I expect McVay to revert to a more balanced attack, splitting the work between Williams and Corum. The latter, notably, ran it 14 times during the Rams' most recent trip to Seattle.
🏈 Bet: 3-leg parlay (+428)
- Corum over 6.5 carries
- Smith-Njigba over 89.5 receiving yards
- Nacua over 7.5 receptions
Patterson - Bet $25 to win $107.06
Let's try to build a parlay that doesn't need a miracle to hit. As laid out above, I like Corum's involvement, and this game also features two of the league's best wide receivers, both of whom will be key to their teams.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has reached at least 90 receiving yards in 13 of his 18 games this season, including in both meetings with the Rams. Nacua caught 12 passes against the Seahawks in Week 16 and has hauled in at least eight in nine of 17 contests.
Rams-Seahawks summary
| Patterson | Oshtry | Deeg |
|---|---|---|
| Corum o7.5 rush attempts | Nacua TD | Rams +3 |
| 3-leg parlay | Darnold o30.5 pass att. | Walker o23.5 rec. yards |
| Williams u14.5 rush att. | Parkinson TD |
Odds and lines derived from theScore Bet sportsbook and are subject to change. Real money was not used to make these wagers on theScore Bet.
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