MNF bets: Steelers to smother Dolphins in the cold
The Dolphins head north to play the Steelers on Monday night, when it's expected to be well below freezing in Pittsburgh.
Neither team is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. The Steelers lead the AFC North at 7-6 and are +100 to reach the postseason on theScore Bet. The Dolphins have a pulse ... barely. They are +10000 to make the playoffs, needing to win out and get a lot of help.
Let's get to our pick against the spread, touchdown scorers, and favorite player prop bets to close out Week 15.
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π Pick: Steelers -3.5
I don't expect this to be the most exciting game of the week. The total is only 41.5 points, and the weather should play right into the Steelers' hands. Aaron Rodgers is more than familiar with playing in the cold, as are many key pieces on the Steelers' defense.
The Dolphins aren't built for the cold, especially not quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. He's 1-7 lifetime in games where it was below 46 degrees Fahrenheit (7.7 degrees Celsius) and 0-5 in games below 40F (4.4C), according to the Palm Beach Post's Joe Schad. That doesn't bode well for Miami against a Pittsburgh team still fighting for its playoff life.
The Steelers have their flaws, but I'm willing to back them as favorites in tough conditions with something to play for against a Dolphins group that may already be thinking about heading back south at halftime.
NFL news editor Brenden Deeg is our "Anytime TD Guy," providing touchdown scorer props all season long.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+260)
Waller's four red-zone touchdowns lead all Miami pass-catchers this season, and he's fully healthy heading into Monday Night Football. Pittsburgh has struggled against tight ends this season, allowing the fifth-most scores to the position.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+400)
We're going with two big boys in this contest, as both teams' main weakness is covering tight ends. Miami has surrendered the seventh-most yards and sixth-most scores to the position. Washington has cleared concussion protocol, and he leads all Steelers tight ends in targets, receptions, and receiving yards since Nov. 15.
π Bet: Over 3.5 receptions
Gainwell is second on the Steelers in receptions with 50, and he's caught five or more in three of his past four games. Rodgers trusts Gainwell out of the backfield and should look his way often against the Dolphins, who give up the 12th-most receptions per game to running backs (4.54).
π Bet: Over 79.5 rushing yards
Achane is the Dolphins' only hope Monday. Assuming Tagovailoa struggles to throw the ball in the cold and wind, Achane's legs will be Miami's key to success. He's exceeded 80 rushing yards in four straight games and six of his last eight. The Steelers concede 125.3 rushing yards per game.
π Bet: Under 193.5 passing yards
Tagovailoa has failed to hit this total in four straight contests, and now he's going to be outdoors in the wind with a chance of snow. I don't like his chances of flipping the script on his poor record in cold conditions in a hostile Pittsburgh environment.
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