TNF bets: Can Lions cool off red-hot Cowboys?
The red-hot Cowboys visit Detroit to take on the Lions at Ford Field. Both teams are on the outside of the NFC playoff spots looking in, heightening the importance of a rare Thursday night contest where both teams have a full week of rest after playing on Thanksgiving.
Let's get to our pick against the spread, favorite touchdown scorers, and player props.
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π Pick: Lions -3
The Cowboys are winners of three straight, including victories over the Eagles and Chiefs. They're making a run for a wild-card spot, but so are the Lions, who will be just as hungry after losing to the Packers.
Both teams have equally rated offenses based on EPA/play. If Amon-Ra St. Brown misses this game, the Lions' offense takes a hit, but it still has plenty of playmakers who can step up. The biggest difference between these two teams is their defenses, and the Lions have been much better than the Cowboys in that department for most of the season.
Dallas' defense deserves some credit. It's improved since acquiring Quinnen Williams but still allowed 28 points to the Chiefs and 21 to the Eagles, who have really struggled to score points since the start of November.
I trust the Lions to get the job done at home. They're 11-0 straight up and 10-1 against the spread following a loss since the start of 2023, and they're the best team ATS at home since Dan Campbell took over as head coach in 2021 (27-16).
NFL news editor Brenden Deeg is our "Anytime TD Guy," providing touchdown scorer props all season long.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+110)
Williams at these odds provides the best value for a touchdown scorer in this game. With St. Brown likely out, the former first-round pick should see a heavy workload against a Dallas defense that's allowed the most scores to wideouts this season. Williams is playing the best football of his career, totaling five touchdowns in his last six games.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+125)
We're going straight chalk in a game that has brutal odds for long-shot value. CeeDee Lamb or George Pickens is a great bet in this game versus a Lions secondary that's surrendered the second-most touchdowns to wide receivers. We're rocking with Lamb in this contest, as his 11 red-zone targets since Oct. 25 are the second most among NFL pass-catchers.
π Bet: Over 34.5 passing attempts
If this game lives up to the point total's expectations, Prescott should be slinging the ball to keep pace. He's attempted 35 or more passes in three of his past four games, two of which were ultra-competitive matchups against the Chiefs and Eagles. This meeting with the Lions is on the same tier as those two, with big implications for the NFC playoff picture.
π Bet: Over 274.5 passing yards
If Prescott attempts 35 passes, he'll likely exceed this passing-yard total. Prescott has thrown for over 300 yards in back-to-back games and over 274.5 yards in four of six games where he's attempted at least 35 passes.
π Bet: Over 5.5 receptions
When will the betting market start respecting Pickens' production? The Cowboys wide receiver has caught six or more passes in five straight games and seven of his past nine, yet you can still get this prop at -115 odds. He'll be indoors against a Lions defense that's susceptible through the air in a game with a point total of 54.5.
π Bet: Over 117.5 rushing + receiving yards
With St. Brown's status uncertain, the Lions will have to rely heavily on their other playmakers. Gibbs should get a heavy workload both on the ground and through the air against a Cowboys defense that, while having improved over recent weeks, has struggled this season. Dallas gives up 394.2 yards per game, the third most in the league, and Gibbs has surpassed this total in four of his past six games.
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