NFL Week 17 picks: Bills-Eagles headlines holiday slate

I'm coming off a disappointing 7-9 week that opened with a loss after the Seahawks failed to cover the 1.5-point spread despite winning in overtime. I knew it would be an uphill battle from the start.

With two more weeks remaining in the regular season, it'll take a heroic effort to finish above .500 for the year, but we won't go down without a fight.

Here are our picks against the spread for Sunday's slate. Our picks for Sunday Night Football can be found in a separate article.

👉 Check out all of the Week 17 lines available on theScore Bet here

Jump to: Late slate

🏈 Pick: Seahawks (-6.5)

Both of these teams are coming off massive wins that gave them the top spot in their respective divisions. At first, I tried to argue that the Seahawks would be susceptible to a letdown game, but I quickly realized the Panthers may already be focused on next week's meeting with the Buccaneers - if they win, they punch their ticket to the playoffs.

This is a tough game to predict. However, the Seahawks are fighting for the top seed in the NFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Seattle also has the rest advantage, which should help mitigate the effects of cross-country travel, and is the superior team in all facets of the game, so winning by a touchdown shouldn't be the toughest challenge.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

🏈 Pick: Buccaneers (-5.5)

The Buccaneers don't have to win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive, but they won't want to rely on the Seahawks to beat the Panthers on the road, so it's likely a must-win in their eyes.

With so much at stake for Tampa Bay and so little at stake for the Dolphins, the Bucs become the obvious side to back. Miami just got blown out at home by the Bengals, a team that rates similarly to the Bucs, and still does not have an answer at quarterback. Whether it's Quinn Ewers again, Zach Wilson, or even Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins can't be trusted.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

🏈 Pick: Titans (+2.5)

Perhaps I'm completely wrong on the Saints and Tyler Shough is actually good, but I still can't trust them as road favorites. The Jets laid an egg last week, making the Saints look better than they are, and the Titans are a scrappy team at home with a 4-4 record against the spread (ATS).

I'll blindly take the home underdog between two below-average teams this late in the season.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Cardinals (+7.5)

I loved the Bengals last week as 4-point favorites on the road over an Ewers-led Dolphins team. That handicap proved to be correct, as the Bengals won by 24.

The Cardinals are flawed, but they're still 4-2 ATS as road underdogs. The Bengals are one of the worst teams in the league at defending tight ends, and the Cardinals have the best tight end in the league in Trey McBride. That mismatch alone should be enough to keep Arizona within a touchdown.

Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Jaguars (-5.5)

The Jaguars continued to roll with a huge win in Denver, keeping their chase for the top seed in the AFC alive. Meanwhile, the Colts (mainly their defense) were blown out by the 49ers at home Monday night.

Getting back on the horse on a short week is a tough ask for the Colts. Their season is essentially over, having dropped to +3500 to make the playoffs after last week's loss. The Phillip Rivers story was heartwarming, but despite some surprisingly good play, he's not the answer in Indianapolis. The Jaguars are a complete team and shouldn't have any trouble beating their division rival by a converted touchdown.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Steelers (-3.5)

If the Ravens lose to the Packers on Saturday night, this game becomes meaningless for the Steelers, since they'd have the division and the fourth seed in the AFC secured. If that's the case, Pittsburgh could elect to be cautious with its starters, which could move this spread.

For now, we'll operate under the assumption that this is an important game for Pittsburgh. The Steelers are impressing on both sides of the ball, highlighted by their win over the Lions last week in Detroit. On the other hand, the Browns may have given it their all last week, narrowly losing to the Bills by three points. I don't expect a repeat performance, even in a division game.

Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Patriots (-13.5)

After a 23-point loss on the road to the Saints, the Jets are officially cooked.

The Patriots are a much better team than the Jets in all areas and should blow past their divisional opponents. Brady Cook took eight sacks last week in New Orleans, proving once again that he is not an NFL-caliber quarterback. There is just no way to trust the Jets to cover any number at this point in the season.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

👉 Check out all of the Week 17 lines available on theScore Bet here

🏈 Pick: Raiders (+1.5)

The Giants head to Vegas for a battle for the first overall pick. Both teams hold a 2-13 record, sharing the last spot in the league.

This is simply a play on the home team in a matchup between two very bad squads. The spread is correct, but I'll take the Raiders and hope Maxx Crosby can make a difference.

Confidence level: ★☆☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Bills (-1.5)

I won't read too much into the Eagles' 11-point win over the Commanders last week. Washington was forced to turn to Josh Johnson, and the Commanders' defense can't stop anyone. The Eagles still don't look like a team that's going to make a run in the NFC playoffs, and they're outclassed in this matchup in Buffalo.

The Bills are starting to play their best football. They beat the Patriots two weeks ago on the road and picked up another victory against a tough defense in Cleveland. The AFC East crown is still up for grabs, while the Eagles have already secured the NFC East but are unlikely to make up enough ground to earn the conference's No. 1 seed. The Bills should be able to win this one comfortably.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

US: Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER; Hope is here. Call (800)-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org for 24/7 support (MA); Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).

ON: Please play responsibly. 19+. ON only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call ConnexOntario 24/7 at 1-866-531-2600. Text us at 247247 or chat with us at www.connexontario.ca.