TNF bets: Rams look to take advantage of beaten-up 49ers
Week 5 opens with a Thursday night tilt between the Rams and 49ers, two NFC West rivals. San Francisco limps into SoFi Stadium with a bunch of injuries on offense, most notably at the quarterback position. Los Angeles will look to take advantage of those absences on its home turf.
Let's dive in with our picks and props for Thursday Night Football.
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🏈 Pick: Rams (-8.5)
This line was Rams -6.5 on Wednesday, when this article is typically published, but player prop offerings were delayed because the 49ers are dealing with so many injuries. Now the line has moved two points in the Rams' favor. With that said, I still like the Rams to cover.
Brock Purdy will miss his third game of the season after re-aggravating a toe injury he played through during Week 4.
Mac Jones, Purdy's replacement, was questionable for last week's game against the Jaguars with a knee injury, which could've been why Purdy started despite not being completely healthy. It's unknown if Jones is 100% this week. That doesn't bode well going up against the Rams' tough defensive front seven.
Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings are also out, leaving Christian McCaffrey as the 49ers' only healthy option among their offensive core.
The Rams, meanwhile, are clicking on offense. Matthew Stafford is showing no signs of a bad back that kept him out of training camp, and Puka Nacua is the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year. The addition of Davante Adams has created the best wide receiver group in the NFL, and L.A. can run the ball effectively with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum as well.
There are too many injuries on the 49ers' side to feel comfortable backing them on a short week, though 8.5 points is a lot to cover in a divisional game. Still, I have far more confidence in both the Rams' offense and defense to show up in prime time.
🏈 Bet: Over 59.5 receiving yards
Who else is Jones going to throw to? McCaffrey is in line for a huge workload Thursday as the last man standing. The 49ers likely won't want to use McCaffrey as much as they'll have to, considering his own injury history, but they're running out of options.
McCaffrey has recorded at least 70 receiving yards in three of four games this season. He leads the team in receptions (31) and narrowly trails Pearsall for the most receiving yards - and that's come with more healthy players around.
🏈 Bet: Over 8.5 receptions
Nacua has hauled in nine or more passes in three of four games this year, and he caught eight in the only contest where he failed to hit that number. Nacua is on pace for a monstrous year, with records in receptions and receiving yards in his sights. It's safe to expect another high-usage game in an important early-season meeting with a divisional foe.
🏈 Bet: Over 9.5 receiving yards
Williams has caught at least two passes and exceeded 10 receiving yards in each of his last three games. He's a reliable check-down option and could easily clear this number with one screen pass.
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NFL news editor Brenden Deeg will provide touchdown scorer props all season long.
🙌 Bet: Williams rushing TD + Nacua receiving TD (+280)
With the 49ers severely banged up, we're going to combine two Rams for a nice parlay. The running back-and-wideout duo, which has totaled 121 touches through four games, is the focal point of Sean McVay's offense and should get plenty of looks in this matchup. Pairing a Williams TD on the ground with another from Nacua through the air is the best way to attack touchdown scorers here.
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