Conference championship props: QBs to elevate with Super Bowl trip at stake

The selection of player props is dwindling now that it's down to the final four teams. However, we managed to pick out four from each game to supplement our selections against the spread in the AFC and NFC.

Let's dive in.

Eagles vs. Commanders

Jayden Daniels - Over 224.5 passing yards (-110)

There are two scenarios in which Jayden Daniels surpasses his passing-yard total: either the Eagles lead most of the game and Washington is forced to play catch-up, or the Commanders get an early lead and the game turns into a shootout. Both game scripts are possible, and both involve Daniels throwing the ball a ton.

Running back Brian Robinson Jr. rushed well against the Lions, but he'd been rather ineffective in the handful of games prior. He ran for 16 yards against the Buccaneers and 24 yards in the Commanders' last meeting with the Eagles.

If you leave out Week 18, when Daniels didn't play the second half against the Cowboys, he's thrown for at least 225 yards in five straight games and six of his last seven. Washington needs to live and die with its rookie quarterback and should give him plenty of opportunities to make big plays.

Dyami Brown - Over 44.5 receiving yards (+100)

The betting market seems slow to react to Dyami Brown's role in the Commanders' offense. With Noah Brown sidelined, Dyami's stepped up as the No. 2 receiver and earned Daniels' trust. He's seen four or more targets in six straight games and gone over 89 yards in both playoff games.

Whatever the Commanders are doing on offense has been working, and Brown's played a big part in that success. There's no reason to believe Daniels will stop looking his way against the Eagles.

Terry McLaurin - Longest reception over 23.5 yards (-120)

Terry McLaurin had a massive game against the Lions and is playing the best football of his career. You could also target his receiving total of 59.5 yards, but 23.5 for his longest reception is the play.

He's gone over this number in 10 of his last 17 games, which includes a 58-yard reception last week and a 35-yarder against the Bucs. McLaurin's speed can turn a screen pass into a 25-yard gain, and he's elite at hauling in contested downfield catches.

Jalen Hurts - Over 24.5 passing attempts (+100)

Jalen Hurts hasn't been asked to throw the ball these playoffs; he's only got 41 attempts through two games. However, there's a good chance he'll have to air it out a bit more if the Commanders put up some points on Philadelphia's defense.

Although he recorded a full practice Thursday, the quarterback is dealing with a knee injury and may be less willing to scramble than usual. If you turn a few of his seven rush attempts from last week into passing attempts, combined with the Eagles calling more passing plays, Hurts should be able to clear 24.5 attempts with ease.

Chiefs vs. Bills

Xavier Worthy - Over 4.5 receptions (-165)

This prop is heavily juiced, and with good reason. Xavier Worthy has caught five or more balls for the Chiefs in six straight games, a decent sample size despite these odds suggesting only a 62.3% implied probability.

Four players caught a pass from Patrick Mahomes last week. Travis Kelce accounted for seven passes with Worthy next at five. Mahomes trusts his rookie wideout in a big way and should look his direction often in a crucial meeting with the Bills.

Travis Kelce - Over 6.5 receptions (-125)

Kelce added to his incredible playoff track record with a seven-catch, 117-yard showing last week against the Texans. He's averaging over eight receptions per game in the postseason and proved he still has plenty in the tank to help get the Chiefs to another Super Bowl.

We hit Worthy's and Kelce's overs last week, so why not go back to the well?

Patrick Mahomes - Under 24.5 rushing yards (-120)

This was another prop we targeted last week and hit. Mahomes rushed seven times for 14 yards against Houston, but two late kneel downs accounted for negative 9 yards rushing (the under would have hit regardless). You can't bank on Mahomes backtracking before taking a knee at the end of the game, but it's nice to know the option is there.

Still, Mahomes rushed for 25 or more yards just four times all season. His seven carries last week - five before the kneel downs - represented his highest mark of the year. He's simply not running enough to eclipse 25 rushing yards consistently.

Josh Allen - Over 9.5 rushing attempts (-105)

Josh Allen only attempted 10 or more rushes in four games this season, but the quality of the opponent appears to be a factor. In games against the Ravens, Lions, Rams, and Chiefs - four playoff teams - Allen averaged 10.75 carries. The Bills quarterback also attempted 11 or more rushes in his two most recent playoff meetings with the Chiefs.

Allen will be doing everything in his power to win Sunday. If he has the option of throwing it away to avoid a hit or potentially gaining 1 yard by lowering his shoulder, you'd better believe he's going to fight for that yard. Allen will want the ball in his hands in what's arguably the biggest game of his career.