Numbers show Ravens are the team to beat

Is this the year Lamar Jackson gets a ring?

I know what you're thinking: the Chiefs are inevitable. Betting against Patrick Mahomes and the two-time defending champs does feel legitimately foolish. And Baltimore would likely need a win in frigid Buffalo before even getting the opportunity to face Kansas City.

It's a true gauntlet of juggernaut Super Bowl contenders that nobody would want to face. But don't be surprised if neither the Chiefs or Bills are representing the AFC in New Orleans. The numbers show the Ravens are the true team to beat this year.

Baltimore's offense generated the majority of headlines this season, and rightly so. Outclassing today's high-powered attacks in the game is impressive enough.

(Advanced data via TruMedia)

But the statistical output - led by a quarterback in Lamar Jackson who's in the running for his third career MVP award - is rivaled only by some of the most prolific scoring units in NFL history.

Jackson took his game to another level this season, becoming the first QB to record 40-plus passing touchdowns with fewer than five interceptions. That incredible efficiency adds up to the fourth-best single-season passer rating of all time. Aaron Rodgers (2011, 2020) and Peyton Manning (2004) are the only players to exceed Lamar's 119.6 mark.

The difference? Jackson did it while maintaining his long-standing status as the league's premier running QB. He's the first QB to ever throw for over 4,000 yards and run for over 800 yards. Not bad for a guy who once faced absurd questions about whether he should actually play receiver at the NFL level.

Jackson's historic season, along with the home-run addition of Derrick Henry, put the entire Ravens offense in rarefied air. Baltimore's the first team to ever record 40 passing touchdowns and 20 rushing touchdowns in a single season, and the first to top 4,000 passing yards and 3,000 rushing yards in the same year.

The unit's 6.85 yards per play average is good for third in league history. Only the "Greatest Show on Turf" Rams in 2000, as well as another Rams team in 1954, were better in that regard. Baltimore's 5.76 yards per rush broke an NFL record set in 1963 by the Browns.

Also, in case anyone wants to cook up baseless narratives about favorable schedules, the Ravens finished this season with the fourth-best offensive rating in the history of DOVA (defense-adjusted value over average), which dates back to 1978. This offense is undeniably a wagon.

The defense wasn't exactly holding up its end of the bargain over the first 10 weeks of the season, ranking near the bottom of the league in most major statistical categories. It seemed for a while like the regression that followed the departure of defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald might wash out the magic we were seeing on the other side of the ball.

But it's been a completely different story in the second half. Knowing something had to change to solve their coverage mishaps, the Ravens shuffled the lineup by moving standout defender Kyle Hamilton from the slot to a deep safety role. In doing so, Hamilton's effectively become the secondary's QB, and communication lapses are no more with him directing traffic.

"His smarts, how he keeps the guys calm, he's just a piece you could put at any position," cornerback Marlon Humphrey told reporters in December. "But (Hamilton) going back to safety has seemed to really stabilize everybody else in all their spots."

Baltimore's defensive numbers before and after the change tell the story:

The Ravens' defense has been football's best for the better part of the last two months. That kind of dominance in complementing a historically great offense is what Super Bowl dreams are made of. Pro teams rarely achieve this kind of elite balance, if ever.

Further, the second-half growth hasn't been limited to the defense, either. Baltimore led the league in penalties per game over the first 12 weeks of the season and are middle of the pack in the six weeks since, ranking behind the Lions and Vikings at 16th.

And while some bizarre kicking struggles also threatened to derail Baltimore's championship aspirations, Justin Tucker's looked a lot more like his automatic self in four games since the team's bye week. The future Hall of Famer didn't miss a kick as the Ravens outscored opponents 135-43 in their perfect regular-season finish.

A 31-2 drubbing of AFC South champion Houston on Christmas sent the message loud and clear: Baltimore's ready to roll.

Anything can happen in the playoffs. Would-be powerhouses have disappointed before and will undoubtedly do so again. But none of that takes away from the reality that this Ravens team, no matter what the AFC standings tell you, is better positioned than any other to dethrone the back-to-back champs and chase down another Super Bowl of its own.

The Ravens are football's best team this season. Can they keep it going for four more games?