MNF betting preview: Will Lions rest starters vs. 49ers?

The Lions (13-2) are in San Francisco for a date with the 49ers (6-9) - a matchup that had a ton of appeal at the start of the season. However, the 49ers' disastrous campaign combined with the Lions playing a meaningless game has taken away the excitement.

Case for the Lions

• Despite its injuries on defense, many consider Detroit the best team in the league. It has the second-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl at +450 on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet.
• The Lions may rest their starters because this game is irrelevant in the standings (their Week 18 clash with the Vikings will determine who gets the No. 1 seed in the NFC). However, head coach Dan Campbell made it clear that his team will do everything it can to win.

Case for the 49ers

• The 49ers have underachieved all season, but they're still a strong squad with pride to play for. They rank 11th in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), and getting 3.5 points at home is a lot for a quality team.

Key trends

• The Lions are 10-5 against the spread (ATS) and 6-1 ATS on the road.
• The 49ers are 5-10 ATS, a sign they've drastically underachieved. However, they've been a respectable 4-4 ATS at home.
• Detroit is 7-0 straight up on the road.
• The over has hit in three straight Lions games due to their elite offense and depleted defense. They're scoring an average of 36.7 points and giving up 32 over that three-game span.

Pick: 49ers +3.5

It's dangerous to pick against the Lions, but there's too much value on the 49ers at home to pass up. San Francisco's offense is capable of scoring at the same rate as the Lions and has a better defense at this point in the season. It's easier to trust the 49ers' defense to slow down Jared Goff than it is to bank on the Lions' porous defense to limit Brock Purdy.

Players to watch

Jahmyr Gibbs - Over 124.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)

We'll believe Campbell and his intention to do everything he can to win this game.

The Lions gave Gibbs the ball 27 times in his first appearance without David Montgomery. With those 27 touches, he collected 45 receiving yards and rushed for 109. If Gibbs sees another 25 opportunities or more, he should be able to surpass 125 total yards.

Jared Goff - Over 32.5 passing attempts

Goff has thrown 33 or more times in four of his past five outings and attempted 32 passes in the contest he came up short. The Lions are dealing with a ton of key injuries on defense, forcing them to play fast and score points to keep up. This matchup has a total of 50.5 points - and there's a good chance Goff will throw the ball at least 33 times if it finishes close to that total.

Deebo Samuel - Over 49.5 receiving yards

Samuel's had a down season by his standards, but he has a lot to prove as the offseason nears. The 28-year-old is a potential cut candidate and needs to show the league his legs still have juice.

He put up 96 receiving yards on seven catches last week and has seen 16 targets over his past two outings. If Samuel puts forth a similar effort to last week's and continues to get looks from Purdy, hitting 50 receiving yards shouldn't be an issue.