MNF betting preview: Harbaugh brothers face off in L.A.

Jim and John Harbaugh last coached against each other in Super Bowl XLVII, when John's Ravens got the better of his brother's 49ers.

The younger Jim is back on an NFL sideline after a nine-year stint as Michigan's head coach, leading a rejuvenated Chargers franchise to a surprising 7-3 record.

Jim welcomes his brother's 7-4 Ravens to the West Coast for a prime-time showdown in which Lamar Jackson can strengthen his MVP case under L.A.'s bright lights. The Ravens need a victory to keep pace with the AFC North-leading Steelers, who helped Baltimore by losing to Cleveland in the snow Thursday.

It's unlikely the Chargers can catch the Chiefs for the AFC West title, so their focus will be on clinching the top wild-card spot in the loaded AFC.

Key trends

• The Chargers are 7-3 against the spread (ATS) this season, tied for the fifth-best cover rate in the league. They're also 4-1 ATS at home.
• The Ravens are only 5-5-1 ATS and 3-5 ATS against AFC opponents.
• Jackson is a career 19-5 in prime-time games, the best record of any quarterback since 1970 (minimum 15 starts).
• The over has hit in 81.8% of Ravens games but only 30% of Chargers games.

Insights

This line opened with the Ravens as 2.5-point favorites and shifted slightly in their favor despite the Chargers receiving more bets and a larger chunk of the handle. This type of line movement can indicate that sharp action has come in on Baltimore, but the public money is backing L.A.

Best bet - Chargers +3

Mike Tomlin's defense provided the NFL with a blueprint on how to slow down the Ravens' offense last week, limiting Baltimore to a season-low 16 points. The thing is, not many defenses in the league have the players or coaching required to replicate the Steelers' success ... but the Chargers do.

Jim Harbaugh's defense allows the fewest points per game in the league (14.5), which includes the Bengals' 27 from Sunday night, and the fewest touchdowns per game (1.5). Jackson will have his hands full for the second week in a row. The Chargers also have the fifth-best turnover margin in the NFL.

Additionally, Justin Herbert is cooking. Harbaugh has taken the reins off his quarterback as the season has progressed, allowing him to attempt 31 passes a game over their last six contests compared to only 22.75 times from Weeks 1-4. The Ravens' defense is susceptible through the air, giving up a league-high 284.5 passing yards per game.

Players to watch

Ladd McConkey - Over 5.5 receptions (+100)

The Chargers' rookie wideout has seen six-plus targets in eight of 10 games this season and has a 77% catch rate over his past five contests. McConkey has emerged as Herbert's favorite target as the Chargers have opted to throw the ball at a much higher rate than they did early in the season. The Ravens have allowed massive games to No. 1 options, giving up an average of 8.2 catches and 134.8 yards to opponents' leading receiver over the past five games.

J.K. Dobbins - Over 39.5 rushing yards + anytime TD scorer (+110)

It's a revenge game for Dobbins, who signed with the Chargers in the offseason after injuries plagued his four-year tenure in Baltimore. The Ravens aren't the easiest team to run on, but you know player's coach Jim Harbaugh will want to give Dobbins every opportunity he can to score on his former team.

Zay Flowers - Over 49.5 receiving yards + over 4.5 receptions (-115)

Flowers was held in check the last two weeks but received six targets in each of those contests. He should be able to operate with little resistance in short-yardage areas against a Chargers defense that's conceded big games to opposing wideouts. Even if he doesn't pile up yardage after the catch, Flowers should be able to surpass 50 yards if the target volume remains high.