Chiefs vs. Ravens betting primer: Odds, props, and insights for NFL opener
Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet
The wait for meaningful NFL football ends Thursday as the season kicks off with a rematch of last season's AFC Championship Game between the Chiefs and the Ravens.
Kansas City is on a quest to become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls. It narrowly beat Baltimore 17-10 in January to advance to last season's Big Game. Seven months later, the two squads with championship aspirations open the 2024 NFL season.
Ravens @ Chiefs odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | +3 | O 46.5 | +130 |
| Chiefs | -3 | U 46.5 | -155 |
The Super Bowl favorite Chiefs are favored by a field goal at home, meaning the market thinks Kansas City would be a slight favorite on a neutral field (home-field advantage is worth approximately two points). Notably, John Harbaugh is 12-4 against the spread in Week 1, the best opening game mark among active coaches.
This is also a showdown between two of the league's best quarterbacks and the most recent MVPs. Lamar Jackson won the award last season, while Patrick Mahomes won it the season prior and is the favorite to win it again this season.
Despite an epic playoff run culminating in a Super Bowl, the Chiefs are coming off their worst regular season of the Mahomes era. The offense struggled with unreliable weapons surrounding the star QB.
The Ravens, on the other hand, are coming off their best regular season since 2006. Both squads returned most of their key players.
The Ravens, who have the third-best odds to win the Super Bowl, stifled the Chiefs' rushing attack in the AFC title game. Kansas City didn't score a point in the second half but held on because of Baltimore's passing game woes.
Thursday's opener should be different with the total set at 46.5. The prime-time matchup has received the second-most over bets of the entire NFL weekend slate.
Key player props
Quarterbacks
| Player | Passing yards | Passing TDs | Rushing yards |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 266.5 | Over 1.5 (-180) | 20.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | 218.5 | Over 1.5 (+135) | 47.5 |
Mahomes eclipsed 267 yards passing in half of his regular-season starts last season but only three times in the final nine games. He took off for at least 20 rushing yards in 11 out of 16 games. In their playoff meeting, the Ravens' defense limited Mahomes to 241 passing yards, one touchdown, and 15 rushing yards.
Jackson threw for at least 219 yards in nine out of 16 games last season. Against the Chiefs, Jackson threw for 272 yards and rushed for 54 yards despite his team generating only 10 points.
Running backs
| Player | Rushing yards | Rushing attempts |
|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 64.5 | 15.5 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 60.5 | 14.5 |
Derrick Henry signed with the Ravens this offseason after eight seasons with the Titans. Although he's not the dynamic runner he was in his prime, Henry rushed for over 1,000 yards a season ago, breaking 65 rushing yards in over half of his games. Henry's rushing yards prop is the most-bet player prop for Thursday's opener.
Isiah Pacheco earned a larger workload on a pass-heavy team in the back half of last season. He received at least 15 rushing attempts in eight of the final 11 games and ran for 68 yards on 24 attempts against Baltimore in the postseason.
Wide receivers
| Player | Receptions | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 5.5 | 57.5 |
| Rashee Rice | 5.5 | 60.5 |
| Zay Flowers | 4.5 | 52.5 |
| Mark Andrews | 4.5 | 48.5 |
| Xavier Worthy | 3.5 | 46.5 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2.5 | 30.5 |
Travis Kelce had at least six catches and 58 receiving yards in nine out of 15 games in 2023. The 34-year-old tight end remains Mahomes' most trusted weapon.
Rashee Rice made an immediate impact in his rookie season, soaring past 61 yards in five of his final six regular-season games. He led all Kansas City wide receivers in yards and receptions. The Chiefs invested in another young wideout when they drafted Xavier Worthy in the first round, and the rookie should be an instant target in a thin wide receiver room. Oddsmakers expect a quality debut from the Texas product.
Anytime TD scorer odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | -120 |
| Isiah Pacheco | -105 |
| Travis Kelce | +105 |
| Rashee Rice | +165 |
| Xavier Worthy | +180 |
| Mark Andrews | +155 |
| Zay Flowers | +175 |
| Lamar Jackson | +235 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +350 |
Henry is the most-bet player to score a touchdown, with 40% of total bets on the market placed on him. Kelce, Mahomes' top red-zone target who caught an uncharacteristically low five touchdowns last campaign, has the second-most action on him. Jackson has received the fourth-most bets after running for only five touchdowns in 2023.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.