NFL upset of the week: Trust Russ vs. Rams
Week 14 will live in infamy for producing a rare Sunday where just one underdog (Falcons +2.5) won, showing that sometimes there just isn't a viable decent-sized upset.
Lines get sharper as the NFL season wears on, and teams that were frisky at the start have lost much of their fight. That's why the first three months are when we can profit on underdog plays.
But we understand the assignment, as the kids say, so we'll look for a team with late-season momentum to steal an underdog win of better than +150 on the moneyline.
The spot
With four games left, don't tell Russell Wilson that the Seattle Seahawks are out of it. Washington Football Team's possession of the final playoff spot is anything but absolute. Whether the Seahawks actually make the playoffs (at +1000) is irrelevant - consecutive wins over the 49ers and Texans means they'll play with belief.
The Rams' positive COVID-19 tests early in the week and uncertainty over the remainder of the squad means this game could draw down closer to PK. L.A. is also on a short week coming off an emotional revenge win over the Cardinals.
Seahawks' offense vs. Rams' defense
In their first matchup this season, Wilson broke his hand. While Geno Smith came in and threw a touchdown pass to keep the Seahawks alive, who knows what would have happened if Wilson had gone to work in the fourth quarter?
He let everyone know then - and throughout the next month - that he was going to come back early. He did. It went badly. Now, more than eight weeks later, he looks like he's back to his former self.
The Rams' strength on defense has been stopping the run, but the Seahawks' irritating desire to run the ball when Wilson is clearly their best scoring option makes it difficult to predict a game plan.
Even though it was against a checked-out Texans team, Rashaad Penny blew up for 137 yards last week, so things may be starting to click for him. If Wilson and Tyler Lockett seem to continue to share a brain and DK Metcalf draws attention, I give the Seahawks a chance to beat anyone in the division.
Rams' offense vs. Seahawks' defense
Jamal Adams' season-ending injury might actually help the Seahawks. While widely regarded as the league's best box safety, Seattle used him more in coverage this season, which is not his strength. The Seahawks' run defense may suffer without him, but does that matter against their final four opponents - the Rams, Bears, Lions, and Cardinals? It probably won't against a pass-first team like the Rams, especially if they're missing Odell Beckham Jr.
One reason Adams played outside the box more this season is likely because the Seahawks don't need help in stopping the run. At 3.8 opponent yards per rush, their run defense is second in the league.
It's entirely possible that Cooper Kupp runs amok in Seattle's secondary, but there's only so much damage he can do, especially if Jalen Ramsey isn't available and the Seahawks' outside weapons can match that production.
With the Rams feeling good after a big win and the Seahawks still hungry, I'll put a little faith in Wilson. He's found form late in the season and can keep the 12s' hopes alive for another week at a decent price (one that could drop with more bad news).
Pick: Seahawks moneyline (+180)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.