TCU's Dykes predicts split among P4, G5 schools
TCU head coach Sonny Dykes thinks that a structural change involving the two classes of FBS football is a matter of when, not if.
"There's got to be a split eventually (between the power conferences and Group of 5)," Dykes recently told Mike Craven of Dave Campbell's Texas Football. "There is such a big difference right now between the haves and the have-nots, and I think we'll eventually split into two separate divisions. Alabama and (Louisiana) Tech aren't playing the same sport."
College football's latest major realignment left the sport with four power conferences in 2024: the SEC, Big Ten, ACC, and Big 12. It began when Oklahoma and Texas chose to leave the Big 12 for the SEC. They were followed by USC's and UCLA's decision to go to the Big Ten, starting a mass exodus in the Pac-12.
Dykes coached Louisiana Tech from 2010-12 and posted a 22-15 record with the Bulldogs before being hired by Cal. The 54-year-old coached the Golden Bears for four seasons (2013-16) and then had a stint with SMU (2017-21) before joining TCU. He helped the Horned Frogs reach the national title game in 2022.
Dykes believes that coaching a Group of 5 school is harder in the NIL era.
"These jobs are even harder now because if one of your players has a great season, he's probably getting plucked away," he added. "Your only chance is to build a great culture and hope that keeps most of your roster intact."
Group of 5 leaders have had preliminary discussions about a potential G5-only postseason playoff or even wide-scale realignment, according to The Athletic's Chris Vannini.
ESPN recently signed an exclusive deal with the College Football Playoff to become the sole media rights holder through 2031-32. The contract - which accounts for the CFP expansion from four to 12 teams - is for six years and $1.3 billion. Although the playoffs' new format will generate more revenue, the payouts to the Group of 5 will be relatively unchanged, notes Vannini.
Former Tennessee coach Derek Dooley has pitched a Group of 5 playoff that would be financially backed by private equity, per CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd.
"At some point, G5 has to step back and let the powers at be with money do their own thing," North Texas head coach Eric Morris said, according to Craven. "At that point, the question becomes: how do we stay relevant to our fans and to a broader audience?"
SMU sideline boss Rhett Lashlee, whose Mustangs will be leaving a Group of 5 conference this year to join the ACC, thinks G5 schools will be fine if they split with the Power 4.
"Would you rather get beat 48-7 to Georgia in the first round or play for a championship?" Lashlee said. "Some say it makes it FCS football, but FCS football thrives for what it is. What saves G5 football is competition."
Lashlee added: "I think fans would've loved it if Liberty, SMU, Troy and Boise State were in a four-team playoff last year. Kids will still transfer up or down by at least each school is competing for something."