March Madness betting: Chalk prevails, Michigan becomes favorite
Any questions regarding Cinderella's vitality have been answered after most favorites prevailed during the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament. The Sweet 16 features only high-major programs for the second straight season - and these are the only two years that's happened in March Madness history.
Favorites went a perfect 16-0 straight up during Friday's Round of 64 slate and 39-9 overall across the first two rounds. While the unpredictability and underdog runs of March Madness might be behind us, the opening rounds still involved plenty of chaos. From Kentucky's remarkable first-round win to Vanderbilt's near-half-court heave to St. John's buzzer-beater to Florida's early exit, the tournament hasn't been short on excitement.
The games are better when the best teams advance to the later stages of the tournament, creating thrilling second-weekend matchups. In this case, they've also shifted the national title odds.
National title odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Michigan | +300 |
| Arizona | +325 |
| Duke | +370 |
| Houston | +675 |
| Illinois | +1400 |
| Purdue | +1400 |
| Iowa State | +1600 |
| UConn | +2500 |
| St. John's | +2500 |
| Michigan State | +2800 |
| Arkansas | +4000 |
| Nebraska | +5000 |
| Tennessee | +5000 |
| Alabama | +7500 |
| Iowa | +10000 |
| Texas | +20000 |
Michigan entered the tournament with the second-best odds but became the favorite over the weekend after dominant wins against Howard and Saint Louis. Duke's odds went in the opposite direction. The Blue Devils went from favorites to owning the third-best odds after becoming the first 1-seed to trail a 16-seed by double digits at halftime and only leading TCU by four at the break in the Round of 32.
Duke also faces the most difficult path remaining among 1-seeds with a Sweet 16 showdown against St. John's (Duke is favored by 6.5) and a potential Elite Eight matchup against either UConn or Michigan State.
Arizona leaped over Duke on the oddsboard and now has the second-best odds following double-digit wins over LIU and Utah State. Michigan is a 9.5-point favorite over Alabama in the Sweet 16, while Arizona is an 8.5-point favorite over Arkansas.
Florida, which entered the tournament with the fourth-best odds, became the first 1-seed to lose. Iowa upset the Gators, who'd received the fourth-most national title bets on theScore Bet entering the tournament. They're the only team with top-10 pre-tournament odds that lost during opening weekend. Florida's loss significantly shrunk Houston's odds from +1200 before the tournament to +675, as the Cougars were in the same region as the Gators.
Oddsmakers see a huge gap between Michigan, Arizona, Duke, and Houston and the rest of the field in terms of championship chances. Illinois, Purdue, and Iowa State are the next tier of likely champions.
As for the long shots, Texas and Iowa are the two biggest surprises. Texas, which played in the First Four, has halved its odds from +40000 before the madness to +20000. Iowa's odds shortened from +25000 to +10000.
Although we won't get a Final Four featuring only 1-seeds for a second straight year, chalk has still conquered the tournament. One of the current favorites should cut down the nets in April, but there will be plenty of movement before that happens.
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