March Madness Round of 32: Best bets, survivor picks for Saturday
By the end of Friday night, we'll have gotten through all 32 games in the Round of 64. Then it'll be time to take a shower, grab a bite, check in with your family, and get back to the couch for the Round of 32 this weekend. Let's get to our picks, underdogs, and survivor plays for Saturday.
🏀 No. 3 Michigan State (-3.5) over No. 6 Louisville
Louisville escaped South Florida in the opener, but Michigan State is a different beast. The Spartans' top-15 defense will prevent Louisville from getting hot from deep. The Cardinals attempt the nation's fourth-most threes. I can't trust a team that relies so heavily on 3-pointers and rarely scores at the rim, especially against a physically imposing defense. Not to mention Mikel Brown Jr., Louisville's best player, sat in the opener and hasn't played since the end of February. Meanwhile, Michigan State has won six of its last eight games. Jeremy Fears Jr. has a case as the best floor general in the sport. He won't let the Spartans slip up in the Round of 32. - Sam Oshtry
🏀 No. 9 Saint Louis (+12.5) over No. 1 Michigan
Michigan's size might be too much for Saint Louis to overcome, but this spread is too high for a Saint Louis offense that can keep pace with any team in the country. The Wolverines struggled against 16-seed Howard, their Round of 64 opponent, leading by just four points at halftime before pulling away in the second half.
That continues a troubling trend for Michigan, which has looked beatable over the last few weeks and lost some depth when L.J. Cason suffered a season-ending injury. Michigan star Yaxel Lendeborg is dealing with a lingering injury and only attempted five shots in the tournament opener. Meanwhile, Saint Louis decimated Georgia by 25 in the opening round. - Oshtry
🏀 No. 5 Vanderbilt (-1.5) over No. 4 Nebraska
This is a nice buy-low spot for the Commodores after McNeese State gave them a scare in the first round. Vanderbilt ended the season by making a run to the SEC Tournament final and boasts one of the best guards in the country in Tyler Tanner. The sophomore star ranked fifth in the country in steals this season and should give the Cornhuskers fits on the perimeter.
Nebraska is a much better matchup for Vanderbilt than the physical Cowboys, and the Cornhuskers are coming off the emotional high of the program's first-ever March Madness victory. It's unlikely the Huskers will repeat Thursday's shooting performance against a Vanderbilt team that's 31st in KenPom's defensive rating, and the Commodores are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games. Give me Vanderbilt to book a ticket to the Sweet 16 and cover this small spread. - Brenden Deeg
🏀 No. 11 Texas (+6.5) over No. 3 Gonzaga
I'll jump on the Texas bandwagon for the second round. The Longhorns are coming off an impressive win over AJ Dybantsa and BYU, and I love them to keep it rolling in this matchup.
Gonzaga ranks 298th in 3-point attempts per game, and Texas' defensive weakness is getting lit up from deep, so the Bulldogs aren't exactly poised to take advantage. The Longhorns' 7-foot center, Matas Vokietaitis, is coming off a 26-point, 16-rebound performance, and he could cause problems for a Zags defense that can't match his size. Gonzaga didn't look good in the opening round and will once again likely be without its best player, Braden Huff. The Longhorns should be able to keep this one close or pull off the upset. - Deeg
🏀 No. 9 TCU (+500) over No. 1 Duke
Duke became the first 1-seed to trail a 16-seed by double digits at halftime. While that was concerning, it might have just been early tournament nerves for a team that relies on a few freshmen. Picking TCU to upset Duke has less to do with the Blue Devils choking and more to do with TCU being wildly underrated. The Horned Frogs' balanced scoring attack, led by playmaking big David Punch, complements their physical, tenacious defense. They attack the offensive glass, rarely turn it over, and get to the free-throw line: a winning formula to control the possession battle and pull off an upset.
Siena laid the blueprint for limiting Duke and freshman Cameron Boozer - despite scoring 22 points, he looked uncomfortable and was inefficient. Siena's ball pressure and physicality bothered Duke, and TCU is equipped to replicate it. Two of Duke's top four leading scorers - Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba - missed the tourney opener and are likely out again. The Blue Devils' depth might not be strong enough to overcome an intimidating TCU group. - Oshtry
Oshtry - Michigan State
We made it past the opening round. Now, let's get to the Sweet 16 safely. For all the reasons previously laid out, Michigan State should easily defeat Louisville. But why use a Spartans team that I'm so high on in the Round of 32? Because they're in a difficult region, and I wouldn't touch them the rest of the way. They'll likely play UConn in the Sweet 16 and then Duke, Kansas, or St. John's in the Elite Eight. Michigan State will be an underdog in most of those scenarios, so let's use it now.
Deeg - Illinois
This is a great spot to pick a 3-seed before using some of the top teams in the tournament. Illinois rolled in its first game against Penn and boasts one of the most lethal offenses in the country. The Fighting Illini rank first in KenPom's offensive rating metric, and VCU doesn't have the defensive talent to match up. While the Rams are a solid squad, the Fighting Illini are double-digit favorites and should take care of business Saturday night.
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