March Madness Round 1: Best bets, survivor picks for Friday's slate

Hopefully, Thursday didn't completely bust your bracket and you won some wagers. Like every day for the rest of the tournament, Sam Oshtry and Brenden Deeg are back with our picks, favorite underdog moneyline plays, and survivor winners.

👉 Bet on March Madness on theScore Bet here

No. 10 Santa Clara (+3.5) over No. 7 Kentucky

Kentucky is 4-6 in its last 10 games and on upset watch in the Round of 64. While this is Santa Clara's first tournament appearance since 1996, the Broncos have the pieces for a deep run. They've found success against power conference opponents, including wins over Xavier and Minnesota and a close loss to Arizona State. While those teams aren't as talented as Kentucky, Santa Clara's No. 34 KenPom ranking indicates it can compete with high-major teams. - Oshtry

No. 11 Miami (OH) (+11.5) over No. 6 Tennessee

March is where magic happens. Despite all the chatter surrounding Miami of Ohio's ridiculously easy schedule, defeating SMU in the First Four proved the RedHawks belong in the field. This feels like a group with the makings of a Cinderella following an undefeated regular season. Regardless of whether they can pull off the upset, Tennessee doesn't deserve to be a double-digit favorite. The Vols are limping into the tournament after dropping four of their last six games. Nate Ament and Ja'Kobi Gillespie, Tennessee's two best players, have been too inconsistent to trust to cover a big spread over a hot team. - Oshtry

Hofstra team total over 73.5

Hofstra averages 75.6 points per game and shoots nearly 37% from three. Alabama allows 83.5 points per game as the 14th-worst scoring defense out of 365 eligible programs. This will be a fast-paced, high-scoring affair featuring a plethora of shot attempts, but Alabama couldn't stop a high school team. Although Hofstra played three high-major programs this season and averaged 76 points in those matchups, none of those teams were as weak defensively as the Crimson Tide. - Oshtry

No. 7 UCLA (-5.5) over No. 10 UCF

Despite encountering a few bumps in the road this season, Mick Cronin's team enters the tournament red-hot. The Bruins reeled off wins over Michigan State, Illinois, and Nebraska over the last month and made a run to the Big Ten Tournament semifinals.

Bruins guard Donovan Dent, one of the best floor generals in the country, has been playing out of his mind. He'll face a UCF squad that ranks 294th in steals and 264th in defensive rating - meaning the Knights are one of the worst defenses the Bruins have seen all season. After a 17-4 start to the year, UCF has lost seven of its last 11 contests and is trending in the wrong direction. I expect the Bruins to take care of business Friday night. - Deeg

No. 15 Furman (+20.5) over No. 2 UConn

UConn started the season 18-1 with its only loss coming to Arizona, but the Huskies have looked like a completely different team down the stretch. They've dropped three of their last eight games, including a bad home loss to Creighton and a blowout defeat to St. John's in the Big East final. Dan Hurley's squad has gone ice-cold from the 3-point line, shooting 32% or worse in five of its last seven contests.

Furman dealt with a ton of injuries earlier in the season and ended up the No. 6 seed in the Southern Conference as a result, but the team is healthy at the right time. The Paladins have the size to deal with UConn, boasting two 6-foot-11 forwards in Cooper Bowser and Charles Johnston. They're also a top-60 rebounding team in the country and have star power in freshman guard Alex Wilkins, who averages 17-plus points per game and deserves more national recognition. - Deeg

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No. 12 Akron (+250) over No. 5 Texas Tech

Akron is the smallest team in the field by average height, but Texas Tech doesn't have the size to bully Akron in the paint. Without JT Toppin, one of the nation's best players, Texas Tech's frontcourt has been a non-factor. Since Toppin went down, the Red Raiders are 3-3. Akron is one of the country's best 3-point shooting teams and plays an up-tempo style that Texas Tech's defense can't contain. It feels like a classic 12-over-5 upset is brewing. - Oshtry

No. 13 Hofstra (+500) over No. 4 Alabama

Hofstra plays the exact style of basketball you want when homing in on a potential double-digit seed winning its first game. The Pride rank 35th in rebounding and 3-point percentage, and they've got star power in Cruz Davis, who averages over 20 points per game. They also play at a snail's pace, ranking 330th in tempo. Slowing the game down and limiting possessions is crucial to beating a fast-paced Alabama team.

The Crimson Tide don't defend well - they're 267th in defensive rating - and don't force many turnovers. There's also a dark cloud over the program after Aden Holloway's suspension. Hofstra is a nightmare first-round matchup for Alabama regardless, and the Pride will give Nate Oats' team fits Friday afternoon. - Deeg

👉 Bet on March Madness on theScore Bet here

Oshtry - St. John's

I'm going to pick St. John's based on similar reasoning to my Day 1 Arkansas pick. I can't envision a scenario where the Red Storm lose to a bad Northern Iowa squad averaging the fewest points per game among all 68 tournament teams. The Red Storm are significantly more talented and athletic than the Panthers, and they're too well-coached to be upset in this spot. But as was the case with Arkansas on Thursday, I don't feel comfortable taking St. John's any later - the team would likely play Kansas in the Round of 32 and then Duke in the Sweet 16 (if both teams advance). So we might as well burn the Johnnies now.

Deeg - Purdue

With Oshtry picking St. John's, I'll take a 2-seed Friday and choose the Boilermakers. Purdue is a 25.5-point favorite over a Queens University team that can score but ranks 345th in defensive rating and 260th in steals. Coming off an incredible run in the Big Ten Tournament, the Boilermakers are one of the hottest teams in the country. They should get a comfortable win over the Royals and roll to the Round of 32.

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