Road to Madness: Latest analysis heading into NCAA tourney

We are officially in the final weeks of action before the NCAA Tournament brackets drop on Selection Sunday. Follow along for weekly analysis of all major happenings to help your bracket research as the Madness approaches.

Jump to:
Miami (OH) goes 31-0 | USF | New Mexico's blown chance | SMU | Auburn | North Carolina, Cincinnati | Georgia, TCU | Miami (OH) vs. Pearl | NC State | Arizona locks it up | New Mexico | Duke Statement | Michigan Final Four | Miami (OH) stays perfect | Michigan State | UConn statement

Friday, March 6

Put Miami (OH) in the tourney

Miami (OH) capped off a perfect 31-0 regular season with yet another dramatic win. The RedHawks got a pair of clutch free throws from Peter Suder and made one last defensive stop at the buzzer to outlast Ohio in overtime. It was the program's first road win over the Bobcats since 2011 and their eight victory this season in a one-possession game.

Say what you want about Miami (OH)'s weak schedule, but Travis Steele's squad continues to find ways to get the job done. The RedHawks are the sixth team in the last 35 years to finish the regular season undefeated, according to CBS Sports' Jon Rothstein. They're also the first team since 1978-79 to enter its conference tournament without a loss after being unranked in the preseason AP Poll, according to ESPN Research.

Miami (OH) deserves to be in the Big Dance, even if they fall short in the MAC Tournament. It's rare to complete a perfect campaign in any conference. Winning should be celebrated instead of scrutinized. It would be a shame if the committee decides to exclude the best story of the season from the NCAA Tournament.

Thursday, March 5

South Florida making late charge

Can South Florida actually snag a spot in the NCAA Tournament? The Bulls' best route to the Big Dance is still through the American Tournament via the automatic bid for the winning team. But the school's recent form is also putting them in the conversation for an at-large bid should they come up short in their conference tournament, according to ESPN's Joe Lunardi.

USF has won 11 of its past 12 games, with its last defeat being a one-point loss to Temple on Jan. 31. The Bulls' average margin of victory during that span is 13.9 points. A triumph on the road Thursday against Memphis gave the Bulls their fifth Quad 2 win of the season to go along with a pair of Quad 1 victories.

USF leads the NCAA in free-throw attempts per game (27.9), ranks third in rebounds (42.9), and boasts the nation's 10th-highest scoring offense. The Bulls have an inside-out attack led by double-double machine Izaiyah Nelson and sharpshooters Wes Enis and Joseph Pinion. Nobody wants to face a double-digit seed with that much firepower.

Wednesday, March 4

New Mexico wastes opportunity

New Mexico could've put themselves in a great spot with a win Wednesday over Colorado State. Instead, they fell flat at home against the Rams, trailing by as many as 19 points in a wire-to-wire defeat. The Lobos are now outside of the NCAA Tournament field heading into their final regular-season matchup against Utah State, according to ESPN's Joe Lunardi.

New Mexico could right the ship in a big way with a Quad 1 victory Saturday over the Mountain West Conference leaders. But their latest meeting a month ago was ugly for the Lobos, as they were blown out by 20 points on their home floor. Eric Olen's squad also has a Quad 3 loss to New Mexico State on their resume, which is looming large following Wednesday's missed opportunity.

SMU flirting with disaster

SMU looked primed to end its nine-year NCAA Tournament drought when it topped Boston College to pick up its 19th win of the season. Nearly two weeks later, the Mustangs are inching toward the wrong side of the bubble following a third straight defeat. Wednesday evening's loss to Miami dropped Andy Enfield's team to 8-9 in ACC play, and the Mustangs are 0-2 with key defensive guard B.J. Edwards sidelined.

SMU is currently one of the last four schools in, according to ESPN's Joe Lunardi. While the Mustangs don't have any Quad 3 or 4 losses, they've failed to produce a Quad 1A win. Saturday's regular-season finale against Florida State is now a huge swing game for SMU's at-large tournament hopes.

Tuesday, March 3

Auburn somehow in mix

It's hard to believe that a 16-14 Auburn team that's under .500 in SEC play still has a shot at making March Madness. The Tigers are very much in the mix for an NCAA Tournament berth following Tuesday's win over lowly LSU, as the result moved them past Indiana as the first team out of the field, according to ESPN's Joe Lunardi.

Auburn's victories over St. John's, NC State, Arkansas, Florida, Texas, and Kentucky are doing a lot of the heavy lifting. But the number of losses - including a recent Quad 3 home loss to Ole Miss - could ultimately doom the program on Selection Sunday. Only two teams have received an at-large bid while being just two games above .500. The Tigers' postseason hopes could come down to shocking archrival Alabama in their regular-season finale.

North Carolina, Cincinnati building steam

North Carolina is hitting its stride at the right time. The Tar Heels held off Clemson on Tuesday to complete an undefeated season at home and capture their fifth win in six games without Caleb Wilson. Hubert Davis could have the star freshman back in the lineup Saturday when his squad concludes the regular season at No. 1 Duke. A victory at Cameron Indoor Stadium would give North Carolina its second season sweep in the last three campaigns and add another signature win to its resume.

The Tar Heels' victory over Clemson likely pushes them up to the 5-line, according to ESPN's Joe Lunardi. It also puts the school in position to secure a top-four seed and double bye in the ACC Tournament. If North Carolina finishes fourth in the conference standings, it could meet Duke for a third time in the ACC semifinals, assuming both emerge victorious in the previous round.

Cincinnati is also catching fire as it pursues its first NCAA Tournament appearance in seven years. Wes Miller is making a strong case to retain his job as the Bearcats have won six of their last seven games. They're now a game above .500 in Big 12 play following a dominant 22-point victory Tuesday over AJ Dybantsa and BYU. During its recent run, Cincinnati's trounced opponents by an average of 19 points, including an impressive 84-68 win over Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse. The Bearcats are currently among the next four schools out, according to Lunardi. But they could prove to be dangerous if they sneak into the Big Dance.

Georgia, TCU likely going dancing

Georgia would've still been in good shape had it lost Tuesday to No. 16 Alabama, but a win just about sends the program to back-to-back NCAA Tournaments for the first time since 2001-02. The Bulldogs picked up their sixth Quad 1 win of the season and had a WAB (wins above bubble) rank of 35 prior to their upset of the Crimson Tide.

The same can be said for TCU, which took down No. 10 Texas Tech to likely punch a ticket to the Big Dance. The Horned Frogs now have five Quad 1 victories on their resume and should climb into the top 40 in WAB. It's a remarkable change of fortune for Jamie Dixon's program after starting out 1-4 in Big 12 play.

Monday, March 2

Miami (OH)'s AD takes on Bruce Pearl

This. Is. March.

Madness month has officially arrived, and tension is rising as the race to the bracket begins. Perhaps the most unexpected drama from Monday came in the war of words between former Auburn coach Bruce Pearl and Miami (Ohio) athletic director David Sayler.

Pearl, who retired from coaching shortly before the season, claimed during a TNT Sports broadcast Saturday that the RedHawks need to win the MAC Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament, even with an undefeated regular-season record.

He reiterated that stance Monday on "Wake Up Barstool," saying that if the RedHawks competed in a major conference like the Big East, they'd finish in the lower half of the standings.

"They may not finish last, but I'll tell you what, I'm not so sure," Pearl asserted.

An underlying angle to the story is that Auburn - now coached by Pearl's son Steven - is firmly on the tournament bubble after losing seven of its last eight games. That wasn't lost on Sayler, who took to social media to fire back at the elder Pearl.

The main argument against Miami (Ohio) making the tournament as an at-large team should it lose in the conference tourney is a strength of schedule that ranks 285th in the nation, according to KenPom. Although it's a valid concern, the RedHawks are just the fourth Division I team in the last 20 years to enter March unbeaten. That alone should be enough to get them in a field of 68 teams.

NC State trending in wrong direction

NC State isn't in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament in its first season under Will Wade. However, an upset of Duke would've helped the Wolfpack steer clear of a potential 8 vs. 9 matchup in the Big Dance, according to ESPN's Joe Lunardi. Instead, the Blue Devils took care of business, handing the spiraling Wolfpack a 29-point defeat on their home floor.

NC State has now dropped five of its past six games. The slide began Feb. 9 against Louisville when it got steamrolled by 41 points. Less than a week later, the Wolfpack blew a seven-point lead at home versus Miami with 1:07 remaining. NC State suffered another 29-point drubbing at the hands of Virginia two contests later. The Wolfpack's next loss to Notre Dame in overtime was probably the worst of them all, as the Fighting Irish entered the tilt with a 3-12 record in ACC play.

If NC State isn't able to snap out if its funk soon, it could be one-and-done for Wade's squad in the NCAA Tournament.

Saturday, Feb. 28

Duke tightens grip on No. 1 overall seed

Less than 24 hours after Michigan stormed past Illinois, Duke made a statement of its own. The Blue Devils rolled past No. 11 Virginia 77-51 at Cameron Indoor Stadium to strengthen their claim on the NCAA Tournament's No. 1 overall seed and halt Virginia's push for a 2- or 3-seed. It was Duke's 10th win of the season over a ranked opponent, with five of those victories coming by 10 points or more.

Jon Scheyer's top-ranked defense lived up to the billing as it did against the Wolverines last weekend, limiting its ACC rival to season lows in both points (51) and field-goal percentage (29.1%). The Cavaliers' potent 3-point attack made just 7-of-35 attempts from beyond the arc, with the Blue Devils smothering them at every opportunity. Virginia made only two field goals in the first 10 minutes, which set the tone for the remainder of the contest. No Cavaliers player outside of Thijs De Ridder reached double digits in scoring.

Duke won by 26 points despite a 3-of-9 outing from Wooden Award front-runner Cameron Boozer. His first field goal didn't come until nearly two minutes into the second half. That's a measure of the Blue Devils' defensive strength and a scary prospect for the rest of the nation.

Arizona virtually locks up No. 1 seed

Arizona is all but assured the top seed in the West Region following an impressive 23-point win Saturday over No. 12 Kansas. While the Wildcats had some margin for error, avenging their previous defeat to the Jayhawks pretty much guarantees their spot on the 1-line, according to ESPN's Joe Lunardi.

Tommy Lloyd's group found an extra gear after Darryn Peterson helped Kansas cut an 18-point deficit to just two with 12:07 remaining. The Wildcats scored 16 unanswered points, with four players accounting for the production as they put the game out of reach. The team has flexed its depth all season long and got Koa Peat back from a three-game absence.

The five-star freshman and future lottery pick poured in 12 points, seven boards, and five assists in 23 minutes of action. Peat's passing out of the low post, interior physicality, and ability to run the floor in transition add yet another dimension to one of the NCAA's top-scoring units.

New Mexico gets pivotal win, hurts San Diego State

New Mexico boosted its chances of making the Big Dance with a tight 81-76 victory Saturday over fellow bubble school San Diego State. The Lobos needed this win after wasting a Quad 1 opportunity earlier in the week against Nevada. Eric Olen's team is now a combined 10-6 against Quad 1 and 2 opponents.

Saturday's result moves New Mexico into the field as one of the last four teams in, while San Diego State's now among the first four out, according to ESPN's Joe Lunardi. The Aztecs' Quad 3 defeat to Troy could come back to haunt them on Selection Sunday. San Diego State and New Mexico have now split their season series and are tied for second in the Mountain West standings ahead of Utah State's meeting with Grand Canyon later Saturday evening.

Friday, Feb. 27

Put Michigan in the Final Four

Look, we'll just say it: It would be stunning if this Michigan team lost in the NCAA Tournament before the Final Four. Competition and bracket draw almost doesn't matter at this point. If the Wolverines play their game, they are going to be a major problem in March. The No. 10 beside Illinois' name should have signaled a tough road test for Dusty May's team. It was anything but.

Michigan led by 21 at one point in the second half before finishing with a 14-point victory, the team's 23rd win by double digits this year. The offensive balance is admirable, but it's the Wolverines' outrageous defense that sent the boisterous home crowd to the bars well before the final buzzer. According to KenPom, the Illini boast the nation's top offensive unit while Michigan sits second in defense. Consider this No. 2's revenge, because the Wolverines had Illinois in hell from the opening tip. Illinois made just 41% of its shots on the night - a significant drop from the 57% it averages on the year. The towering twin duo of Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic made a combined 4-of-13 shots on the night, and they're each shooting over 50% from the field on the year.

The Wolverines can have off shooting nights and are prone to turnovers with 12 per game. However, their defense hasn't taken a night off since early January. Good luck to any squad trying to break that run.

Miami (OH) stays perfect ... barely

The calendar won't hit March for another few hours, but Miami (Ohio) is already fully embracing the madness. The nation's only unbeaten team appeared to be cooked on the road at lowly Western Michigan on Friday, trailing by nine with just over six minutes to play. The team's leading scorer, Peter Suder, had already fouled out, and the RedHawks were officially in the danger zone. Enter: Trey Perry.

The left-handed layup in the dying seconds delivered the win, kept the streak alive, and allowed the NCAA Tournament committee to breathe easy for another night. Despite now sitting 29-0 on the season, the RedHawks are still not a tournament lock if they don't win the MAC based on a dreadful strength of schedule that KenPom ranks 286th in the country.

However, Friday's win marked the seventh of the season by six points or fewer for Miami, fueling the idea that the RedHawks just might be this year's version of Cinderella.

Thursday, Feb. 26

Izzo is winning. March must be near

You don't need a calendar to tell you March is coming when Michigan State basketball can do the same thing. There's a reason Tom Izzo has been one of the most successful coaches in the sport over the past three decades: The man knows how to get his teams to peak at the right time. This year's Spartans are no different, with the latest notch on their resume being a crucial road win Thursday at No. 8 Purdue.

Izzo is once again trotting out a tough, physical group that's strong on defense and rebounds like the ball is late on the rent. The Spartans lead the nation in defensive rebounding percentage, pulling down over 80% of their misses, and rank sixth in the nation in KenPom's defensive efficiency standings. That defense - and the ability to turn on its offense - is largely what delivered Michigan State's first road win at Purdue since 2014. The Spartans forced nine turnovers and parlayed them into 19 points, a devastating ratio that punished the Boilermakers greatly for their mistakes and vaulted Michigan State into a tie for second in the Big Ten standings.

Wednesday, Feb. 25

UConn makes emphatic statement versus St. John's

During Wednesday's massive Big East matchup between UConn and St. John's, the always colorful Dan Hurley had a simple instruction for his team in the huddle.

"Don't give them life right now. Beat their ass."

Never in the history of coaching huddles has a team followed through on a request in a more emphatic fashion. You can spend a year in your local boxing gym and not see a beating like the one the Huskies laid down. A 32-point loss is bad enough, but the Red Storm didn't make a field goal for the final 17:28 of the game, resulting in 24 consecutive missed shots. The woeful finish left them with just 40 points in 40 minutes of action, the fewest scored by a Rick Pitino-coached team in his 1,224-game career, according to Matt Norlander of CBS Sports.

The result likely doesn't change much in regards to NCAA Tournament seeding. UConn was probably already a No. 1, and the dominant showing only solidified that. While this team isn't the wrecking ball that Hurley led to back-to-back titles, the Huskies produce championship-level play when firing on all cylinders.

The Red Storm are likely to remain in a 5-seed position, but there are serious red flags heading into March. Pitino's outfit once again is elite at forcing turnovers, ranking 20th in the nation in that area. However, UConn only gave up the ball five times Wednesday. Take away the easy buckets created by turnovers and the basket can close quickly for St. John's.

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