The NBA moved closer to a slightly expanded 16-team lottery Tuesday, one that will flatten odds of winning the No. 1 pick and try to deter tanking by drastically lowering the chances of winning for the teams that finish with the three worst records.
The “3-2-1 Lottery” proposal, which was reviewed by the league’s general managers, will be further discussed before it goes the Board of Governors for a final vote that is expected next month. It will not change the current format, which will likely be utilized for the final time when the lottery for this year’s draft is held May 10. This would go into effect next year.
The proposed plan will be discussed again at a competition committee meeting on Thursday. It would add two teams to the current 14-team lottery structure and incentivizes winning even for teams that aren’t still in the race for play-in or playoff spots.
The 16 teams in this proposal would all get somewhere between one and three lottery balls — hence the 3-2-1 name that has been attached to the plan — and the awarding of those balls would be broken down thusly:
— The losers of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in games in both conferences would get one lottery ball each.
— The No. 9 and No. 10 seeds going into the play-in tournament would get two lottery balls each.
— The remaining 10 teams that miss the playoffs and the play-in would all get three lottery balls — with the exception of the three worst teams in the standings. They would enter “draft relegation” and have one of their lottery balls taken away, which the NBA hopes would keep teams from trying to lose as many games as they can for the worst possible record. That practice, the so-called “tanking,” has been rewarded in the current system by better lottery odds.
The league was furious this season at how some teams were clearly prioritizing their draft spot over winning, even fining the Utah Jazz $500,000 “for conduct detrimental to the league” over the way two top plays were held out of the fourth quarter of a pair of games — one of which the Jazz actually won.
There was a clear race to the bottom this season with five teams — Washington, Indiana, Utah, Memphis and Brooklyn — all having winning percentages below .180 after the All-Star break. There has never been a season in NBA history, until now, where so many teams lost that often after the break.
“The incentives are not necessarily matched here,” NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said in February when discussing the correlation between the teams with the worst records having the best lottery odds. “I think the tradition in sports where the worst-performing team receives the first pick from their partners, when any economist comes and looks at our system, they always point out you have the incentives backwards there. That doesn’t necessarily make sense.”
Silver has vowed that the league — which has changed the lottery system several times over the past decades — would strongly address the tanking issue before next year.
Odds of winning
The teams that finish with the three worst records would all have a 5.4% chance of winning the No. 1 pick, and could not fall below the No. 12 pick.
But the best odds of winning No. 1 would go to the other seven teams that miss the play-in and the playoffs — with those clubs all having an 8.1% chance of finishing with the No. 1 selection.
The No. 9 and No. 10 play-in seeds would also have a 5.4% chance of winning the lottery, and the losers of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in games would both have a 2.7% chance.
Major changes to odds
The three worst teams this season — Washington, Indiana and Brooklyn — have 14% odds of winning the lottery and are guaranteed a top-seven pick. (In Indiana’s case, if the Pacers finish with the fifth or sixth pick, it would convey to the Los Angeles Clippers because of a previous trade.)
In the proposed system, those teams would have a 5.4% chance of winning and could fall as low as 12th in the first-round draft order. There would be a 72% chance that those teams would fall outside the top five.
“This is a decision that needs to be made at the ownership level,” Silver said earlier this year. “It has business implications, has basketball implications, has integrity implications for the league. It’s one that we take very seriously. We are going to fix it, full stop. I want to say that directly to our fans. ... Incentives need to be fixed. We will fix them. I’m looking forward to that.”
Other proposed changes
More elements within the 3-2-1 proposal include:
— No team could win back-to-back No. 1 picks or have three consecutive picks in the top five.
— No protections in trades would be allowed for picks that fall between Nos. 12 and 15.
— The league would have “expanded disciplinary authority” to address tanking, with potential moves including lowering teams’ lottery odds or even changing draft positions.
— The proposed plan, if approved, would sunset after the 2029 draft and require the Board of Governors to vote to either continue the system or make changes yet again.
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