Owning a 3-2 lead with a Game 6 at home is usually a pretty safe position to be in, especially for a team that once led 3-1. Only 13 NBA squads have ever rallied from a 3-1 series deficit, so why are the Timberwolves, up 3-2 heading back to Minnesota, underdogs?
The answer lies in injuries that have decimated the championship-contending Wolves. Superstar Anthony Edwards is expected to miss multiple weeks after suffering a bone bruise and hyperextension in his left knee in Game 4. Earlier in the same contest, Donte DiVincenzo tore his Achilles and will miss the remainder of the postseason. In a matter of hours, Minnesota lost its starting backcourt - and with it, 41 points per game.
Series odds changes
| Date | Nuggets odds | Wolves odds |
|---|---|---|
| Before Game 1 | -340 | +270 |
| Before Game 2 | -650 | +425 |
| Before Game 3 | -240 | +200 |
| Before Game 4 | +100 | -120 |
| Before Game 5 | +130 | -150 |
| Currently | -150 | +130 |
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The Wolves entered Game 5 as slight favorites in the series and remained competitive in the contest despite losing 125-113 without Edwards and DiVincenzo. With the offense running through Julius Randle and receiving solid bench contributions, Minnesota continued to score effectively. However, 25 turnovers led to 35 points for the Nuggets.
The T-wolves' defense had limited the league's best offense to under 100 points in the previous two contests but faltered in Game 5. Shutting down Nikola Jokic was the key to their success in the previous outings, a task few have accomplished since his rise as a perennial MVP candidate. In the Nuggets' losses in Games 2, 3, and 4, Jokic shot just 34% from the field and 10% from deep. Rudy Gobert's defense on Jokic's post touches and drives was crucial, holding him to just 36% shooting in 42 minutes as his primary defender.
But Jokic's struggles faded in Game 5, as he finished with a 27-point triple-double. Though fatigue contributed to the three-time MVP's earlier shortcomings, Minnesota's strategy of repeatedly targeting him in pick-and-rolls is far less effective without Edwards on the floor.
Optimistic Wolves fans will point to a bench that produced 48 points in Game 5 and the emergence of Ayo Dosunmu, who scored 43 in Game 4. Minnesota also isn't likely to commit 25 turnovers again. Still, Naz Reid's ankle injury in the previous contest only adds to the concerns, as he could be limited moving forward.
Even with Randle and Jaden McDaniels playing well and the club having a physicality edge that's bothered Denver throughout the series, the Wolves might not have enough firepower to win one more game. Oddsmakers clearly aren't convinced.
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