Does Wemby's MVP argument hold up?

Victor Wembanyama isn't hiding from the MVP debate or feigning modesty.

"There should be (a debate), even though I think I should lead the race," the San Antonio Spurs superstar told reporters after recording 26 points, 15 rebounds, five blocks, and four assists in Monday night's win over the Miami Heat. "I'm trying to make sure that at the end of the season, there's no debate."

The 22-year-old entered the final 10 games of the season with the third-best odds to take home the Michael Jordan Trophy behind reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the surging Luka Doncic.

Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic, the currently sidelined Cade Cunningham, and Celtics star Jaylen Brown round out what's been a six-player conversation for much of the season. However, the NBA's 65-game minimum for major award eligibility can still throw the race into chaos. Cunningham will be re-evaluated in the first few days of April after suffering a collapsed lung, and even if the Pistons All-Star is cleared to return immediately, he might need to play all four games in the final week of the season to qualify.

Wembanyama must play in at least eight of San Antonio's final 10 games to qualify. Jokic needs to play nine of Denver's final 10 contests, while the candidacies of Brown (needs one out of 11), Gilgeous-Alexander (five out of 10), and Doncic (five out of 10) are more secure.

Assuming all six players qualify, is Wembanyama's case as strong as he seems to believe? Let's dive in.

The raw numbers

Using NBA.com's fantasy points ranking, here's how the six candidates stack up when it comes to traditional box-score statistics (bold indicates league leader):

1. Jokic: 28.0 PPG, 12.6 RPG, 10.6 APG, 2.3 STL + BLK
2. Doncic: 33.4 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 8.4 APG, 2.2 STL + BLK
3. Wembanyama: 24.3 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 3.0 APG, 4.0 STL + BLK
4. Gilgeous-Alexander: 31.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 6.6 APG, 2.2 STL + BLK
6. Cunningham: 24.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 9.9 APG, 2.4 STL + BLK
10. Brown: 28.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 5.1 APG, 1.4 STL + BLK

The advanced metrics

This is where Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander are in a galaxy of their own.

Jokic is posting the best Box Plus/Minus ever, the second-highest Player Efficiency Rating of all time (second to himself four years ago), and the seventh-best Win Shares per minute ever recorded. Meanwhile, Gilgeous-Alexander's 2025-26 campaign currently ranks as the greatest ever in Win Shares per minute, while the Thunder guard is competing with prime Steph Curry for the most efficient 30-points-per-game season in league history.

As for Wembanyama, the giant Frenchman ranks fourth this season in Basketball Reference's Value Over Replacement Player metric.

Wembanyama also ranks fourth (behind the same top three) when you measure every player's average rank across 10 catch-all advanced metrics, according to Bleacher Report's Andy Bailey.

Team success

One of Wembanyama's main arguments for his candidacy was that his Spurs have dominated Gilgeous-Alexander's Thunder, which is true. San Antonio snapped Oklahoma City's 16-game winning streak by eliminating the Thunder from the NBA Cup in December and has won four of five matchups overall, including three of the four meetings where Wembanyama and Gilgeous-Alexander both played. Put another way, Wembanyama's Spurs are responsible for roughly 27% of the defending champions' losses.

That's a feather in Wembanyama's cap, but the MVP award is about the entire season, not individual matchups. How does he stack up in terms of each candidate's team success when they're in the lineup, on the court, and off the court?

While Gilgeous-Alexander has the best record of this group when he's in the lineup, Wembanyama is tops when it comes to how each player's team performs with its MVP candidate on the court (using net rating per 100 possessions). Shockingly, he's overtaken Jokic in the differential between a team's performance when its star is on the floor compared to on the bench - a stat The Joker has dominated for years. It's worth noting that while I used NBA.com's numbers, Cleaning The Glass (which filters out garbage time) still has Jokic ahead in that regard.

Nevertheless, the team success category favors Wembanyama in a way that admittedly surprised me.

Offense vs. defense

Wembanyama was correct when he said that defense is half the game and in his assessment that it's often underrated when judging players. And there's no doubt that Wemby is the most impactful defensive player on the planet.

His mere presence around the rim spooks opposing players and warps entire teams' shot profiles, while his unprecedented combination of length and agility makes him equally terrifying on switches. He's recorded 39 more blocks and 26 more stocks (steals plus blocks) than any other player. If he meets the 65-game threshold, the only Defensive Player of the Year debate worth entertaining will be who should finish runner-up behind him.

Another of Wembanyama's arguments Monday night was that offensive impact is about more than just total points, which is true. A great shooter or cutter can bend opposing defenses without even touching the ball. A 3-point marksman and a rim-running big man who's efficient inside can each space the floor in their own way. A special playmaker can change a game with his passing without hunting his own shot. That said, while Wembanyama's been a two-way force, there's no world in which his offensive value measures up to the likes of Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, or Doncic, the latter of whom is on pace to win his second scoring title.

Here's how all six candidates stack up when it comes to total points created per game between their scoring and assists, as well as points scored per shot attempt (which includes possessions that end in field-goal attempts or free-throw attempts).

Though Wembanyama carries the Spurs' attack at times, he's more of a play-finishing big man than the orchestrator of his team's offense. That makes it hard for him to measure up to his fellow MVP candidates when it comes to offensive value. Doncic's combination of scoring and playmaking make him one of the most threatening offensive players of all time. Jokic is leading the league in assists while averaging 28 points per game. Gilgeous-Alexander is an unfathomably efficient three-level scorer who's averaging a career high in assists, rarely turns the ball over, and, like Doncic, can get to the free-throw line at will (which is immensely valuable, aesthetics be damned).

Consider this about SGA: Among the 293 instances in which a player has posted a single-season usage rate of at least 30%, the reigning MVP owns two of the 10 lowest turnover rates.

The verdict

All of that information leads us to the deciding question: Is the gap between Wembanyama's defense and that of rival candidates like Gilgeous-Alexander bigger than the gap between their offense and Wemby's? In the case of Doncic, yes - but I'm not convinced when it comes to SGA or Jokic. The former has played impressive perimeter defense for the league's best defensive team and has logged 336 more minutes, while the latter has a truly tremendous offensive advantage.

As Wembanyama's offensive game continues to evolve and he figures out the best shot diet for his otherworldly talents, his efficiency will increase. And he's already done a good job of cutting down his turnovers. He'll continue to close the offensive gap with players like Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokic, and Doncic, while the distance between his defensive performance and everyone else's will only grow.

Wembanyama could be the MVP front-runner as soon as next season, but his 2026 ceiling is likely capped at runner-up; no small feat for a third-year player. Barring injury, it would take an unbelievable performance over the final three weeks of the season for Wembanyama to usurp Gilgeous-Alexander, let alone end the debate the way the big man envisioned.

Joseph Casciaro is theScore's lead NBA reporter.