NBA contenders: 1 reason why each favorite will - and won't - win the title

With the NBA playoffs tipping off Saturday, let's preview the action by looking at the four true contenders in each conference. Below, we outlined how each can win the NBA Finals and what will prevent them from lifting the Larry O'Brien Trophy.

Jump to: Western Conference

Eastern Conference contenders odds

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How they'll win:

Defense. The Thunder laid the blueprint, capturing the title last season with their league-best defense despite shooting 33.8% from three. Meanwhile, the Pistons rank 17th in three-point percentage at 35% this campaign, but they own the NBA's second-best defense. Any deep Detroit run will rely on unrelenting defense, unmatched toughness, and Cade Cunningham's heroics.

Why they won't:

Shooting woes. The Pistons deploy two non-shooters in almost every lineup, notably Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson. Opponents capitalize by barely guarding non-shooting wings on the perimeter, which hurts Detroit's spacing and allows defenses to load up on Cunningham's drives, forcing contested shots.

How they'll win:

Best duo. The Celtics boast a top-four offense and defense and will have a coaching advantage in every series. However, their biggest strength lies in the league's best duo: Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Brown has played at an MVP level all season and remained the top option even after Tatum returned from injury in March. When the two stars are locked in, Boston is nearly unstoppable.

Why they won't:

Settling. Despite Boston's surprising success in 2025-26, this version of the team still falls short of last year's squad that blew two 20-point leads to the Knicks in the postseason. The Celtics are prone to hunting mismatches and settling for contested jumpers instead of getting downhill late in playoff games. If that trend continues, they risk another early exit.

How they'll win:

Clutch offense. Every champion needs a reliable late-game creator and shotmaker, and Jalen Brunson has been as good as anyone in that role over the last three seasons. Thanks to Brunson, the Knicks own the league's best fourth-quarter net rating and third-best clutch net rating.

Why they won't:

Starting lineup issues. The Knicks' lineup of Brunson, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, and Karl-Anthony Towns struggled last playoffs, posting a minus-6.2 net rating. Their performance together this regular season was even worse. Opposing defenses have neutralized the Brunson-Towns pick-and-roll by sticking an athletic wing on Towns and switching the action while daring Hart to shoot. Like his predecessor, Mike Brown has been reluctant to make a change.

How they'll win:

The big four clicks. In 92 minutes together, James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen are outscoring opponents by 26.7 points per 100 possessions and posting a 119.5 offensive rating, which would rank third-best in the NBA. Harden typically combusts in the playoffs, but he clearly elevates the frontcourt and complements Mitchell, who consistently delivers in the postseason.

Why they won't:

Defense. Cleveland's defense, ranked 15th in the league, remains a liability on the perimeter. Additionally, the Cavs struggle to stop opposing guards from penetrating the paint every postseason, while their frontcourt gets routinely bullied by bigs.

Western Conference contenders odds

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How they'll win:

Defense.

The Thunder's league-best defense powered last year's title run, especially as the offense and shooting crumbled in certain playoff moments. Oklahoma City's defensive rating is virtually identical to last season's, and the unit will again serve as the foundation of any repeat bid.

Why they won't:

Secondary scoring. Jalen Williams played only 33 games this season and never consistently found his rhythm, while Chet Holmgren's inconsistent offensive production was frustrating at times. The Thunder shot 33% from three during last year's playoff run, the fourth-worst mark among playoff teams. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander needs dependable scoring support from his teammates.

How they'll win:

Meeting the moment. San Antonio has the profile of a champion: They're the only team to rank top three in offense and defense, boast a top-five player in Victor Wembanyama, and have built a perfectly constructed roster around him. The Spurs also beat the defending champion Thunder in four of five regular-season matchups this campaign. Still, can a fast-paced team handle the physicality and intensity of a two-month postseason, when more possessions are played in the half-court?

Why they won't:

Lack of experience. No team in modern NBA history has won a title with this little playoff experience, with six of the Spurs' top seven scorers having never appeared in a postseason game. Although Wembanyama and his supporting cast are ahead of schedule, they need playoff reps before climbing the mountaintop.

How they'll win:

Nikola Jokic. Few players in NBA history possess the ability to single-handedly carry a team to a title, but Jokic is certainly one of them. He not only raises his own game, but he also elevates the talent around him. Denver owns the league's top offense because of Jokic's brilliance, and he'll be the best player in any series.

Why they won't:

Defense, health. The Nuggets' 21st-ranked defense isn't championship caliber, as only two teams in NBA history have won titles with below-average defenses, according to Basketball Reference's league-adjusted stats. However, Aaron Gordon's and Peyton Watson's extended absences have skewed the numbers. Gordon, who missed more than half the season due to a hamstring injury, makes a significant impact. When he's on the court, Denver is 10 points better per 100 possessions, and its defensive rating would rank in the top five.

How they'll win:

Size. Even without Steven Adams for half the season, the Rockets finished as the league's best offensive rebounding squad, grabbing nearly 39% of its misses. Many of their best offensive possessions come from second chances, creating a cleaner look against a scrambled defense. Houston is dysfunctional, but its only realistic path to the Finals is utilizing its size to dominate opponents on the interior and create extra shots through offensive rebounding.

Why they won't:

Clutch offense. The Rockets' eighth-best offense plummets to 20th-best in clutch situations. Without a true point guard, Houston often relies on Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, and Alperen Sengun to generate late-game offense. As defensive pressure intensifies in the postseason, Houston's fourth-quarter woes will likely become more prevalent.

Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more basketball coverage.

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