NBA Finals betting primer: Can the Heat's offense keep rolling?
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The Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers will face off in the NBA Finals, with Game 1 slated for Wednesday.
Here's all the betting info you need for the championship series.
Series prices
Lakers: -335
Heat: +285
Game 1
Line: Lakers -5
Spread: 218
Tale of the tape
Starting slow is the Lakers' only weakness, as they dropped back-to-back openers in the first two rounds. Aside from that, it's been smooth sailing for star forward LeBron James, who's now in The Finals for the 10th time in his illustrious career.
The Lakers won all three of their previous series in five games. They've been profitable for bettors in the playoffs, going 9-5-1 against the spread. That's hardly surprising, as Los Angeles' net rating has been head and shoulders better than the rest of the field this postseason.
| Team | Net Rating |
|---|---|
| Lakers | 7.7 |
| Celtics | 5.3 |
| Heat | 4.5 |
| Clippers | 4.2 |
| Raptors | 3.8 |
| Jazz | 3.5 |
| Bucks | 1.8 |
| Rockets | 0.8 |
| Nuggets | -2.4 |
| Thunder | -6.6 |
| Pacers | -8.8 |
| Mavericks | -9.3 |
| Magic | -9.6 |
| Trail Blazers | -10.4 |
| 76ers | -12.3 |
| Nets | -20.4 |
Meanwhile, the Heat have been the lovable underdogs throughout the postseason. After getting by the Pacers in four games, they made quick work of both the Bucks and Celtics, who ranked No. 1 and 3 in the league in regular-season net rating, respectively.
Miami hasn't slowed down one bit, either. The club kicked off the playoffs with seven straight covers, and it's 12-3 against the spread overall. Head coach Erik Spoelstra has thrived when getting points this postseason, leading the Heat to seven(!) outright wins as 'dogs. If bettors want to go back to the well, Miami should be getting points in every game during The Finals, barring an unforeseen disaster for the Lakers.
The Heat's offense is the unit to watch in this series. It ranked No. 1 in the NBA in both eFG% and TS% during the regular season, leading to Miami cashing 10 of its last 11 team total overs.
Notable Game 1 betting trends
- Miami is 4-1 ATS over its last five when playing on two days of rest
- Miami is 7-3 ATS over its last 10 as an underdog
- Miami is 3-8 ATS over its last 11 after a double-digit win
- Miami is 4-0 to the over during its last four overall
- Miami is 13-3 to the over during its last 16 Wednesday games
- Miami is 11-5 to the under during its last 16 playing on two days of rest
- Los Angeles is 6-2-1 ATS during its last nine overall
- Los Angeles is 7-15-1 ATS during its last 23 NBA Finals games
- Los Angeles is 5-2 ATS during its last seven after an ATS win
- Los Angeles is 5-0 to the under during its last five NBA Finals games
- Los Angeles is 15-7 to the under during its last 22 after an outright win
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.