Examining Cease's Cy Young candidacy amid Blue Jays' slow start
Through five starts, Dylan Cease has emerged as a fantastic offseason signing for the Blue Jays. However, Toronto's lackluster opening month has prevented him from becoming the early favorite for the AL Cy Young Award.
On Monday, Cease struck out 12 Angels batters in only five innings of work to earn his first win of the season. He now leads the majors with 44 strikeouts and boasts a whopping 15.43 strikeouts per nine innings, the highest among all pitchers. His 2.10 ERA also sits eighth in the American League.
Cease will almost certainly be a Cy Young candidate this year if he can maintain those kinds of numbers over a full campaign.
AL Cy Young award odds
| Player (Team) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal (DET) | +200 |
| Bryan Woo (SEA) | +600 |
| José Soriano (LAA) | +1000 |
| Dylan Cease (TOR) | +1000 |
| Cam Schlittler (NYY) | +1200 |
| Max Fried (NYY) | +1200 |
| Jacob deGrom (TEX) | +2000 |
While Cease's early stats rival those of favorite Tarik Skubal, his odds are five times longer than the reigning AL Cy Young winner's. Skubal's consecutive Cy Young Awards have inflated his price, suggesting the Tigers ace is 24.2% more likely to win than Cease.
However, Cease's odds have shortened from +1600 to +1000, so he's getting some recognition in the betting market - just not enough to push Skubal for the lead.
The Blue Jays, sitting last in a strong AL East at 9-13, are holding Cease back. Their 5-12 performance in April ranks as the fourth-worst record in the majors for the month. If last year's World Series runners-ups continue to struggle, Cease likely won't have enough wins even to earn Cy Young consideration. He's currently projected to win only 10 games this season, according to FanGraphs.
Wins are an important stat for AL Cy Young recipients. Ignoring the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, no AL starting pitcher has claimed the award with fewer than 13 victories.
Toronto needs to get healthy fast and turn things around in the win column, or the team could be wasting Cease's year.
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