TORONTO – At some point in a whirlwind 2021 for the nomadic Blue Jays as they bounced from Florid...

<p>TORONTO – At some point in a whirlwind 2021 for the nomadic Blue Jays as they bounced from Florida to Buffalo before finally settling back in Toronto in late July, Danny Jansen also started making moves.</p><p>Jansen's major-league career to that point had been a bumpy ride, a string of three-plus occasionally promising but often frustrating seasons. By the end of the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, Jansen owned a career .208 batting average through 181 games. His slugging percentage sat at .370. Even by the catcher position's lower offensive standard, Jansen's numbers left something to be desired, particularly for a supposed bat-first catcher whose offensive upside was compelling enough that he was once considered the <a href="https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2019/bluejays/">third-best prospect in the Blue Jays organization</a> behind only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.</p><p>The sample was small, to be sure, but Jansen's struggles at the plate in the early days of his big-league career seemed to suggest he was perhaps trying to do too much.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>So, rather than continue trying to be the more "complete" hitter he was in the minor leagues - the kind who hit .323 across three levels in 2017 and earned above-average grades on his hit tool from FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline - Jansen decided to lean into his natural tendencies at the plate: pulling the ball and hitting it in the air.</p><p>"I think that one of my strengths has always been to pull the ball," Jansen told theScore ahead of a mid-June tilt against the Red Sox. "And (I) struggled in the big leagues for a couple of years, trying to maybe do some things, going everywhere all over the field instead of honing in on what my strength is.</p><p>"I think that I've learned a lot about myself and throughout my career, for sure. Through some success. Through struggle. (I've been) taking the struggle the right way, and then trying to turn it around and figure some things out."</p><p>Now, with the 2024 All-Star break nearing and Jansen in his seventh big-league season and months away from free agency, he's indeed figured some things out. In deciding to reorient his approach toward his strengths, Jansen effectively reshaped his career, making good not only on the plus offensive potential scouts raved about during his minor-league days, but quietly morphing into a premier power hitter - a distinct if unrecognized danger lurking in a Toronto lineup anchored by those second-generation stars.</p><p>Believe it or not, Jansen's actually posted a higher isolated power (.238) than Guerrero Jr. (.211) over the last four seasons, and Vladdy memorably walloped 48 homers in 2021 and finished second in American League MVP voting. Jansen's OPS (.794) and park-adjusted numbers (120 wRC+) are virtually identical to Bichette's over that span (.792, 120). And with 48 home runs in his last 815 at-bats, Jansen's been leaving the yard at an almost-elite pace (17 AB/HR) for years, more frequently than both Yordan Alvarez and Pete Alonso in 2024, for instance.</p><p>An important caveat is that injuries have dogged Jansen over the last few years, limiting him to no more than 86 games played in any of the past three full seasons. He began the 2024 campaign on the injured list with a fractured bone in his wrist, and it remains to be seen whether this season will be his first reaching 400 plate appearances. However, when Jansen's healthy, he's ultimately been as dangerous as almost anyone wearing a Toronto uniform since 2021.</p><figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="ISO leaders" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-4JHnv" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/4JHnv/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="308" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure><p>"I'm definitely not (trying) to get too consumed in the numbers," Jansen said. "(I'm) just trying to go up there and (perform) however I can, help the team win. And if that's doing some slugging, then so be it."</p><p>So be it, indeed. Few hitters in baseball have <a data-in-app-uri="" href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;type=8&amp;month=0&amp;ind=0&amp;startdate=&amp;enddate=&amp;season1=2021&amp;season=2024&amp;qual=900&amp;sortcol=10&amp;sortdir=default&amp;pagenum=1">slugged more efficiently</a> than Jansen since he embraced his new approach, one he noted has "freed (him) up mentally a little bit." And while he'll likely never post an average that approaches his cumulative .271 minor-league mark, Jansen's overall numbers - and the shape of his batted-ball profile - evince a hitter who's both extremely intentional about his pull-heavy, fly ball-heavy approach and extremely effective at executing his plan.</p><figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Jansen stats" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-dwsTn" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/dwsTn/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="253" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure><p>"I think he's just kind of become a master of his craft," said Blue Jays assistant hitting coach Matt Hague. "How he's working now is a testament (to) how well he knows himself, and then what he's looking for. He takes advantage of the things he's trying to execute, and he does it consistently."</p><p>Jansen's consistency can't be overstated. By now, the merits of pulling the ball in the air are extremely well known; a pulled fly ball is the <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-pulled-fly-ball-revolution-was-always-underway/">most valuable kind of batted ball there is</a>. Yet even with more hitters trying to elevate to the pull side - pitchers are meanwhile trying to <em>avoid</em> those types of batted balls - Jansen's consistency stands out. Since 2021, Jansen's rate of pulled fly balls ranks <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfGT=R%7C&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;hfStadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=&amp;hfPull=Pull%7C&amp;hfC=&amp;hfSea=2024%7C2023%7C2022%7C2021%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=batter&amp;hfOuts=&amp;hfOpponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=&amp;game_date_lt=&amp;hfMo=&amp;hfTeam=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfRO=&amp;position=&amp;hfInfield=&amp;hfOutfield=&amp;hfInn=&amp;hfBBT=fly%5C.%5C.ball%7Cline%5C.%5C.drive%7C&amp;hfFlag=&amp;metric_1=&amp;group_by=name&amp;min_pitches=2000&amp;min_results=0&amp;min_pas=0&amp;sort_col=pitch_percent&amp;player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&amp;sort_order=desc#results">second in baseball</a> behind only Nolan Arenado (minimum 2,000 pitches seen).</p><p>Achieving that consistency is a multi-factored process, one that comprises plenty of cage work with another of Toronto's assistant hitting coaches, Hunter Mense, with an emphasis on having a swing path that allows Jansen to "play out front," as Hague put it. In other words: To make contact with the ball out in front of the plate, which leads to a lot of pulled balls and <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/power-hitters-should-make-contact-out-in-front/">higher-quality contact</a>.</p><p>"He doesn't want to play out front with a bad swing path," Hague said.</p><p>Pulling the ball with Jansen's regularity also comes down to swing decisions. And while Jansen's always been a disciplined hitter with a keen sense of the strike zone, one of the critical adjustments he's made over the last few years is laying off pitches that are difficult to pull even if they're <em>inside</em> the strike zone - specifically pitches down and away:</p><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633614/cropped_48a9eee3-7f41-4bdd-990b-39d5e1edd8cd.jpg?ts=1718892591" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633614/w220xh124_48a9eee3-7f41-4bdd-990b-39d5e1edd8cd.jpg?ts=1718892591 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633614/w320xh180_48a9eee3-7f41-4bdd-990b-39d5e1edd8cd.jpg?ts=1718892591 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633614/w640xh360_48a9eee3-7f41-4bdd-990b-39d5e1edd8cd.jpg?ts=1718892591 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633614/w768xh432_48a9eee3-7f41-4bdd-990b-39d5e1edd8cd.jpg?ts=1718892591 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633614/w1080xh607_48a9eee3-7f41-4bdd-990b-39d5e1edd8cd.jpg?ts=1718892591 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption">Jansen's 2019 swing heatmap <span class="article-segment--image-attribution">Baseball Savant</span></figcaption></figure><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633615/cropped_7a1a84f3-ba50-488e-9252-8f0f0b419933.jpg?ts=1718892638" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633615/w220xh124_7a1a84f3-ba50-488e-9252-8f0f0b419933.jpg?ts=1718892638 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633615/w320xh180_7a1a84f3-ba50-488e-9252-8f0f0b419933.jpg?ts=1718892638 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633615/w640xh360_7a1a84f3-ba50-488e-9252-8f0f0b419933.jpg?ts=1718892638 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633615/w768xh432_7a1a84f3-ba50-488e-9252-8f0f0b419933.jpg?ts=1718892638 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/633615/w1080xh607_7a1a84f3-ba50-488e-9252-8f0f0b419933.jpg?ts=1718892638 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption">Jansen's 2024 swing heatmap <span class="article-segment--image-attribution">Baseball Savant</span></figcaption></figure><p>This year, Jansen owns the lowest in-zone swing rate of his career, his attack zone apparently narrowing even further in his perpetual pursuit of optimized contact.</p><p>"(I'm) just trying to get the ball in the heart of the plate," Jansen said. "It's a place where I can do some damage. And (hitting the ball) in the air to the pull side has always been something that I've thought I've been pretty decent at. So I just want to continue to do that."</p><p>In any event, his consistency - in terms of both process and results - has turned Jansen not only into one of the most reliable power sources in Toronto's lineup, but has also distinguished him among his peers at the catcher position: his slugging percentage since 2021 trails only Salvador Perez's among catchers, while his isolated power ranks first by a considerable margin. Jansen actually has more home runs than Adley Rutschman over that span despite registering 553 fewer plate appearances. In total, on a per at-bat basis, Jansen has inconspicuously been one of the game's best offensive catchers for years now.</p><figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="Catcher wRC+ leaders" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-1Owx5" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/1Owx5/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="398" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure><p>Understandably, on account of all his injuries, Jansen's transformation hasn’t resonated throughout the broader MLB world. But the Blue Jays are acutely aware of how dangerous he's become. Jansen's clearly supplanted Alejandro Kirk as Toronto's top catching option, starting behind the plate in almost two-thirds of games since coming off the injured list April 16.</p><p>Meanwhile, in their persistent hunt for more offense, the Blue Jays recently bumped Jansen into the No. 2 spot in their lineup, marking the first time in his big-league career that he's been a regular within the top of the order. Although he's yet to find his footing in that role - he's generally struggled since the end of May - Jansen's still been one of Toronto's most dependable and dangerous hitters this season, ranking second among team regulars in wRC+ (114) and third in isolated power (.182).</p><p>That should come as no surprise to anyone following the Blue Jays closely in recent years. While Toronto's current, rapidly closing competitive window has been colored by so much disappointment and underperformance, Jansen's offensive emergence - albeit in fits and starts - has been a welcome, desperately needed counterbalance. And by embracing that which comes naturally to him at the plate, Jansen's unwittingly become a prototypical modern-day hitter and one of baseball's most complete catchers.</p><p>"I think he's just always trying to get better," Hague said.</p><p><em>Jonah Birenbaum is theScore's senior editor, multimedia. <a href="https://x.com/birenball">Follow him on X.</a></em></p>

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How Danny Jansen quietly became a premier offensive catcher

The game plan for how to get Daulton Varsho out became increasingly obvious as he stumbled throug...

<p>The game plan for how to get Daulton Varsho out became increasingly obvious as he stumbled through a bumpy first season with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2023: Attack him with fastballs.</p><p>Elevated fastballs, ideally. </p><p>Despite his above-average bat speed (71st percentile, according to Baseball Savant's new metrics), Varsho's struggles against fastballs (high fastballs, specifically) generally played an outsized role in what was undeniably the nadir of his young career.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>While he recorded full-season worsts in virtually every meaningful offensive category, including batting average (.220) and slugging percentage (.389), Varsho saw fastballs 58.2% of the time, an increase of almost seven percentage points from the year prior.</p><p>He saw more <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=FF%7CSI%7CFC%7C&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfGT=R%7C&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;hfStadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=&amp;hfPull=&amp;hfC=2strikes%7C&amp;hfSea=2023%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=batter&amp;hfOuts=&amp;hfOpponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=&amp;game_date_lt=&amp;hfMo=&amp;hfTeam=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfRO=&amp;position=&amp;hfInfield=&amp;hfOutfield=&amp;hfInn=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfFlag=&amp;metric_1=&amp;group_by=name-year&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;min_pas=0&amp;sort_col=pitches&amp;player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&amp;sort_order=desc#results">fastballs in two-strike counts</a> than all but 26 hitters out of more than 600. And Varsho saw a greater percentage of fastballs at the top of the strike zone than anyone else in the majors.</p><p>Why? Because he hit only .236 against four-seamers. He slugged just .380 against sinkers. And against elevated fastballs - both four-seamers and sinkers - he mustered an expected weighted on-base average of .299. The book was decidedly out.</p><p>"In the past, like coming up through the minor leagues, I did a really good job of being able to hit the heater," Varsho said ahead of Monday's series opener against the Baltimore Orioles. He then lamented getting "a little bit exposed" by the big leagues' higher-quality heaters.</p><p>"I mean, everybody's throwing harder than they've ever thrown now."</p><p>Indeed, the average fastball in 2024 hums in at 94.1 mph, tied for the highest league-wide velocity mark ever.</p><p>Despite that, Varsho's made great strides towards shoring up his most pronounced weakness at the plate.</p><p>Varsho's been one of the Blue Jays' best hitters through the first two-plus months of the season, leading the club in home runs (10) and isolated power (.247; the difference between slugging percentage and batting average) while trailing only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Davis Schneider in wRC+ (118). That turnaround is due to his increased success against fastballs.</p><figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe title="On a heater" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-PyPEo" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/PyPEo/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="365" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
</script></figure><p>How's he done it? Through a multifaceted series of adjustments that include: </p><ol>
<li>"A conscious understanding of how guys are going to throw (to) you," i.e. better game-planning and approach</li>
<li>A mechanical tweak to create a shorter bat path</li>
<li>Improved barrel control that allows him to get the sweet spot of the bat on the ball more consistently.</li>
</ol><p>The results have been quite promising, although the 2024 campaign is still within the borders of small sample territory.</p><p>Excluding his 37-game cameo as a rookie in 2020, Varsho's never had a slugging percentage better than .440 against four-seam fastballs in a big-league season. This year, the 27-year-old's pulverized four-seamers to the tune of a .550 slugging percentage. For reference: Aaron Judge has slugged .544 against four-seamers in 2024, while Varsho's mark also tops Kyle Schwarber's and Freddie Freeman's.</p><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/631502/cropped_GettyImages-2155538777.jpg?ts=1717535106" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/631502/w220xh124_GettyImages-2155538777.jpg?ts=1717535106 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/631502/w320xh180_GettyImages-2155538777.jpg?ts=1717535106 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/631502/w640xh360_GettyImages-2155538777.jpg?ts=1717535106 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/631502/w768xh432_GettyImages-2155538777.jpg?ts=1717535106 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/631502/w1080xh607_GettyImages-2155538777.jpg?ts=1717535106 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> <span class="article-segment--image-attribution">G Fiume / Getty Images Sport / Getty</span></figcaption></figure><p>Varsho boasts a .306 isolated power against four-seamers and sinkers, which is 115 points higher than his 2023 mark and significantly better than it was in 2022 when he smacked a career-high 27 homers for the Arizona Diamondbacks.</p><p>"It's really cool to see Varsh make that adjustment," said teammate Daniel Vogelbach, who Varsho credited as a key figure in his bounce back. "Now, he can pretty much hit anything in the zone."</p><p>To be fair, that last remark may be a bit of a stretch, as Varsho continues to struggle against elevated fastballs, slugging just .273 with an average exit velocity of 81.7 mph against heaters in the top third of the strike zone. He's also whiffing on elevated fastballs more than ever.</p><p>Still, if there's any consolation, he's seeing fewer fastballs at the top of the zone than he has in years, perhaps a concerted response by opposing pitchers to his improved general production against the pitch. Additionally, of the two hits he recorded on elevated heaters in 2024, both went for extra bases, including an April homer at Petco Park that came off his bat at 103.7 mph.</p><p>It remains to be seen whether these improved results are sustainable and if he can find a way to mitigate the still-remaining weaknesses at the top of the zone. At the moment, Varsho looks far more like the hitter Toronto thought it acquired in last offseason’s blockbuster trade with Arizona for Gabriel Moreno and considerably less like the guy who often looked overmatched against velocity in 2023.</p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/27489663/related

Varsho has turned his biggest weakness into a strength

This story ran in June as a part of our Hall Pass series on players who we believed deserved hall...

PHILADELPHIA - AUGUST 7: Former Philadelphia Phillies infielder Dick Allen takes part in the Alumni Night celebration before a game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park on August 7, 2010 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Mets won 1-0.

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Dick Allen, the oft-maligned superstar, played angry - understandably

The most unusual season in modern baseball history is officially behind us, and the stage is set ...

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Where will MLB's top 10 free agents end up?

Throughout October, the Tampa Bay Rays consistently championed their "process," a blanket term fo...

<p>Throughout October, the Tampa Bay Rays consistently championed their "process," a blanket term for the data-oriented, convention-eschewing approach that permeates every facet of the organization, from scouting to player development to, most germanely, in-game decision-making.</p><p>Their process engenders plenty of eye-rolling from traditionalists and progressives alike, and it's not always conducive to the most entertaining baseball, but it was nevertheless instrumental in propelling a team with a (prorated) $28-million payroll to the second-most wins in the majors and an American League pennant in 2020.</p><p>"We value our process," Rays manager Kevin Cash <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/10/18/randy-arozarena-alcs-mvp-rays-advance-world-series">explained</a> after Game 7 of the American League Championship Series, in which he removed starter Charlie Morton after only 66 pitches and 5 2/3 scoreless innings. "It's just, that's what we do. We believe in our process, and we're gonna keep doing that."</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>Evidently, their process stipulates that Morton ought not face a lineup for a third time in a game, and allows for no improvisation, no adjusting for the circumstances. On that occasion, it worked out. On Tuesday, with their season on the line in Game 6 of the World Series, the Rays' unwavering fealty to their process - that unwillingness to read the game and deviate from their data-driven scripts - arguably cost them a shot at forcing Game 7 and precipitated what will undoubtedly be remembered as one of the most egregious tactical decisions in World Series history in an eventual 3-1 loss.</p><p>Through five-plus innings, Blake Snell was nearly perfect, squelching the Dodgers' mighty lineup with a brilliant four-pitch mix and ably preserving the 1-0 lead Randy Arozarena staked him to in the first with solo shot. Snell allowed only two hits without walking a batter, and was missing both bats and barrels with ease: the Dodgers struck out nine times, whiffing on almost half (47%) of their swings, while their average exit velocity was 78.4 mph, per <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?game_pk=635886&amp;game_date=2020-10-27&amp;type=away_pitchers&amp;chart_view=pitch&amp;chart_type=callName&amp;inning=&amp;count=&amp;batter_hand=&amp;pitcher_hand=&amp;filter=&amp;player=home-pitchers_520980&amp;view=Umpire&amp;coloring=Pitch%20Type">Baseball Savant</a>. Yet, as soon as Dodgers leadoff hitter Mookie Betts began striding to the plate for his third at-bat in the bottom of the sixth following a one-out single from Austin Barnes, Cash burst out of the dugout to relieve Snell, much to the left-hander's demonstrable chagrin and Los Angeles' delight.</p><p>"Oh, man, it was kind of a sigh of relief," Betts <a href="https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1321320266887290881">quipped</a> afterward. "If he had stayed in the game, he might have pitched a complete-game (shutout)."</p><p>To that point, Snell had thrown only 73 pitches. He looked functionally unhittable. And Betts struggled mightily against left-handers (.531 OPS) in 2020, albeit over a small sample, and looked particularly hapless in his first two at-bats against Snell in Game 6, going down swinging both times. Still, the Rays - beholden to their process - were unmoved by those data points or Snell's plainly observable dominance. Like most every other pitcher, Snell isn't immune to the third-time-through-the-order penalty, and Cash was never going to entertain allowing him to face the top of the Dodgers' lineup for a third time.</p><p>"I didn't want Mookie or (Corey) Seager seeing Blake a third time," Cash <a href="https://twitter.com/CBSSportsHQ/status/1321300982186287108">explained</a>. "... I thought the thought process was right."</p><p>Almost immediately, the Rays' season slipped away. Nick Anderson, who surrendered at least one run in each of his previous six outings, promptly served up a double to Betts, which he followed up with a wild pitch that allowed Barnes to score the tying run. Moments later, the Dodgers grabbed the lead thanks to some outstanding baserunning from Betts, who managed to score on a grounder to first from Seager. </p><p>By the end of the night, the Dodgers had snapped their 32-year championship drought. And the decision that sparked that game-changing rally typified the tension between the so-called eye test and analytics, and will likely come to be viewed as a watershed moment in the evolution of the game.</p><p>"I don't care what the numbers say," Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier <a href="https://twitter.com/JCTSports/status/1321305175412383751">said</a>. "That was Blake's game. That might've been the best I've seen him. That was incredible."</p><p>To be sure, the Rays didn't lose the World Series simply because of their tactical inflexibility in Game 6. The Dodgers were the better team, and looked like it throughout the series. Their offense beat up on Tampa Bay's vaunted staff, bashing a dozen homers with an .819 OPS in six games, while the Rays' highly fluid, platoon-heavy lineup had no answer for Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, or Julio Urias, who combined to throw almost half of Los Angeles' innings for the series. It's also entirely possible the Dodgers - who have the league's most prolific offense - would've gotten to Snell had Cash left him in. (And, it should be noted, it's unfair to pin this decision - and the Rays' loss - entirely on Cash, who is but a cog in a machine that has long been resolved to subvert and revolutionize baseball's practices.)</p><p>For now, though, it's hard to not view the decision to remove Snell as a grievous failure of flexibility, a head-shaking result of an insular process that, as sensible as it may be, still isn't perfect. Analytics are eminently valuable, and data should always be taken into consideration, but the Rays' slavish adherence to their numbers-driven process results in an inattentional blindness that yields moves like this one, which are painfully disconnected from what's actually happening in the game.</p><p>Had they been a bit more pliable, maybe their season wouldn't be over. </p><p><em>Jonah Birenbaum is theScore's senior MLB writer. He steams a good ham. You can find him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/birenball">@birenball</a>.</em></p>

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The Rays stuck to their process. It might've cost them a World Series

As much as Clayton Kershaw had chipped away at his complicated legacy of postseason failure this ...

<p>As much as Clayton Kershaw had chipped away at his <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/2033110" href="https://www.thescore.com/news/2033110">complicated legacy</a> of postseason failure this October - crafting a 2.88 ERA through four outings and turning in a gem in the World Series opener - his latest attempt to expunge the lone blight on his Hall of Fame resume ultimately hinged on Game 5.</p><p>A slipup Sunday at Globe Life Field, with the series suddenly tied at 2-2 following the Los Angeles Dodgers' <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/2043657" href="https://www.thescore.com/news/2043657">nightmarish collapse</a> in Game 4, would've negated his prior efforts. His reputation as a playoff choker - which, again, isn't as clear-cut as his inflated ERA may suggest - would've been reinforced in the minds of many baseball fans, perhaps irretrievably.</p><p>However, in his biggest start of the year, Kershaw didn't falter. Instead, the three-time Cy Young Award winner capped his redemptive postseason with a gutsy 5 2/3 innings against the Tampa Bay Rays, propelling the Dodgers to a 4-2 win and putting them on the precipice of their first championship in 32 years. And while the vaunted left-hander walked off the mound in the bottom of the sixth inning with many of the Dodgers fans in attendance shaking their heads - a reaction he no doubt grew accustomed to over the years as his postseason misfires mounted - their frustration on this occasion wasn't with him. Rather, they were peeved at manager Dave Roberts for taking him out.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>Ironically, had Roberts relieved Kershaw two innings earlier, the decision may have been less controversial. Unlike in Game 1, when he limited Tampa Bay to one run over six innings, Kershaw didn't have his best stuff Sunday. His slider, which became his most frequently used pitch this year, was markedly less sharp: After generating 11 whiffs with the pitch in the series opener, Kershaw induced only seven in Game 5 despite throwing just one fewer slider. With his primary weapon dulled and his command occasionally spotty, Kershaw didn't look nearly as invulnerable.</p><p>In the bottom of the third, after being staked to an early 3-0 lead, Kershaw gave two runs back, serving up a triple to Yandy Diaz - aided by a rare miscue in right field by Mookie Betts - on a fastball that caught too much of the plate and a single from Randy Arozarena on a hanging 3-0 curveball. Neither ball was scorched - each had an exit velocity between 93-94 mph - but it was still hard not to see the combination of poor batted-ball luck (Kevin Kiermaier reached on a tapper to lead off the inning) and imperfect execution as a precursor to another devastating start.</p><p>And, sure enough, Kershaw's outing looked poised to fully unravel an inning later. After a leadoff walk to Manuel Margot, who promptly reached third following a stolen base and an error, Kershaw issued another free pass to Hunter Renfroe, putting runners at the corners with nobody out. The stage was set for another memorable Kershaw implosion. Had Roberts gone to his bullpen to extinguish the threat, it would've been understandable. Instead, he stuck with his ace.</p><p>His ace delivered.</p><p>First, Kershaw induced an infield pop-up from Joey Wendle, who couldn't get his barrel on a 92-mph fastball perfectly located on the inside edge of the plate. Then, Kershaw flummoxed Willy Adames with a masterful three-pitch sequence, getting him to chase a curveball out of the zone for strike three. And, before he could retire Kiermaier for the inning's final out, Kershaw instead nabbed Margot, cutting down the intrepid outfielder as he attempted the first <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBONFOX/status/1320545624069197824">steal of home</a> in a World Series game since 2002.</p><p>From that point onward, Kershaw was perfect. He needed only 16 pitches to retire the next five batters he faced, the first two via strikeout. By the time Roberts emerged from the dugout with two outs and nobody on in the bottom of the sixth, his club's lead extended to two runs, Kershaw was so locked in that even Justin Turner - who knows all too well what can happen when too much is asked of Kershaw - was lobbying his manager to leave the lefty in. (Turner was unsuccessful.)</p><p>All told, Kershaw allowed two runs on five hits and two walks over 5 2/3 innings, surrendering only three hard-hit balls while notching six strikeouts to become the all-time postseason strikeout <a href="https://twitter.com/SInow/status/1320550601537867784">leader</a>. While it wasn't the most dominant performance of his career, it was enough. It's a fitting capper to a postseason that should recalibrate the collective perception of Kershaw, at least a little bit.</p><p>Assuming he doesn't pitch in relief in Game 6 (or, if necessary, Game 7), Kershaw finishes his postseason with a 2.93 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. He struck out 37 and issued just five walks over 30 2/3 innings. L.A. won all but one of his five starts. It was, in short, the finest October of his singular career.</p><p>While the Dodgers may or may not end up winning the Fall Classic, Kershaw will bear no responsibility if they come up short: He allowed three runs combined in his two World Series starts, fashioning a 2.31 ERA while holding the Rays to a .179 batting average. Never before, moreover, had Kershaw won two games in a single postseason series.</p><p>Simply put, Kershaw's postseason performance finally reflected his greatness instead of undermining it. This time around, there were no pained sound bites to dispense. ("Maybe one of these days, I won't fail, we won't fail, and we'll win one of these things," Kershaw told <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/11/02/dodgers-clayton-kershaw-world-series-game-7-legacy/824328001/">USA Today</a> following the 2017 World Series.)</p><p>This time around, the definitive image of Kershaw's postseason isn't one of <a href="https://twitter.com/Beer_Baron88/status/1316934103502127105">defeated despondence</a>. Instead, thanks in large part to his own brilliance, the most indelible image of Kershaw this October may well be one of him hoisting the Commissioner's Trophy.</p><p><em>Jonah Birenbaum is theScore's senior MLB writer. He steams a good ham. You can find him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/birenball">@birenball</a>.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/15757855/related

Kershaw caps redemptive October with gutsy Game 5 effort

No team knows October agony like the Los Angeles Dodgers. Over the past three-plus decades, the D...

<p>No team knows October agony like the Los Angeles Dodgers. Over the past three-plus decades, the Dodgers have endured a century's worth of heartbreaking postseason losses in vain pursuit of another championship. The recent years, in particular, have been rife with them, like, for instance, Game 4 of the 2014 National League Division Series against the St. Louis Cardinals. Game 5 of the 2017 World Series against the Houston Astros was pretty bad, too. And their loss to the Washington Nationals in the decisive game of last year's NLDS was excruciating.</p><p>However, never before in their eight-year run of dominance atop the NL West have the Dodgers suffered a playoff loss as devastating as Saturday's collapse in Game 4 of the World Series against the Tampa Bay Rays, a walk-off, series-evening, 8-7 defeat ending in such incomprehensibly nightmarish fashion that it elicited <em>this</em> reaction from manager Dave Roberts:</p><figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Dodgers, dog.<br><br>😬😬😬<a href="https://t.co/MY0bKeGTBT">pic.twitter.com/MY0bKeGTBT</a></p>— Sporting News (@sportingnews) <a href="https://twitter.com/sportingnews/status/1320219780343681024?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 25, 2020</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure><p>His tortured face says it all. If the Dodgers don't end up winning the World Series, which is now a best-of-three, this loss will haunt the franchise and its fanbase.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>Consider, first of all, the circumstances of the game's mind-boggling final play: Brett Phillips' single off deposed closer Kenley Jansen, which, thanks to an egregious sequence of Dodgers' miscues, allowed the tying and winning runs to score with two outs in the bottom of the ninth.</p><p>Phillips, who entered as a pinch-runner in the eighth inning, hadn't gotten a hit in a month heading into Game 4. He wasn't even included on Tampa Bay's roster for the American League Championship Series. The Rays likely would've preferred almost anyone else at the plate in that situation. Phillips, a former sixth-round pick, owns a .202/.284/.347 line across parts of four seasons in the majors, managing a worse wRC+ (67) <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=350&amp;type=8&amp;season=2020&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2017&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;startdate=2017-01-01&amp;enddate=2020-12-31&amp;sort=17,a&amp;page=2_30">since the start of 2017</a> than Ryan Goins, Greg Allen, and Wilmer Difo. Yet, against the Dodgers' increasingly vulnerable closer, Phillips delivered, stroking a soft line drive to center for what was ostensibly the game-tying hit. L.A.'s win expectancy, per <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?date=2020-10-24&amp;team=Rays&amp;dh=0&amp;season=2020">FanGraphs</a>, sat at 83.7% when Phillips - as favorable a matchup as Jansen, a three-time All-Star, could hope for - stepped into the box.</p><p>As it turned out, however, Phillips' hit didn't merely tie the game. Instead, the Rays escaped with a victory thanks to two horrific defensive gaffes by the Dodgers, one from Chris Taylor, who booted Phillips' liner in center field, and another from catcher Will Smith, who whiffed on Max Muncy's relay throw and allowed Randy Arozarena to stumble home for the winning run. That kind of loss stings in May. To self-immolate so spectacularly in the World Series is downright traumatic.</p><p>"This is a tough one," Roberts <a href="https://twitter.com/michaeljduarte/status/1320225912240177152">told reporters</a> afterward.</p><p>Still, as devastating and improbable as that finish was, it felt like a somewhat fitting conclusion to a game in which the Dodgers repeatedly failed to put away the Rays, whose bats suddenly awoke Saturday following three quiet games.</p><p>Between their ineffective relief pitching (5 ER over 4 IP), faulty management (Roberts <a href="https://twitter.com/MikeDiGiovanna/status/1320237742236655617">told </a>Pedro Baez he was finished after the sixth inning then sent him back out in the seventh to get lit up again), and spectacular ninth-inning collapse, the Dodgers squandered three leads - 4-2, 6-5, and 7-6. They frittered away a game that saw their win expectancy hover above 70% for at least one appearance in the third, fourth, fifth, sixth, eighth, and ninth innings.</p><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/424119/Screen_Shot_2020-10-25_at_12.27.52_AM.jpg?ts=1603600114" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/424119/Screen_Shot_2020-10-25_at_12.27.52_AM.jpg?ts=1603600114 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/424119/Screen_Shot_2020-10-25_at_12.27.52_AM.jpg?ts=1603600114 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/424119/Screen_Shot_2020-10-25_at_12.27.52_AM.jpg?ts=1603600114 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/424119/Screen_Shot_2020-10-25_at_12.27.52_AM.jpg?ts=1603600114 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/424119/Screen_Shot_2020-10-25_at_12.27.52_AM.jpg?ts=1603600114 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> <span class="article-segment--image-attribution"></span></figcaption></figure><p>By definition, that is a highly winnable contest, a game that baseball's best team - and not by an insignificant margin - <em>should</em> win. Instead, Game 4 reaffirmed the Dodgers' two biggest (and perhaps only) vulnerabilities - their relief corps, which now owns a 6.62 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in the World Series, and Roberts' managerial acumen. The issues have dramatically changed the complexion of a series Los Angeles seemed destined to win in the wake of its commanding Game 3 victory.</p><p>The Rays are now slight favorites to prevail in the series, per <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/post-season-zips">FanGraphs</a>, which makes sense considering Tampa Bay will start Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, and Charlie Morton in the next three games. The Dodgers may have to go with a bullpen game for Game 6 following Clayton Kershaw's Game 5 start, or use Walker Buehler on short rest in Game 6 and cross the proverbial Game 7 bridge when, and if, they get there.</p><p>The Dodgers' outlook has dimmed considerably. Should their streak of futility extend another year, their Game 4 defeat will arguably go down as the most painful chapter in their long-running series of torturous October meltdowns.</p><p><em>Jonah Birenbaum is theScore's senior MLB writer. He steams a good ham. You can find him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/birenball">@birenball</a>.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/15743408/related

Stunning collapse in Game 4 could haunt Dodgers for a long time

The Los Angeles Dodgers retook control of the World Series on Friday, besting the Tampa Bay Rays ...

<p><em>The Los Angeles Dodgers retook control of the World Series on Friday, besting the Tampa Bay Rays 6-2 in Game 3 behind a brilliant effort from Walker Buehler and more timely hitting from their potent lineup en route to a 2-1 series lead. Here are a few takeaways from their Game 3 victory.</em></p><h3>Dodgers hitters excel in any count</h3><p>The Dodgers' preposterously deep and star-studded lineup excels in so many ways. No team, for instance, hit for more <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=8&amp;season=2020&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2020&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0,ts&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;startdate=2020-01-01&amp;enddate=2020-12-31&amp;sort=10,d">power</a> than Los Angeles during the abbreviated 2020 regular season. No team made <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=2&amp;season=2020&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2020&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0,ts&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;startdate=2020-01-01&amp;enddate=2020-12-31&amp;sort=16,a">quality</a> contact at a higher rate, either. And no team did a better job hitting with two strikes.</p><p><strong>Highest weighted-on base average (wOBA) with two strikes, 2020</strong></p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Team</th>
<th>wOBA</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>LAD</td>
<td>.271</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SF</td>
<td>.268</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>ATL</td>
<td>.253</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SD</td>
<td>.252</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NYY</td>
<td>.250</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p>(Courtesy: <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;stadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=&amp;hfGT=R%7C&amp;hfC=2strikes%7C&amp;hfSea=2020%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=batter&amp;hfOuts=&amp;opponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=&amp;game_date_lt=&amp;hfInfield=&amp;team=&amp;position=&amp;hfOutfield=&amp;hfRO=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfFlag=&amp;hfPull=&amp;metric_1=&amp;hfInn=&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;group_by=team&amp;sort_col=woba&amp;player_event_sort=api_h_launch_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;min_pas=0&amp;chk_stats_abs=on&amp;chk_stats_hits=on&amp;chk_stats_woba=on#results">Baseball Savant</a>)</p><p>The club's collective knack for two-strike hitting has been on display throughout the postseason - <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;stadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=&amp;hfGT=PO%7C&amp;hfC=2strikes%7C&amp;hfSea=2020%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=batter&amp;hfOuts=&amp;opponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=&amp;game_date_lt=&amp;hfInfield=&amp;team=LAD&amp;position=&amp;hfOutfield=&amp;hfRO=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfFlag=&amp;hfPull=&amp;metric_1=&amp;hfInn=&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;group_by=name&amp;sort_col=woba&amp;player_event_sort=api_h_launch_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;min_pas=0&amp;chk_stats_abs=on&amp;chk_stats_hits=on&amp;chk_stats_woba=on#results">half</a> of Mookie Betts' hits through Game 2 of the World Series came in two-strike counts, as did Cody Bellinger's go-ahead home run in Game 7 of the NLCS - but never more so than in Friday's victory. </p><p>Of the Dodgers' 10 hits in Game 3, all but <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?game_pk=635923&amp;game_date=2020-10-23&amp;type=team_home&amp;chart_view=pitch&amp;chart_type=events&amp;inning=&amp;count=strike2&amp;batter_hand=&amp;pitcher_hand=&amp;filter=single,double,triple,home%20run&amp;player=home-pitchers_450203&amp;view=Umpire&amp;coloring=Pitch%20Type">three</a> came with two strikes, including all four of their most impactful hits by <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/liveplays.aspx?date=2020-10-23&amp;team=Rays&amp;dh=0&amp;season=2020">win probability</a> added: Justin Turner's solo shot off Charlie Morton in the first; Max Muncy's two-run single in the third; Betts' run-scoring single in the fourth; and Austin Barnes' unexpected, lead-padding homer off John Curtiss in the sixth. The bulk of that damage was done off Morton, who allowed just one run through his first three postseason starts, and, more germanely, held hitters to a .170/.207/.284 line in two-strike counts this year.</p><p>Ultimately, Game 3 further evinced how difficult the Dodgers' lineup is to navigate for opposing pitchers, not only due to its abundance of All-Stars and former MVPs, but because the team's hitters, almost to a man, are comfortable hitting while behind in the count. Even with two strikes on them, they refuse to expand the zone, continuing to get off quality swings and produce.</p><h3>Turner gets his moment</h3><p>No player embodies the Dodgers' ongoing futility in October like Clayton Kershaw. But Justin Turner, their venerable third baseman, has also been around for most of the recent heartbreak. And just like Kershaw had his moment in Game 1, and his memory to savor should the Dodgers finally end their championship drought this year, Turner has made his mark, too, following a 2-for-5, two-run effort highlighted by that first-inning homer, which tied him with Duke Snider for the most (11) in Dodgers postseason history.</p><p>Prior to Friday, Turner's postseason had been somewhat of a disappointment. Through his first 14 contests, the Dodgers' No. 3 hitter in each of those games had slashed just .216/.328/.353, a far cry from his robust regular-season numbers. Meanwhile, Turner had recorded a <em>negative</em> win probability added in all but four games, a byproduct of his struggles during run-scoring opportunities. To date, he's hitting just .118 with runners in scoring position this postseason, and the veteran has driven in only three runs in 17 such at-bats.</p><p>Suddenly, however, Turner's postseason is no longer a disappointment. He's now poised, should the Dodgers pull this off, to be one of the heroes, which would be well deserved considering how important the 35-year-old has been to this powerhouse franchise.</p><h3>Arozarena struggling with offspeed diet</h3><p>Until the ninth inning of Game 3, the Dodgers had all but silenced Randy Arozarena, the rookie phenom who hit .382/.433/.855 with seven home runs through the first three rounds of the postseason. Much of that damage came off <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=FF%7CFT%7CFC%7CSI%7C&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;stadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=&amp;hfGT=PO%7C&amp;hfC=&amp;hfSea=2020%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=batter&amp;hfOuts=&amp;opponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=2020-09-28&amp;game_date_lt=2020-10-19&amp;hfInfield=&amp;team=&amp;position=&amp;hfOutfield=&amp;hfRO=&amp;home_road=&amp;batters_lookup%5B%5D=668227&amp;hfFlag=&amp;hfPull=&amp;metric_1=&amp;hfInn=&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;group_by=name&amp;sort_col=woba&amp;player_event_sort=api_h_launch_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;min_pas=0&amp;chk_stats_abs=on&amp;chk_stats_hits=on&amp;chk_stats_woba=on#results">fastballs</a>, and he's generally experienced far more success against fastballs than any other pitch type throughout his nascent career. </p><p>So the Dodgers decided to feed the prodigious 25-year-old a steady diet of offspeed and breaking pitches. Through the first two games of the World Series, as Arozarena notched just one measly infield single in six at-bats (albeit with three walks), fastballs accounted for less than a quarter of the pitches he saw.</p><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Split</th>
<th>FB%</th>
<th>wOBA</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>WC + LDS + LCS</td>
<td>41.5%</td>
<td>.513</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>WS Gms 1+2</td>
<td>24.1%</td>
<td>.281</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p>That approach continued to pay dividends for the Dodgers in Game 3. Walker Buehler's fastball is electric, but he threw Arozarena just four heaters over three plate appearances (and only two inside the strike zone), resulting in a three-pitch strikeout, a flyout to deep center, and another strikeout. And that fourth-inning flyout, which rocketed off Arozarena's bat at 100.5 miles per hour and produced an expected batting average of .760, came off a fastball.</p><p>Yet, with two outs in the ninth inning and a four-run lead, deposed closer Kenley Jansen deviated from the plan that had been so effective to that point in the series, throwing Arozarena six straight fastballs while trying to secure the game's final out. He failed. </p><p>Jansen opted to just let it eat, as he does - nine out of every 10 pitches Jansen throws is some kind of <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=445276&amp;b_hand=-1&amp;gFilt=&amp;pFilt=FA%7CSI%7CFC%7CCU%7CSL%7CCS%7CKN%7CCH%7CFS%7CSB&amp;time=year&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=pcount&amp;s_type=2&amp;startDate=03/30/2007&amp;endDate=10/24/2020">fastball</a>, either a cutter or a sinker - and got burned for it, serving up a poorly located 3-2 cutter that Arozarena deposited into the left-field seats for his <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBStats/status/1319841869023596544">record-tying</a> eighth postseason home run. It was also the game's hardest-hit ball, with an exit velocity of <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?game_pk=635923&amp;game_date=2020-10-23&amp;type=exit_velocity&amp;chart_view=pitch&amp;chart_type=pitch_name&amp;inning=&amp;count=&amp;batter_hand=&amp;pitcher_hand=&amp;filter=&amp;player=home-pitchers_450203&amp;view=Umpire&amp;coloring=Pitch%20Type">111.3 mph</a>.</p><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/423992/Screen_Shot_2020-10-24_at_12.22.39_AM.jpg?ts=1603513404" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/423992/Screen_Shot_2020-10-24_at_12.22.39_AM.jpg?ts=1603513404 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/423992/Screen_Shot_2020-10-24_at_12.22.39_AM.jpg?ts=1603513404 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/423992/Screen_Shot_2020-10-24_at_12.22.39_AM.jpg?ts=1603513404 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/423992/Screen_Shot_2020-10-24_at_12.22.39_AM.jpg?ts=1603513404 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/423992/Screen_Shot_2020-10-24_at_12.22.39_AM.jpg?ts=1603513404 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> <span class="article-segment--image-attribution"></span></figcaption></figure><p>And as disheartening as it might've been for Jansen, it was an instructive at-bat for Los Angeles. Not only did it validate the Dodgers' game plan and reinforce how untenable it is to throw Arozarena fastballs in the zone right now, but it also illustrated why Jansen is a poor matchup for the burgeoning star. His one-dimensional repertoire makes him particularly vulnerable against Arozarena, and Dodgers manager Dave Roberts should avoid using him in high-leverage spots for the remainder of the series if the outfielder is due up.</p><h3>Bold strategy, Dave</h3><p>The vulnerability of the Dodgers' bullpen looms large over this series. As such, it was a bit curious to see Roberts use three of his most trusted relievers - Jansen, hard-throwing rookie Brusdar Graterol, and ground-ball extraordinaire Blake Treinen - to close out a somewhat lopsided game, potentially limiting their availability (and/or reducing their effectiveness) over the next couple of games.</p><p>On one hand, neither Graterol nor Treinen had pitched since the NLCS finale, and Jansen hadn't appeared since Game 6 of that series, so they were overdue for some work. However, one or more of them could now be asked to pitch on three consecutive days after not doing that during the regular season, which generally seems ill-advised, especially with the three-batter rule in place. </p><p>This may end up being a non-issue, but if any of those three falter over the next couple of days, it'll be hard not to look back at Game 3 and wonder why, say, Victor Gonzalez, Jake McGee, and/or Dylan Floro weren't asked to handle the late innings with the Dodgers staked to a comfortable lead.</p><p><em>Jonah Birenbaum is theScore's senior MLB writer. He steams a good ham. You can find him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/birenball">@birenball</a>.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/15724557/related

Dodgers rake in any count, and other takeaways from their Game 3 win

In tandem with their famously small payroll and consistently pitiful attendance numbers, the Tamp...

<p>In tandem with their famously small payroll and consistently pitiful attendance numbers, the Tampa Bay Rays are defined by their tactical ingenuity. No team defies orthodoxy quite like the Rays, who don't have a go-to lineup and who deploy their relievers in the most aggressive and unconventional ways. That pioneering mindset - especially in the latter regard - played an integral role in getting them to the World Series.</p><p>With the American League pennant on the line Saturday, Rays manager Kevin Cash pulled starter Charlie Morton in the middle of a gem against the Houston Astros. Morton hadn't allowed a run. He'd thrown only 66 pitches. He was working with a 3-0 lead. But when a two-out single in the top of the sixth brought the tying run to the plate, Cash - keenly aware of Morton's pronounced third-time-through-the-order struggles - went to the bullpen, unfazed. The decision, which drew widespread ire, worked out: Nick Anderson promptly retired the first batter he faced, quashing the threat.</p><p>It was Cash's second "controversial" move in as many days. The day prior, Cash removed Blake Snell, his club's ostensible ace, in the top of the fifth, after the former Cy Young Award winner allowed the first two batters of the inning to reach. Like Morton, Snell was pitching a shutout to that point. The decision irked Snell, who called it "frustrating," but it can't have surprised him. <em>This</em> - optimizing every matchup and eking out every marginal advantage, aesthetics be damned - is what the Rays do. It's how they win.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>Yet in Game 1 of the World Series, the Rays curiously deviated from that script. Instead of an early call to his behemoth of a bullpen in the series opener, Cash afforded his starter, Tyler Glasnow, an unusually long leash against the game's most prolific lineup, a decision that precipitated a disastrous fifth inning and led to a series-opening, 8-3 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers.</p><p>As electric as his stuff looked, Glasnow, the towering right-hander who managed a 4.66 ERA across his first four 2020 postseason starts, wasn't particularly sharp in his first World Series start. His fastball sizzled, topping out at 101 mph, and his curveball befuddled in concert, but his command was off: Glasnow consistently worked deep into counts from the get-go, and had already issued four walks - and allowed a two-run homer to Cody Bellinger - on 86 pitches by the time the fifth inning came around.</p><p>Still, even with the top of the Dodgers' lineup - the formidable trio of Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, and Justin Turner - due up, Cash sent his laboring starter back out there. Considering the Rays' modus operandi, it was fair to presume Glasnow would be lifted at the first sign of trouble.<em> </em>But he wasn't.</p><p>Glasnow walked Betts on five pitches. He walked Seager, too. Yet Cash remained uncharacteristically passive, leaving Glasnow in for another <em>three </em>batters and taking him out only after a line-drive single from Will Smith extended the Dodgers' lead to 4-1. At that point, L.A.'s win expectancy was 91.8%, per <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?date=2020-10-20&amp;team=Dodgers&amp;dh=0&amp;season=2020">FanGraphs</a>. Glasnow ended up throwing 112 pitches. Only twice during the abbreviated regular season did Glasnow reach triple digits, with his previous season high being 105. Two more runs ultimately scored in the inning, both charged to him.</p><p>In Cash's defense, Glasnow is something of an anomaly in that he has few third-time-through-the-order issues. For his career, Glasnow's <a href="http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/oPj5W"><em>more</em></a> effective facing an opponent for the third time in a game than he is in their first or second plate appearances. Moreover, once Betts made it to third base with less than two outs (he swiped it on a double-steal with Turner at the plate), there is some merit to going with - or rather leaving in - your best strikeout pitcher: Glasnow posted the <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=pit&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=20&amp;type=1&amp;season=2020&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2020&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;startdate=2020-01-01&amp;enddate=2020-12-31&amp;sort=7,d">11th-highest strikeout rate</a> (38.2%) in the majors this year among those with at least 20 innings pitched, trumping even elite relievers in that department. And Glasnow <em>did</em> induce weak contact on the unconverted fielder's choice off the bat of Max Muncy that scored Betts from third with one out.</p><p>On the other hand, Tampa Bay's bullpen - that "stable of guys who throw 98," as Cash <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2020/10/19/inside-the-stable-a-primer-on-the-rays-fearsome-bullpen/42856027/">put it</a> - is deeper and stronger than any other <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=rel&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=3&amp;season=2020&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2020&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0,ts&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;startdate=2020-01-01&amp;enddate=2020-12-31&amp;sort=2,d">in the game</a>. It's one of the bedrocks of the Rays' success. All of their relievers were somewhat rested, too, and have a scheduled breather Thursday after Game 2. Cash could've gone to one of his late-inning stoppers, be it Pete Fairbanks or Diego Castillo, following the leadoff walk to Betts or after the subsequent walk to Seager, and still had plenty of firepower for later in the game. <em>That</em> move would've been decidedly on-brand for the Rays, who used their occasional closer, Anderson, in the sixth inning a few days ago. Instead, after making it abundantly clear in the ALCS that he would rather take his starter out an inning too early (and risk pissing him off) than a batter too late, Cash stuck with a clearly-scuffling Glasnow, who likely won't be able to pitch again in any capacity until Game 5 after so exerting himself in the series opener.</p><p>Whether the series lasts five games remains to be seen. But in order to upset these seemingly invincible Dodgers, the Rays will need to be every bit as tactically aggressive and adaptable as they were through the previous three rounds of the postseason and not nearly as - dare I say it - old school as they were in Game 1.</p><p><em>Jonah Birenbaum is theScore's senior MLB writer. He steams a good ham. You can find him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/birenball">@birenball</a>.</em></p>

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Rays deviate from script in Game 1 thumping

The 116th edition of the World Series gets underway Tuesday at Globe Life Field, where the Los An...

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Who has the edge? Rays-Dodgers position-by-position comparison

All season long, the Los Angeles Dodgers waited.  Throughout its charmed 2020 campaign, baseball'...

<p>All season long, the Los Angeles Dodgers waited.</p><p>Throughout its charmed 2020 campaign, baseball's best team waited for its ostensible second-best player to perform up to his capabilities, or to even vaguely resemble the player he was a year ago, when he won the National League MVP award. As the Dodgers tormented the league with their unrivalled star power and depth, Cody Bellinger underwhelmed.</p><p>It seemed the league adjusted to him in the wake of his monster season. Pitchers fed him fewer fastballs than ever. He struggled to adjust back. Bellinger started chasing more. He wasn't making hard contact as regularly. Eventually, he was bumped down in the batting order. He finished the shortened season with career-worsts in almost every meaningful category. And amid breakouts from Corey Seager and Will Smith, along with day-in, day-out brilliance from Justin Turner and newcomer Mookie Betts, Bellinger ceased being <em>the</em> <em>man </em>for the Dodgers.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>On Sunday night, however, Bellinger bolstered his case - and changed the narrative of his 2020 season - with one swing.</p><p>Bellinger, who was 4-for-23 (.174) through the first six games of the National League Championship Series, delivered the decisive blow in Game 7, clobbering a go-ahead solo home run in the seventh inning against the Atlanta Braves to propel the Dodgers to a 4-3 come-from-behind victory and their third pennant in four years.</p><p>It was a monstrous clout, and Bellinger knew it was gone as soon as he hit. He enjoyed it thoroughly, perhaps <em>too</em> much: he <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/2040894" href="https://www.thescore.com/news/2040894">injured his shoulder</a> celebrating with Kiké Hernandez. The blast saw Bellinger become the first player to ever homer in Game 7 of the NLCS <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBStats/status/1318043471295504385">on multiple occasions</a>, but more importantly, it helped the Dodgers cap a historic comeback - L.A. is the eighth club to win a league championship series after trailing 3-1 - that reaffirmed how singularly talented this team is.</p><p>Even for the Dodgers, who boast the strongest roster of their eight-year stretch of dominance atop the NL West, winning three straight against Atlanta seemed highly improbable - the Braves lost three consecutive games once en route to a third straight division title, and had lost one playoff game <em>total</em> through Game 4 of the NLCS. Yet L.A. refused to capitulate after its offense disappeared in the first two games and Clayton Kershaw stumbled late in Game 4, besting the Braves in Games 5 and 6 - victories fueled by an offensive outburst from Seager and a command performance from Walker Buehler - to set up a winner-take-all finale. And while Game 7 began inauspiciously, with the Braves taking an early 2-0 lead, the Dodgers evened the score as the late innings dawned, evincing a resilience typified in Bellinger's pivotal at-bat.</p><p>Bellinger, who lined out and walked twice in his first three plate appearances Sunday, didn't swing until he had two strikes on him against Chris Martin, the veteran right-hander who'd already thrown 3 2/3 scoreless innings in the series coming into Game 7. Bellinger took a first-pitch cutter for a strike, worked the count back in his favor by laying off two straight sinkers off the plate, then took another backdoor cutter for strike two. He fouled off the next pitch. And the next one. And the next one. Then, on pitch No. 8, Martin left a sinker over the heart of the plate, belt-high, and Bellinger unloaded.</p><figure class="article-segment--embed"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Cody Bellinger knew that ball was gone 😤<br><br>(via <a href="https://twitter.com/MLB?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@MLB</a>)<a href="https://t.co/buYn3420LV">pic.twitter.com/buYn3420LV</a></p>— ESPN (@espn) <a href="https://twitter.com/espn/status/1318031716318138375?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 19, 2020</a>
</blockquote> <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></figure><p>A mighty swing, but Bellinger wasn't the Dodgers' lone hero in Game 7. Betts, who dazzled in right field all series, robbed Freddie Freeman of a home run in the fifth inning with another sensational leaping grab, keeping his club's deficit to one. Hernandez tied the game at 3-3 in the sixth with a pinch-hit solo shot. Julio Urias, the emergent left-hander, pitched three superb innings to close out the game. And Dave Roberts, the Dodgers' longtime manager, had the fortitude to stick with Urias for the ninth with his club clinging to a one-run lead, rather than go to a veteran like Kenley Jansen or even Kershaw. Absent Bellinger's home run, however, those moments aren't necessarily <em>moments</em>. Perhaps they're simply plays lost to someone else's history.</p><p>At any rate, Bellinger's season will no longer be defined by those disappointing first 60 games. Instead, it'll be defined by his pennant-winning home run and what comes next.</p><p>And if the Dodgers' epic NLCS comeback is any indication, his Game 7 homer will end up being one of many indelible moments in an ultimately unforgettable season for a franchise and a fanbase that has waited so long - and endured so much heartbreak, particularly in recent years - for one.</p><p><em>Jonah Birenbaum is theScore's senior MLB writer. He steams a good ham. You can find him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/birenball">@birenball</a>.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/15683539/related

Bellinger changes 2020 narrative with heroic Game 7 blast

In a year so uniquely and unrelentingly nightmarish, the Houston Astros were baseball's logical c...

<p>In a year so uniquely and unrelentingly nightmarish, the Houston Astros were baseball's logical champions.</p><p>Universally loathed. Unrepentant in the wake of their sign-stealing scandal, for which not a single active player was suspended or even fined. Mediocre on the field absent Justin Verlander, whom they lost to injury on Opening Day, and amid drop-offs from multiple key hitters. A playoff team only by virtue of this wacky season's expanded postseason, which allowed multiple losing clubs - the Astros, being one - to vie for the World Series. Of <em>course</em> that team would win a ring in 2020, a year best summed up visually by the Michael Scott <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umDr0mPuyQc">"Please God, no!"</a> meme.</p><p>Thankfully, in this instance, at least, the worst outcome imaginable won't come to pass.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>On Saturday, the Astros' remarkable playoff run came to an end. After sweeping the Minnesota Twins in the best-of-three wild-card round, then pummelling the Oakland Athletics in the best-of-five league division series, the Astros were finally bested by the Tampa Bay Rays, dropping Game 7 of the American League League Championship, 4-2, after improbably winning three straight to force the decisive contest. The Rays, who finished with the best record in the AL this year, will head to the World Series for the first time since 2008, while the Astros will now start gearing up for a potentially transformative offseason, in which several key cogs (namely George Springer and Michael Brantley) are eligible for free agency.</p><p>And even for the most evolved among us, it's impossible not to feel at least a smidgen of joy over Houston's defeat, no matter how much sympathy and admiration one might have for Dusty Baker, who was brought in to shepherd this disgraced flock - and imbue a bit of charm into a profoundly unlikeable team - after AJ Hinch was suspended (then fired) in January. Had the Astros showed even a modicum of remorse after being exposed as cheats, perhaps baseball and its fans wouldn't be delighting in their loss and wouldn't have so fervently rooted for it. Instead, though, the Astros opted for collective defiance, cementing themselves as pariahs and villains who everyone wanted to see fail.</p><p>"It's all about silencing the haters," outfielder Josh Reddick <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/2020/10/05/astros-silence-haters-alds-athletics/114222108/">said</a> ahead of the ALDS. "That's what all this year was about."</p><p>"I know a lot of people are mad," shortstop Carlos Correa <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/2032534" href="https://www.thescore.com/news/2032534">said</a> days earlier. "I know a lot of people don’t want to see us here, but what are they going to say now?"</p><p>Well, <em>now</em>, they're going to say this: You had to cheat your way to a championship in 2017, thereby tarnishing the most prosperous stretch in your franchise's history, and your abortive 2020 season only proves that your past triumphs were illegitimate. That may or may not be true, of course, but they're going to say it - and they're going to say it loudly and repeatedly.</p><p>To their credit, the Astros played good baseball throughout the postseason (<a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/2038757" href="https://www.thescore.com/news/2038757">Jose Altuve's defense excepted</a>) and looked like a different team than they were during their truncated, 29-31 regular season. After struggling all season to generate offense at even close to the level they did in 2019, their star-studded lineup rebounded in October, upping their OPS and runs per game despite squaring off against three elite pitching staffs. The pitching staff improved on its regular-season numbers, too, shaving its collective ERA down by almost a full run even amid less-than-stellar contributions from every starter except Framber Valdez - a testament to both the Astros' bullpen and Baker's deft deployment of his arms.</p><p>They weren't even definitively outplayed by the Rays, who nearly became just the second team ever to squander a 3-0 lead in the league championship series. In fact, in their seven games, none of which were decided by more than three runs, Houston markedly outhit the Rays, trumping them in all three slash-line constituents. The Astros struck out far less frequently and did a better job with runners in scoring position. And for as widely praised as the Rays' assemblage of arms is, they allowed the exact same number of earned runs for the series as did Houston's pitching staff while allowing considerably more baserunners. The margin of victory, in other words, was but a couple bounces. Had Tampa Bay's defense not taken away so many base hits with its exceptional defense, or had Charlie Morton (who won a World Series with Houston in 2017, incidentally) been even the least bit off in Game 7, the Astros may well be on their way to yet another World Series. But, to almost universal delight, they're not.</p><p>Watching a losing team win the World Series would've been anathema to baseball fans and a blow to the integrity of the title. But watching the Astros hoist the Commissioner's Trophy, basking in the misplaced righteousness of their continued defiance, would've been downright tragic.</p><p>Fortunately, thanks to the Rays, that potential crisis has been averted.</p><p><em>Jonah Birenbaum is theScore's senior MLB writer. He steams a good ham. You can find him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/birenball">@birenball</a>.</em></p>

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What a relief: The Astros are finally finished

No team did more damage against fastballs this year than the Atlanta Braves. Admittedly, their li...

<p>No team did more damage against <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=FF%7CFT%7CFC%7CSI%7C&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;stadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=&amp;hfGT=R%7C&amp;hfC=&amp;hfSea=2020%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=batter&amp;hfOuts=&amp;opponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=&amp;game_date_lt=&amp;hfInfield=&amp;team=&amp;position=&amp;hfOutfield=&amp;hfRO=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfFlag=&amp;hfPull=&amp;metric_1=&amp;hfInn=&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;group_by=team&amp;sort_col=woba&amp;player_event_sort=api_h_launch_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;min_pas=0&amp;chk_stats_abs=on&amp;chk_stats_hits=on&amp;chk_stats_woba=on#results">fastballs</a> this year than the Atlanta Braves. Admittedly, their lineup hammered <em>every</em> pitch type en route to a team-wide .832 OPS and 5.73 runs per game - the best and second-best marks in the majors, respectively - but the Braves feasted, in particular, against heaters.</p><p>Walker Buehler, whose team's season depended on him shutting down Atlanta's potent offense in Game 6 of the National League Championship Series on Saturday, was undoubtedly aware of that as he took the mound at Globe Life Field. He just didn't care. </p><p>Instead, the Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander leaned even more heavily than usual on his electric four-seamer, somehow adding more oomph to an already-elite fastball and effectively daring the Braves to hit it. For the most part, they couldn't. And with six gutsy, scoreless innings, during which he navigated his way out of multiple jams, Buehler not only helped the Dodgers - who looked like they were toast two days ago - force a seventh and final game in their NLCS matchup with a 3-1 victory, but he also reaffirmed his ace status at the most opportune moment.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>Despite turning 26 only a couple of months ago, Buehler, a first-round pick who became a consensus top-25 prospect within two years of his professional debut, has been flirting with the label for a while now. As a rookie in 2018, he fashioned a<strong> </strong>2.62 ERA with an 0.96 WHIP across 23 starts and one relief appearance for the Dodgers, ranking 11th in the majors in park-adjusted ERA and 14th in park-adjusted FIP among pitchers with at least 130 innings, and he ultimately finished third in National League Rookie of the Year voting.</p><p>In 2019, Buehler racked up more WAR (5.0, according to FanGraphs) than all but 10 other starters, crafting a 3.26 ERA and 3.01 FIP en route to his first career<strong> </strong>All-Star nomination and down-ballot Cy Young votes. Meanwhile, he also supplanted Clayton Kershaw as the Dodgers' best starter, outperforming the fading legend and displacing him on the depth chart: it was Buehler, not Kershaw, who landed the starting assignment for Games 1 and 5 of the Dodgers' ill-fated National League Division Series matchup against the Washington Nationals.</p><p>In 2020, however, after forcing his way into the <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=pit&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=8&amp;season=2019&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2018&amp;ind=0&amp;team=&amp;rost=&amp;age=&amp;filter=&amp;players=&amp;startdate=&amp;enddate=">"Who's the best starter in baseball not named Jacob deGrom or Gerrit Cole?" conversation</a> with two brilliant seasons in a row, Buehler looked rather human, albeit over a small sample. The Dodgers were decidedly cautious with him in summer camp, and Buehler wasn't fully stretched out by his season debut. He wasn't sharp, either.</p><p>In his first start of 2020, Buehler allowed two earned runs over just 3 2/3 innings against the Houston Astros. His next time out, he allowed three home runs in five innings against the San Diego Padres. By the time he landed on the injured list due to a blister problem on his right hand in late-August, Buehler owned a 4.32 ERA across five starts, totaling 25 innings.</p><p>Buehler rejoined the rotation by early September, but the blister issue wasn't resolved: he made just three starts over the season's final month - two of them were quite good - and took more than two weeks between his penultimate and final outing of the campaign. He finished the year with a career-worst 3.44 ERA, a respectable figure that nevertheless belied his 4.36 FIP - the byproduct of bloated home run and walk rates - which was worse than those of <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=20395&amp;position=P">Nick Margevicius</a>, Matt Andriese, and Chris Mazza.</p><p>His inconsistency - and consequent inability to pitch deep into games - persisted into the postseason. In his Game 1 start against the Milwaukee Brewers in the wild-card round, Buehler lasted only four innings, allowing two runs - via a homer by the light-hitting Orlando Arcia - on three hits and two walks. In his next start, against the Padres in the NLDS, Buehler failed to make it through five, issuing four walks and allowing two hits over four innings of one-run ball. And in the NLCS opener, Buehler again struggled with his command, making it through five innings despite allowing a season-high five walks.</p><p>On Saturday, though, with the Dodgers' season on the line, Buehler turned in one of his strongest outings of 2020, a restorative gem in which he struck out six and allowed six hits - all singles - without walking a batter. He not only regained the command that eluded him over his previous couple of outings (and that has defined his stellar career thus far), throwing a season-high 73% of his 89 pitches for strikes, but he did so with extra giddy-up, adding more than half an mph to his fastball.</p><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th>Regular season</th>
<th>Game 6 vs. ATL</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Strike %</td>
<td>64%</td>
<td>73%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Average four-seam velocity (MPH)</td>
<td>96.8</td>
<td>97.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p>With that extra velocity at his disposal, Buehler leaned on his fastball more than usual, deploying it nearly 60% of the time, or roughly 6% more frequently than he did during the regular season. Of his 13 whiffs, 10 came on fastballs. And when he found himself in a jam early, it was his fastball that got him out of it, the Braves' success against heaters be damned.</p><p>With the bases loaded in the top of the second and nobody out, Buehler - staked an early 3-0 lead - decided to dispense with mixing pitches and relied almost exclusively on his four-seamer, which batters mustered just a .165 weighted on-base average (and .199 xwOBA) off of this season. The strategy worked. Buehler proceeded to retire the next three batters in order, notching successive strikeouts and an inning-ending grounder via a torrent of four-seamers - 11 in a 13-pitch span, none of them clocked below 97.7 mph - to keep Atlanta off the board.</p><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/423153/Screen_Shot_2020-10-17_at_5.40.31_PM.jpg?ts=1602985713" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/423153/Screen_Shot_2020-10-17_at_5.40.31_PM.jpg?ts=1602985713 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/423153/Screen_Shot_2020-10-17_at_5.40.31_PM.jpg?ts=1602985713 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/423153/Screen_Shot_2020-10-17_at_5.40.31_PM.jpg?ts=1602985713 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/423153/Screen_Shot_2020-10-17_at_5.40.31_PM.jpg?ts=1602985713 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/423153/Screen_Shot_2020-10-17_at_5.40.31_PM.jpg?ts=1602985713 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> <span class="article-segment--image-attribution"></span></figcaption></figure><p>From that point onward, Buehler "allowed" only one more runner to reach third base: after singling with two outs in the sixth, Dansby Swanson stole second and advanced to third on catcher Austin Barnes' errant throw. Buehler promptly quashed the threat by striking out Austin Riley.</p><p>All told, despite surrendering a fair number of hard-hit balls, and he did need his defense to <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBONFOX/status/1317592437100060673">bail him out</a> on a couple of occasions, Buehler nevertheless turned in a brilliant start when the Dodgers needed it most - like an ace does - while whittling his cumulative postseason ERA down to 1.89. And if this is indeed a sign of things to come, an indication Buehler is past the blister problems and once again capable of dominating as he did over the last two seasons, the Dodgers are in great shape moving forward.</p><p>Assuming, that is, they can win Game 7.</p><p><em>Jonah Birenbaum is theScore's senior MLB writer. He steams a good ham. You can find him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/birenball">@birenball</a>.</em></p>

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After up-and-down season, Buehler shows he's an ace at most opportune time

Jose Altuve, the Houston Astros' embattled second baseman, is having a rough go of it in the fiel...

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Jose Altuve may have the yips, but he's also raking

Few managers in baseball history boast a resume as long and illustrious as Dusty Baker. Over his ...

<p>Few managers in baseball history boast a resume as long and illustrious as Dusty Baker. Over his 23 seasons as a big-league skipper, Baker has racked up more regular-seasons wins (1,892) than all but 14 others, and he recently became the first manager ever to shepherd five different clubs into the postseason.</p><p>Yet, despite all the accolades - he's all but guaranteed to be feted in Cooperstown one day - Baker's managerial career still feels like one defined more by failure than success. Famously, Baker has yet to lead a team to a World Series title in nearly a quarter-century of managing in the big leagues, and it has felt in recent years like the postseason only begins in earnest once Baker's team is ousted in excruciating fashion. Long before agreeing this past winter to helm the disgraced Houston Astros following a two-year hiatus, Baker had endured more October heartbreak than any one man should.</p><p>And the Astros, bless their hearts, have kept Baker's tradition of agonizing autumns alive in 2020.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>After sweeping the Minnesota Twins in the best-of-three wild-card round and pummelling the Oakland Athletics in the best-of-five, the Astros are on the verge of being swept by the Tampa Bay Rays in the best-of-seven league championship series thanks in part to a stunning defensive breakdown from All-Star second baseman Jose Altuve. Plagued, evidently, by a case of the yips - a sudden and inexplicable inability to throw the baseball - Altuve committed three grievous errors over the course of Games 2 and 3, with two of those gaffes leading to multi-run innings for Tampa Bay that dramatically changed the complexion of each game and ultimately factored heavily into Houston's current 3-0 series hole.</p><p>Yes, the Astros mustered little offense in three games against Tampa Bay, putting up a <em>total</em> of five runs against that vaunted staff, but Altuve's disastrous defensive work nevertheless played a pivotal role in setting the stage for yet another regrettable ending for Baker.</p><p>Determining where Altuve's meltdown ranks on the list of October calamities that Baker has presided over isn't easy considering the sheer volume and the fact that Houston could technically come back and win the pennant. That's highly improbable, though, so we gave it a shot, ranking them - in this non-exhaustive list - from least to most hellish.</p><h3>Cue-to! Cue-to! (2013)</h3><p>Johnny Cueto was at the top of his game in 2013. The year prior, he finished fourth in National League Cy Young voting. The year after, Cueto came in second, behind only Clayton Kershaw. And had he not missed nearly two-thirds of the 2013 campaign due to a variety of injuries, he likely would've cracked the top five in three consecutive seasons: Between his numerous stints on the injured list that year, Cueto authored a 2.82 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP over 11 starts. He was particularly dominant against the Pittsburgh Pirates, too, limiting them to one run - and a microscopic .079 batting average - in 12 1/3 innings against them. Naturally, Baker, then in his sixth and final season at the helm in Cincinnati, started Cueto for his club's do-or-die wild-card game at PNC Park. And, sure enough, he faltered. Cueto, who was visibly rattled by the pumped-up, highly partisan crowd, didn't make it out of the fourth, serving up four runs on eight hits - including a pair of second-inning solo shots from Marlon Byrd and Russell Martin - and one walk in an eventual 6-2 loss. It was just the second time all year that Cueto allowed more than three runs in an outing.</p><figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TcLUw3_oN1g" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen=""></iframe></figure><h3>Latos languishes in Game 5 (2012)</h3><p>In 2012, the Reds enjoyed their finest season since the halcyon days of the Big Red Machine, capturing a division title with the second-most wins in the National League (97). Their best-of-five division series against the San Francisco Giants got off to an auspicious start, too, with the Reds winning consecutive games at AT&amp;T Park. Upon returning to Cincinnati, however, the Reds imploded. In Game 3, their offense shriveled up, mustering only one run against Ryan Vogelsong and a parade of relievers in a 2-1, extra-innings loss. In Game 4, the Reds got blown out, losing 8-3 despite chasing Giants starter Barry Zito in the third inning. Then, in the decisive Game 5, Baker afforded Mat Latos far too long a leash, leaving the right-hander in to serve up a fifth-inning grand slam to Buster Posey even after five of the previous six batters had reached base and pushed Latos' pitch count above 90. The Reds lost 6-4. The Giants went on to win the World Series.</p><figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/P1TVP5OsqZk" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen=""></iframe></figure><h3>Altuve gets the yips (2020)</h3><p>Jose Altuve, who won a Gold Glove earlier in his career, didn't commit a single throwing error during the truncated 2020 regular season. He graded out as plus by <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&amp;year=2020&amp;team=&amp;range=year&amp;min=q&amp;pos=4&amp;roles=&amp;viz=show">Statcast's outs above average</a>, too. Clearly, though, even supreme defenders aren't immune to the yips. In Game 2 on Monday, after the Astros dropped the series opener, a shifted Altuve bounced the throw to first on a routine grounder from Ji-Man Choi with two outs in the bottom of the first - the first symptom of his new condition - to extend the inning and put runners at first and second. The next batter, Manny Margot, clobbered a three-run shot to left field that increased Tampa Bay's win expectancy to 78.4%, per <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/plays.aspx?date=2020-10-12&amp;team=Rays&amp;dh=0&amp;season=2020">FanGraphs</a>. Two innings later, Altuve committed a <a href="https://www.mlb.com/video/brandon-lowe-reaches-on-an-error?t=alcs">similar error</a> on a grounder from Brandon Lowe. The Astros eventually lost.</p><figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe src="https://streamable.com/m/manuel-margot-s-three-run-homer" width="560" height="315"></iframe></figure><p>Then, in Game 3, his affliction reared its head again. With the Astros clinging to a one-run lead in the sixth, Altuve skipped his throw to second on a potential double-play ball off Lowe's bat, putting runners at first and second with nobody out and ultimately keying a five-run outburst for the Rays, who won 5-2. As Game 4 looms, the Astros' chance of winning the series, according to <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/post-season-zips">FanGraphs</a>, sits at 3.8%.</p><figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe src="https://streamable.com/m/arozarena-safe-on-altuve-s-error" width="560" height="315"></iframe></figure><h3>Scherzer implodes in relief (2017)</h3><p>After staving off elimination against the Chicago Cubs in Game 4 of the NLDS, the Washington Nationals - division champs for the second time in as many years with Baker calling the shots - looked poised early in the decisive fifth game to exorcise their demons and win their first-ever playoff series. A four-run explosion off Kyle Hendricks in the bottom of the second gave them a bit of breathing room, and the Nationals still had the lead when Baker summoned Max Scherzer, who would soon win a second straight Cy Young award, from the bullpen for the top of the fifth. But, in his first relief appearance in four years - and working on two days' rest following his masterful Game 3 start - Scherzer wasn't sharp, nor was the Nationals' defense behind him: After Scherzer retired the first two batters of the inning, the Cubs grabbed the lead via three consecutive hits (which were followed by an intentional walk), plus a passed ball, catcher's interference, and a hit-by-pitch. The Nationals' comeback attempt proved futile; they lost 9-8, and Baker wasn't retained for the 2018 campaign.</p><figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ih-9bmfEnKs" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen=""></iframe></figure><h3>The Bartman game (2003)</h3><p>Almost 20 years later, Steve Bartman still bears the burden of the Cubs' iconic collapse in Game 6 of the 2003 National League Championship Series, and it just ain't right. The Cubs were plenty culpable themselves for turning their 3-0 lead into an 8-3 deficit in that fateful eighth inning and ultimately extending their since-broken curse. It wasn't Bartman's fault that Baker, then in his inaugural season with Chicago, left Mark Prior in past the point of exhaustion, forcing the doomed right-hander to throw 119 pitches even though he was clearly toast - and the Marlins were rallying - long before that point. It wasn't Bartman's fault that shortstop Alex Gonzalez failed to turn a routine chopper from Miguel Cabrera into the second out of the inning, loading the bases for Derrek Lee. It wasn't Bartman's fault that Kyle Farnsworth, who belatedly came on in relief of Prior, served up a three-run double to Mike Mordecai, who posted a .601 OPS that year, to quash any chance of a Cubs comeback. And it certainly wasn't Bartman's fault that the Cubs lost Game 7.</p><figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jpuOsnAZd5Q" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen=""></iframe></figure><h3>Nine outs away (2002)</h3><p>The Bartman game is commonly invoked as the single most crushing night of Baker's career, but it wasn't nearly as devastating as the disaster that was Game 6 of the 2002 World Series. In his 10th year with the Giants, Baker had stewarded his club - propelled by Barry Bonds, then at the height of his powers - within one win of its first championship since 1954, when the franchise was still based out of New York. And, with a 3-2 series lead on the Angels as the series shifted back to Anaheim, the Giants looked primed to end it in Game 6, carrying a 5-0 lead into the bottom of the seventh. But they couldn't. Felix Rodriguez, whom Baker summoned from the bullpen to relieve starter Russ Ortiz with two on and one out, served up a three-run homer to Scott Spiezio, the first batter he faced, to cut the Angels' deficit to two. Then, in the eighth, the two pillars of the Giants' bullpen faltered: Setup man Tim Worrell allowed a homer to Darin Erstad to lead off the inning, then surrendered consecutive singles - putting the tying run in scoring position - before Baker called for his closer, Robb Nen. He couldn't lock it down, either, though, giving up a go-ahead double to the first batter he faced, eventual World Series MVP Troy Glaus. The Giants went down in order against Troy Percival in the top of the ninth. They went on to lose 4-1 in Game 7.</p><figure class="article-segment--embed"><iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dCyniWW5H5E" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen=""></iframe></figure><p><em>Jonah Birenbaum is theScore's senior MLB writer. He steams a good ham. You can find him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/birenball">@birenball</a>.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/15631905/related

Where do Altuve's yips rank among Dusty Baker's many October disasters?

Dave Roberts was trending on Twitter on Monday night. Rarely is that an auspicious sign for a big...

<p>Dave Roberts was <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%22Dave%20Roberts%22&amp;src=trend_click&amp;vertical=trends">trending</a> on Twitter on Monday night. Rarely is that an auspicious sign for a big-league manager.</p><p>And, sure enough, the social media consensus was that Roberts, the longtime Los Angeles Dodgers skipper whose tactical maneuvering has raised eyebrows in postseasons past, erred again Monday during the National League Championship Series opener, pushing the wrong buttons en route to a demoralizing 5-1 loss to the Atlanta Braves that was keyed by a horrid ninth inning from Los Angeles' bullpen.</p><p>As shocking as it may sound, however, the online derision directed at Roberts was misplaced.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>It was entirely defensible for Roberts to call upon Blake Treinen with the game knotted at 1-1 heading into the top of the ninth, even with Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman due up second and third, respectively, for Atlanta. Brusdar Graterol had already pitched, and so had Dustin May. And going to Kenley Jansen was a nonstarter given his recent woes. </p><p>Sure, Roberts could've stuck with rookie Victor Gonzalez, who inherited a bases-loaded, two-out jam the inning prior and promptly extinguished the fire with a strikeout of Charlie Culberson. But the three-batter rule would've forced Gonzalez, a left-hander, to face the right-handed-hitting Acuna. Besides, Treinen had been excellent all year, posting a 3.86 ERA (which belied his 3.15 FIP) and finishing tied for third among Dodgers relievers in <a style="background-color: rgb(247, 247, 247);" href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=rel&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=8&amp;season=2020&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2020&amp;ind=0&amp;team=22&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;startdate=2020-01-01&amp;enddate=2020-12-31">WAR</a>.</p><p>But on this night he wasn't excellent. Treinen, who surrendered only one regular-season home run and had yet to allow a run through his first four playoff outings, put the Dodgers in a hole <em>before</em> even getting to the good hitters, serving up a leadoff dinger to Atlanta's No. 9 hitter Austin Riley on a misplaced 97.9-mph sinker. Only one of the scuffling sophomore's eight regular-season long balls came off a fastball.</p><p>Things kept unraveling from there for Los Angeles. Acuna followed with a double off Treinen. Then, after a deep flyout from Freeman moved Acuna up to third, Marcell Ozuna laced a single to right field to extend the Braves' lead to 3-1. At that point, Roberts relieved Treinen, but Jake McGee, the resurgent left-hander who was arguably Los Angeles' top bullpen arm this season, didn't fare much better, serving up a two-out, two-run homer to Ozzie Albies to effectively seal the Dodgers' fate.</p><p>And as the Dodgers stumbled to their first loss this postseason, the blame was placed disproportionately on Roberts, or so it <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=roberts%20bullpen&amp;src=typed_query">seemed</a> in certain corners of the internet. Unlike in the not-too-distant past, however, Roberts didn't deserve to be scapegoated. (The only move that truly warranted second-guessing was going to McGee to stop the bleeding considering Albies' success against left-handers, though McGee actually fared better against opposite-handed hitters in 2020.) Roberts didn't squander a potential Game 1 win with his faulty or short-sighted bullpen management. Instead, the result was a sobering dose of reality for the Dodgers, who are easily the best team of the four remaining, but whose postseason to this point had been decidedly charmed.</p><p>The Braves aren't the Milwaukee Brewers, a losing team with an anemic offense that had no business playing in the postseason, nor are they the decimated San Diego Padres, a club without its two best starters available for the league division series. </p><p>Rather, the Braves are a legitimate powerhouse - and a mostly healthy one, at that, Adam Duvall's injury notwithstanding - that cruised to a third straight division title in 2020. And, like the Dodgers, they didn't lose a game during the postseason's first two rounds, though Atlanta's path to the NLCS wasn't the most fraught, either. In any event, the Dodgers' margin for error is considerably slimmer against the Braves than it was against their previous opponents, especially with Clayton Kershaw’s availability for the series suddenly in doubt: The venerated left-hander was scratched from his scheduled Game 2 start Tuesday morning due to back spasms. Ultimately, to beat Atlanta, the Dodgers will need to be at their best or close to it, and they weren't in Game 1.</p><p>It wasn't just Treinen and McGee (or Walker Buehler, for that matter, who allowed eight baserunners, including five walks, over five-plus innings and escaped with a respectable line only thanks to Graterol). Left-hander Max Fried stymied the Dodgers' vaunted offense, with the unit eking out just one run on four hits - while fanning nine times - in six innings.</p><p>The Dodgers were even more helpless against the Braves' late-inning triumvirate of Chris Martin, Will Smith, and Mark Melancon, who didn't allow a baserunner over the game's final three frames. Los Angeles was held to one run in a game only twice during the <a href="https://stathead.com/baseball/game_finder.cgi?request=1&amp;match=basic&amp;order_by_asc=0&amp;order_by=HR&amp;series=any&amp;series_game=any&amp;min_year_game=2020&amp;max_year_game=2020&amp;as=team_batting&amp;class=team&amp;offset=0&amp;type=b&amp;number_matched=1&amp;ccomp%5B1%5D=lt&amp;cval%5B1%5D=1&amp;cstat%5B1%5D=tgl_stats.RS&amp;team_id=LAD&amp;opp_id=ANY&amp;game_length=any&amp;HV=any&amp;temperature_min=0&amp;temperature_max=120&amp;wind_speed_min=0&amp;wind_speed_max=90">regular season</a>, and the Dodgers were limited to fewer than four hits just five <a href="https://stathead.com/baseball/game_finder.cgi?request=1&amp;match=basic&amp;order_by_asc=0&amp;order_by=HR&amp;series=any&amp;series_game=any&amp;min_year_game=2020&amp;max_year_game=2020&amp;as=team_batting&amp;class=team&amp;offset=0&amp;type=b&amp;number_matched=1&amp;ccomp%5B2%5D=lt&amp;cval%5B2%5D=4&amp;cstat%5B2%5D=H&amp;team_id=LAD&amp;opp_id=ANY&amp;game_length=any&amp;HV=any&amp;temperature_min=0&amp;temperature_max=120&amp;wind_speed_min=0&amp;wind_speed_max=90">times</a>. And it's not like they were continually scorching the ball and just getting unlucky: Los Angeles' hitters accounted for only three of the game's 11 hardest-hit balls, two of which were ripped into the ground, according to Baseball Savant.</p><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/422597/Screen_Shot_2020-10-13_at_2.12.46_AM.jpg?ts=1602569680" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/422597/Screen_Shot_2020-10-13_at_2.12.46_AM.jpg?ts=1602569680 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/422597/Screen_Shot_2020-10-13_at_2.12.46_AM.jpg?ts=1602569680 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/422597/Screen_Shot_2020-10-13_at_2.12.46_AM.jpg?ts=1602569680 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/422597/Screen_Shot_2020-10-13_at_2.12.46_AM.jpg?ts=1602569680 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/422597/Screen_Shot_2020-10-13_at_2.12.46_AM.jpg?ts=1602569680 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> <span class="article-segment--image-attribution"></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Dodgers' offense didn't show up, and two very good relievers faltered late. That's not the manager's fault. Rather, for the first time this postseason, the Dodgers were simply outplayed, and their Game 1 loss reaffirmed just how different the Braves are from their previous two opponents.</p><p>Unlike the Brewers and Padres, the Braves can actually beat them.</p><p><em>Jonah Birenbaum is theScore's senior MLB writer. He steams a good ham. You can find him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/birenball">@birenball</a>.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/15623716/related

Dodgers get reality check with Game 1 loss

The best-of-seven American League Championship Series got underway Sunday night at Petco Park, wh...

<p><em>The best-of-seven American League Championship Series got underway Sunday night at Petco Park, where the Tampa Bay Rays - as per usual - parlayed a masterful performance from their vaunted pitching staff into a 2-1 victory over the Houston Astros. Here are a few takeaways from a tightly contested series opener:</em></p><h3><strong>Valdez keeps shoving</strong></h3><p>Last October, when the yet-to-be reviled Astros navigated their way within inches of a second World Series title in a three-year span, Framber Valdez was a complete non-factor. In fact, Valdez, an erratic left-hander who stumbled to a 5.86 ERA over eight starts and another 18 relief appearances during the regular season, didn't even crack Houston's playoff roster.</p><p>What difference a year makes.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p><em>This</em> October, in the wake of a profoundly transformative year during which the Astros lost Gerrit Cole to free agency and Justin Verlander to a torn ulnar collateral ligament (plus, you know, that whole sign-stealing thing), Valdez isn't merely an important part of the Astros' pitching staff. Rather, the 26-year-old is suddenly Houston's ace, an emergent star who played an outsized role in propelling his club through the first two rounds of the postseason and did everything in his power to nudge the Astros to an early lead in their best-of-seven showdown with Tampa Bay. (Alas, his offense didn't cooperate.)</p><p>In Game 1, Valdez held the Rays to just two runs on four hits and four walks while fanning eight over six innings, and he wouldn't have been saddled with the loss were it not for some bad BABIP luck: Mike Zunino's go-ahead, two-out single in the fifth came off his bat at just 83.4 mph. Amazingly, Valdez's six innings of two-run ball represent his <em>worst</em> outing of the postseason thus far; he pitched five innings of scoreless relief in Game 1 of the wild-card round against the Minnesota Twins and held the Oakland Athletics to two runs over seven innings in Game 2 of the division series.</p><p>In total, Valdez owns a 2.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through 18 playoff innings, and his newfound status as Houston's de facto top starter represents the culmination of the most unlikely evolution.</p><p>Valdez didn't throw his first professional pitch until he was 21, which is practically ancient by international signee standards. And though he showed considerable promise in the minor leagues, including the dastardly curveball and bowling-ball sinker that were on full display Sunday night, Valdez was plagued by a wildness that - combined with his age - prevented him from ever earning top-prospect status.</p><p>That wildness followed him to the majors. As a late-season call-up in 2018, Valdez issued a whopping 24 walks in 34 innings with the Astros, marring the 2.19 ERA he fashioned in his first go-around. His inability to throw strikes soon caught up to him. In 2019, Valdez was essentially replacement-level in a swingman role with Houston due to his control issues - his walk rate of 13.4% was the second-worst among pitchers with <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=pit&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=70&amp;type=1&amp;season=2019&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2019&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;startdate=2019-01-01&amp;enddate=2019-12-31&amp;sort=8,d">at least 70 innings</a> - and newfound home run problem.</p><p>A year later, however, he looks like an entirely different pitcher. First and foremost, Valdez is throwing strikes with far more consistency, having increased his zone rate by nearly 3% (52.5) from last year's (49.9). As such, he's obviously walking way fewer hitters - Valdez went from 5.6 walks per nine innings a year ago to just 2.0 in 2020. And by working himself into favorable counts more frequently, he's also been able to expand the zone more effectively, particularly with his elite-spin-rate curveball: his chase rate (26.5%) also jumped nearly 3% year-over-year, and his strikeout rate in 2020 (25.9%) trumped those of Zack Wheeler, Jose Berrios, and National League Cy Young contender Max Fried.</p><p>Valdez also made another critical adjustment, though. In 2019, he had little success throwing his four-seam fastball. Opponents hit .392 off of it. They slugged .549 against it. It was a cookie of the most delicious variety, truly one of the most hittable pitches in baseball, yet Valdez threw his four-seamer nearly once out of every five pitches.</p><p><strong><a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;stadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=&amp;hfGT=R%7C&amp;hfC=&amp;hfSea=2019%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=pitcher&amp;hfOuts=&amp;opponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=&amp;game_date_lt=&amp;hfInfield=&amp;team=&amp;position=&amp;hfOutfield=&amp;hfRO=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfFlag=&amp;hfPull=&amp;metric_1=&amp;hfInn=&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=200&amp;group_by=pitch-type&amp;sort_col=woba&amp;player_event_sort=api_h_launch_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;min_pas=0&amp;chk_stats_abs=on&amp;chk_stats_hits=on&amp;chk_stats_woba=on#results">Highest wOBA by individual pitch type, 2019</a></strong></p><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Player</th>
<th>Pitch Type</th>
<th>wOBA</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Jhoulys Chacin</td>
<td>4-Seam Fastball</td>
<td>.590</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Wade LeBlanc</td>
<td>Curveball</td>
<td>.535</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mike Leake</td>
<td>Sinker</td>
<td>.517</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Edwin Jackson</td>
<td>Cutter</td>
<td>.515</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Michael Wacha</td>
<td>Curveball</td>
<td>.514</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Chris Archer</td>
<td>2-Seam Fastball</td>
<td>.504</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Kyle Freeland</td>
<td>Changeup</td>
<td>.502</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mike Montgomery</td>
<td>4-Seam Fastball</td>
<td>.485</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Luis Garcia</td>
<td>4-Seam Fastball</td>
<td>.478</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Martin Perez</td>
<td>4-Seam Fastball</td>
<td>.478</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Drew Smyly</td>
<td>Cutter</td>
<td>.474</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Luis Garcia</td>
<td>2-Seam Fastball</td>
<td>.471</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jeff Hoffman</td>
<td>4-Seam Fastball</td>
<td>.470</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nick Pivetta</td>
<td>4-Seam Fastball</td>
<td>.460</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Felix Hernandez</td>
<td>Sinker</td>
<td>.457</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Chris Bassitt</td>
<td>Cutter</td>
<td>.456</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Framber Valdez</strong></td>
<td>4-Seam Fastball</td>
<td>.453</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p><em>(Note: To qualify, pitchers had to throw their worst pitch a minimum of 200 times, and at least 1,000 total pitches over the course of the season.)</em></p><p>So, Valdez made a change: He just stopped throwing it.</p><p>In 2020, Valdez, who started the entire season save for one early-summer bulk relief appearance, all but scrapped his four-seamer, throwing it only a handful of times each game and relying instead on the sinker that hitters have a much harder time squaring up.</p><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/422486/Screen_Shot_2020-10-12_at_12.48.09_AM.jpg?ts=1602478358" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/422486/Screen_Shot_2020-10-12_at_12.48.09_AM.jpg?ts=1602478358 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/422486/Screen_Shot_2020-10-12_at_12.48.09_AM.jpg?ts=1602478358 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/422486/Screen_Shot_2020-10-12_at_12.48.09_AM.jpg?ts=1602478358 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/422486/Screen_Shot_2020-10-12_at_12.48.09_AM.jpg?ts=1602478358 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/422486/Screen_Shot_2020-10-12_at_12.48.09_AM.jpg?ts=1602478358 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> <span class="article-segment--image-attribution"></span></figcaption></figure><p>The results have been staggering. Valdez posted a lower <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=pitcher&amp;year=2020&amp;position=&amp;team=&amp;min=150">barrel rate</a> in 2020 than Clayton Kershaw and managed a lower expected weighted on-base average than Blake Snell, who tossed five solid innings of his own in Game 1. The surface stats - a 3.57 ERA and 2.85 FIP across 70 2/3 regular-season innings - speak for themselves. And, ultimately, in a season so trying for the Astros in so many ways, Valdez's emergence was an unqualified bright spot.</p><p>His transformation has been integral to Houston's postseason run, as well, and if the Astros end up falling short of their third pennant in the last four years, it won't be because of Valdez.</p><h3><strong>Cash makes curious call</strong></h3><p>Tampa Bay Rays manager Kevin Cash is often lauded for his bullpen-managing prowess, and deservedly so, but that doesn't mean every decision he makes is beyond reproach. On Sunday night, with his club clinging to a one-run lead in the eighth, Cash made a downright puzzling call. It nearly cost Tampa Bay the lead, too.</p><p>The entire "stable full of guys (who) throw 98 mph," as Cash put it earlier this year, was rested after getting the day off Saturday - only John Curtiss and Ryan Thompson pitched in relief to that point in the game - yet Cash decided to entrust the top of the eighth to left-hander Aaron Loup, which was questionable for several reasons. For one, Loup hadn't pitched in nearly two weeks, with his last appearance coming in Game 2 of the wild-card round. Secondly, Loup struggles against right-handed hitters, and the Astros had two imposing righties - Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa - due up after leadoff man Michael Brantley. And, finally, due to the three-batter rule, Loup would have to face all three of those guys regardless, even if things immediately went haywire, which they did.</p><p>Loup hit Brantley in the leg with the first pitch he threw. Then, after striking out Bregman, Loup walked Correa (after first uncorking a wild pitch) to put runners on first and second. Cash could've yanked him at that point but instead chose to leave him in to face the left-handed-hitting Kyle Tucker. He singled, scalding a ball into left field at <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?game_pk=635917&amp;game_date=2020-10-11">108 mph</a>, to load the bases for Yuli Gurriel. At that point, with the game <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?date=2020-10-11&amp;team=Rays&amp;dh=0&amp;season=2020">essentially on the line</a> and another right-hander up, Cash had seen enough. Only by virtue of Diego Castillo's almost-unrivaled nastiness did the Rays escape the inning with their lead still intact.</p><p>To be sure, Loup had a solid regular season with Tampa Bay and remains a fine option against left-handed hitters, but that so clearly wasn't the spot to use him, especially after such a long layoff. And for a manager who puts such an emphasis on optimizing matchups, and whose team's success is so predicated on putting players in a position to succeed, the gaffe feels particularly noteworthy. Luckily, it didn't cost him.</p><h3><strong>No more heaters for Arozarena</strong></h3><p>Randy Arozarena may not, in fact, be the greatest baseball player who ever lived, but so long as he keeps hitting like <em>this</em>, the Astros would be wise to feed him a steady diet of breaking balls.</p><p>Arozarena, who's inexplicably carried Tampa Bay's offense so far this postseason with a mind-boggling .419/.471/.935 slash line through eight contests, delivered yet another big hit in Game 1 with a fourth-inning solo shot off Valdez. Like most of the damage he's done throughout the playoffs, it came against a fastball.</p><p>In fact, three of the four homers Arozarena has hit <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=FF%7CFT%7CFC%7CSI%7C&amp;hfAB=home%5C.%5C.run%7C&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;stadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=&amp;hfGT=PO%7C&amp;hfC=&amp;hfSea=2020%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=batter&amp;hfOuts=&amp;opponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=&amp;game_date_lt=&amp;hfInfield=&amp;team=&amp;position=&amp;hfOutfield=&amp;hfRO=&amp;home_road=&amp;batters_lookup%5B%5D=668227&amp;hfFlag=&amp;hfPull=&amp;metric_1=&amp;hfInn=&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;group_by=name&amp;sort_col=woba&amp;player_event_sort=api_h_launch_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;min_pas=0&amp;chk_stats_abs=on&amp;chk_stats_hits=on&amp;chk_stats_woba=on#results">this postseason</a> have come off fastballs: a 96.4-mph four-seamer from Gerrit Cole, a 93.7-mph four-seamer from Deivi Garcia, and a Valdez sinker at 92.7 mph. And throughout his brief major-league career, Arozarena has generally had much more success against velocity than anything soft and/or spinning.</p><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th>wOBA</th>
<th>xSLG</th>
<th>xwOBA</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Fastballs</td>
<td>.525</td>
<td>.668</td>
<td>.444</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Offspeed</td>
<td>.289</td>
<td>.251</td>
<td>.238</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Breaking balls</td>
<td>.217</td>
<td>.207</td>
<td>.197</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p>To their credit, the Astros' staff did give Arozarena more breaking balls than fastballs in the series opener, and only four of those heaters were in the strike zone, but he <em>still</em> managed to make them pay. Ultimately, if Arozarena gets a fastball in the zone right now, there's a good chance it's not coming back. He's as locked in as a hitter can be, and the Astros need to stop playing to his strengths, even if that means working around him with offspeed stuff.</p><p><em>Jonah Birenbaum is theScore's senior MLB writer. He steams a good ham. You can find him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/birenball">@birenball</a>.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/15615402/related

Valdez shines again in loss, Cash lives to regret questionable call

After experiencing the elusive thrill of a close game Wednesday at Globe Life Field, the plainly ...

<p>After experiencing the elusive thrill of a close game Wednesday at Globe Life Field, the plainly invincible Los Angeles Dodgers seemed to go out of their way the following evening in Game 3 to contrive a challenge for themselves. </p><p>Up 2-0 in their best-of-five showdown with the San Diego Padres, with two immensely talented starters - Tony Gonsolin and Julio Urias - fully rested, the Dodgers really didn't need to use an "opener" to negotiate their way through the first couple of innings. They did, though, and did so both ineffectively and inelegantly: left-handed reliever Adam Kolarek, tasked with handling the second inning after Dustin May tossed a scoreless first, ended up walking in a run - following an inexplicable intentional free pass - before serving up a bases-loaded single and being lifted for Urias. It was an ugly sequence of events, as well as an unbecoming one, and the Dodgers' curious gambit gave the Padres an early 2-1 lead.</p><p>Still, the Dodgers ended up winning by nine runs, completing the three-game sweep and securing a spot in the National League Championship Series for the fourth time in the last five seasons. The Dodgers have yet to lose a game this postseason. They have yet to even look vulnerable.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>It isn't revisionism to say the Padres had no chance against the Dodgers, nor is it an indictment against them. Though they managed to outlast the St. Louis Cardinals in the wild-card round with their two best pitchers unavailable, providing their long-suffering fanbase a taste of catharsis, the Padres were never going to be able to beat the Dodgers absent de facto ace Dinelson Lamet and with their nominal ace, Mike Clevinger, still compromised, as well. (Clevinger lasted only one-plus inning in Game 1, throwing 24 pitches before leaving the contest with renewed discomfort in his right arm.) Even were they at full strength, however, the Padres likely would've been overmatched.</p><p>To be sure, the Padres are a marvelous team, an <em>exciting</em> team for which the truncated 2020 season marked the beginning of a new epoch. After a veritable eternity of losing, which eventually morphed into rebuilding, the Padres were actually good this year: led by the incomparable Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and a bevy of other young studs, the Padres finished in the top five in the majors in just about every meaningful statistic during the regular season. By run differential, moreover, they were baseball's second-best team this year, and few franchises can claim to have a future as bright.</p><p>Still, as dynastic as they look, and as commendable as general manager A.J. Preller's efforts at the trade deadline were, the talent gap between them and Los Angeles remains stark: the Dodgers bested them (and everyone else) in pretty much every area, leading the majors in runs per game, homers, and WRC+ (despite getting subpar production from Max Muncy and reigning National League MVP Cody Bellinger), as well as ERA, WHIP, and runs allowed per game. Ultimately, to dispatch their vaunted division rival in the best-of-five LDS, the Padres needed all of their key players healthy, first and foremost, and needed to play their best baseball. Neither of those things happened.</p><p>Forgetting, for a moment, the injuries to Clevinger and Lamet, the Padres' potent lineup did bupkis all series, getting held to a paltry .182/.264./283<strong> </strong><a href="https://www.mlb.com/padres/stats/team/division-series">line</a> by Los Angeles' obnoxiously deep staff while going just 2-for-15 (.133) with <a href="https://www.mlb.com/padres/stats/team/division-series?split=risp">runners in scoring position</a>. (Yes, they did have a potentially game-changing home run <a href="https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1314241619449741315">stolen away by Bellinger</a> in Game 2.)</p><p>Meanwhile, they also made too many mistakes in the field, most notably a <a href="https://twitter.com/PubSportsRadio/status/1313694351877382152">critical misplay</a> by second baseman Jake Cronenworth and/or first baseman Eric Hosmer in the fifth inning of Game 1 that allowed the Dodgers to erase a one-run deficit. Then, in the third inning of Game 3, an ill-advised throw from Tatis after a sensational diving stab - along with a poor effort from Hosmer on the receiving end at first - keyed a five-run onslaught for the Dodgers.</p><p>Whether those two miscues were ultimately instrumental in the sweep, however, is debatable seeing as the Padres - absent their top two arms - simply couldn't contain Los Angeles' mighty offense: the Dodgers hit just one home run in the series, which took place in baseball's most long-ball-suppressing stadium, but they wore down San Diego's staff with relentlessly high-quality plate appearances, posting a remarkable .409 on-base percentage for the series and drawing nearly as many walks (20) as they had strikeouts (22).</p><p>In total, the Dodgers outscored the Padres 23-9 and have, at least for now, quieted any talk of an impending coup in the NL West. As resounding as the three-game sweep was, however, it didn't diminish the Padres' superb season one iota. Or at least it <em>shouldn't</em>. There's simply no shame in losing to these Dodgers, who seemingly need to hamstring themselves right now to feel the rush of competition.</p><p>The Atlanta Braves will present a far greater challenge than did the decimated Padres or the lowly Milwaukee Brewers, who finished the regular season with a sub-.500 record. Like the Dodgers, the Braves remain undefeated this postseason, and they're only appreciably worse than Los Angeles in one area: starting pitching depth. That disparity may actually factor heavily into a best-of-seven series with no rest days, but the Braves are nevertheless a more formidable opponent than the Dodgers have seen this postseason.</p><p>Ultimately, though, even as their toughest matchup looms and with their recent October track record discrediting them, it's impossible not to have the utmost faith in the Dodgers. Since the <a href="https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1940904">moment</a> they acquired Mookie Betts in February, they've seemed destined to snap their World Series drought in 2020, and the effortlessness with which they've navigated October thus far has made it seem only more inevitable.</p><p><em>Jonah Birenbaum is theScore's senior MLB writer. He steams a good ham. You can find him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/birenball">@birenball</a>.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/15576698/related

Of course the Padres couldn't stop the Dodgers. Can anyone?

A glut of stars, both established and burgeoning, propelled the Atlanta Braves to a third straigh...

<p>A glut of stars, both established and burgeoning, propelled the Atlanta Braves to a third straight National League East title in 2020. </p><p>Freddie Freeman, a four-time All-Star and the franchise's longtime linchpin, will likely take home the National League MVP for his otherworldly performance throughout the truncated season.<strong> </strong>Ronald Acuña Jr., the effervescent 22-year-old who nearly went 40/40 last year, posted the highest OPS and wRC+ of his nascent career. Ditto for Marcell Ozuna, the once-scuffling All-Star who transformed into one of baseball's most dangerous hitters after acquiescing last winter and accepting a one-year, rebuild-your-value deal with Atlanta.</p><p>Meanwhile, after flashing top-of-the-rotation potential over the previous three years, left-hander Max Fried realized it in 2020 while finishing fifth in the NL in ERA and ninth in FIP. And over only a half-dozen regular-season starts, rookie right-hander Ian Anderson - summoned from the alternate training site just ahead of the trade deadline - cemented himself as a cornerstone of the Braves' future.</p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><p>With all that going on, it was easy to overlook the outsized contributions of Travis d'Arnaud, who landed a modest two-year deal with the Braves in November following a modest resurgence in 2019. He quietly ranked among the game's most valuable <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=8&amp;season=2020&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2020&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;startdate=2020-01-01&amp;enddate=2020-12-31">catchers</a> in 2020 after a remarkable offensive turnaround.</p><p>He can't be ignored any longer, though.</p><p>Throughout the Braves' thus-far perfect postseason, in which they've swept the Cincinnati Reds in the wild-card round then did the same to the Miami Marlins in the league division series, no player has shined more brightly than d'Arnaud. </p><p>While Atlanta's mighty offense has actually been rather quiet so far, with a couple of terrific pitching staffs stymieing it to the tune of a .708 OPS, d'Arnaud has steadfastly refused to get out. He's been delivering one big hit after another, and ultimately dispelling suspicion that his mammoth regular season - in which, by wRC+ (145), he <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=140&amp;type=8&amp;season=2020&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2020&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;startdate=2020-01-01&amp;enddate=2020-12-31&amp;sort=17,d&amp;page=2_30">outhit</a> the likes of Eloy Jimenez, Justin Turner, and Rhys Hoskins - was a small-sample fluke.</p><p>Most recently, in his club's decisive Game 3 victory over Miami on Thursday, d'Arnaud collected a pair of hits (while also drawing a walk), including a two-run double off a 95-mph fastball from rookie phenom Sixto Sanchez that was practically at eye level. </p><p>A day earlier, d'Arnaud nearly earned himself a citation for noise from the city of Houston for the ringing solo <a href="https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1313923001159741441?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1313923001159741441%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mlb.com%2Fnews%2Ftravis-d-arnaud-home-run-sound">shot</a> he cranked off Pablo Lopez at Minute Maid Park during a 2-0 victory, his second homer in as many days. In Game 1, d'Arnaud smoked a three-run dong in the bottom of the seventh to break a 4-4 tie and cap a three-hit, two-walk performance.</p><p>Through five playoff games, d'Arnaud - who's started behind the plate and hit cleanup in every contest so far - is rocking a .421/.500/.842<strong> </strong>line with four extra-base hits and seven RBIs, more than every player this postseason except Giancarlo Stanton, Carlos Correa, and Chad Pinder. And while October has the power to elevate schlubs into heroes, d'Arnaud's postseason onslaught is distinct from the ephemeral glory of, say, David Eckstein, the famously punchless shortstop who took home World Series MVP honors in 2006 after hitting .364 with an .891 OPS. Unlike Eckstein's run, d'Arnaud's monster October<em> isn't </em>out of nowhere.</p><p>After puttering along as essentially a league-average hitter through the first <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/darnatr01.shtml#2013-2019-sum:batting_standard">seven</a> seasons of his mostly disappointing and injury-plagued big-league career, d'Arnaud morphed into a hard-contact machine in 2020 following his move to the Braves. Without even meaningfully <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/players/travis-darnaud/7739/stats?position=C#plate-discipline">altering</a> his approach (beyond jumping on the first pitch more often), d'Arnaud upped his average exit velocity into Mike Trout <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=batter&amp;year=2020&amp;position=&amp;team=&amp;min=q&amp;sort=6&amp;sortDir=desc">territory</a>, nearly doubled his career "barrel" rate, and stopped popping up almost altogether.</p><figure class="article-segment--table"><div class="table-responsive"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th>2019</th>
<th>2020</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Average exit velocity (MPH)</td>
<td>90</td>
<td>93.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Hard-hit rate</td>
<td>39.7%</td>
<td>57.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Barrel rate</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
<td>11.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Popup rate</td>
<td>18.1%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Expected wOBA</td>
<td>.338</td>
<td>.370</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div></figure><p>To be sure, an inflated batting average on balls in play (.411) factored into his breakout season, but the changes in d'Arnaud's batted-ball profile are still real and spectacular, and he's continued to scald the ball this postseason. Of the 14 balls d'Arnaud put in play against the Reds and Marlins, six registered a triple-digit exit velocity, according to <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;stadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=&amp;hfGT=PO%7C&amp;hfC=&amp;hfSea=2020%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=batter&amp;hfOuts=&amp;opponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=2020-09-29&amp;game_date_lt=2020-10-07&amp;hfInfield=&amp;team=&amp;position=&amp;hfOutfield=&amp;hfRO=&amp;home_road=&amp;batters_lookup%5B%5D=518595&amp;hfFlag=&amp;hfPull=&amp;metric_1=&amp;metric_1_gt=106&amp;metric_1_lt=&amp;hfInn=&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;group_by=name-event&amp;sort_col=pitches&amp;player_event_sort=api_h_launch_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;min_pas=0&amp;chk_event_launch_speed=on#results">Baseball Savant</a>, and five came off his bat at 106.2 mph or faster. The only players to hit that threshold as many <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;stadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=&amp;hfGT=PO%7C&amp;hfC=&amp;hfSea=2020%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=batter&amp;hfOuts=&amp;opponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=2020-09-29&amp;game_date_lt=2020-10-07&amp;hfInfield=&amp;team=&amp;position=&amp;hfOutfield=&amp;hfRO=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfFlag=&amp;hfPull=&amp;metric_1=api_h_launch_speed&amp;metric_1_gt=106&amp;metric_1_lt=&amp;hfInn=&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;group_by=name&amp;sort_col=pitches&amp;player_event_sort=api_h_launch_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;min_pas=0#results">times</a> this postseason are Stanton, the undisputed exit-velocity king, and Manny Machado.</p><p>D'Arnaud inarguably played a bigger role than any other Braves position player in nudging the club to its first National League Championship Series berth since 2001, and the veteran's ongoing tear is the pinnacle of a season that's completely changed the narrative of his career. Until a few months ago, d'Arnaud was a bust, and a chronic disappointment who would never be healthy enough to realize the potential that compelled the Philadelphia Phillies to take him 37th overall in the 2007 draft. He was so frustrating that the New York Mets, of all teams, opted to release him last spring.</p><p>Since then, however, the 31-year-old has done more than merely stay on the field. He's blossomed into the kind of impact talent that evaluators once envisioned, actualizing the offensive ceiling that made him such a highly touted - and highly coveted - prospect all those years ago. D'Arnaud was traded twice before making his big-league debut, coming over to Toronto in 2009 as part of the Roy Halladay trade, then getting shipped to New York along with Noah Syndergaard three years later for R.A. Dickey.</p><p>Now, d'Arnaud is an integral part of an elite team with an elite lineup that suddenly sits eight wins away from its first championship in two-and-a-half decades. His performance in the NLDS wasn't an anomaly so much as a coming-out party. And if some of d'Arnaud's more celebrated teammates, like Freeman, Ozzie Albies, and Nick Markakis, start performing up to their capabilities moving forward, the Braves could be doing a lot more partying before the year is out.</p><p><em>Jonah Birenbaum is theScore's senior MLB writer. He steams a good ham. You can find him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/birenball">@birenball</a>.</em></p>

https://rich-content.thescore.com/content_cards/15573862/related

Travis d'Arnaud can't stop hitting

Another busy day of postseason baseball is in the books. Here are a few takeaways from Wednesday'...

<p><em>Another busy day of postseason baseball is in the books. Here are a few takeaways from Wednesday's slate of league division series games.</em></p><h3>Borderline pitch brings Yankees to brink</h3><p>Baseball, the old truism goes, is a game of inches. An inch can be the margin between safe and out, and can distinguish a broken-bat bleeder from a blast into the bleachers. Games are frequently decided by a matter of inches. Sometimes, apparently, playoff series can be, too.</p><p>In the top of the fourth inning Wednesday at Petco Park, with the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees tied at one game apiece in their best-of-five series and knotted at 1-1 in Game 3, Masahiro Tanaka worked the count full against Willy Adames with Joey Wendle on first and nobody out. Tanaka, as he routinely does in <a href="http://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;stadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=&amp;hfGT=R%7C&amp;hfC=&amp;hfSea=2020%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=pitcher&amp;hfOuts=&amp;opponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=&amp;game_date_lt=&amp;hfInfield=&amp;team=&amp;position=&amp;hfOutfield=&amp;hfRO=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfFlag=&amp;hfPull=&amp;pitchers_lookup%5B%5D=547888&amp;metric_1=&amp;hfInn=&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;group_by=name&amp;sort_col=pitches&amp;player_event_sort=api_h_launch_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;min_pas=0#results">3-2 counts</a>, went to his slider, and caught Adames looking. He didn't get the call, though. In an attempt to gun down Wendle, who broke for second on the pitch, Yankees catcher Kyle Higashioka leapt out of his crouch without giving home-plate umpire Mark Carlson a good look at the pitch, which, according to Baseball Savant, clipped the bottom of the strike zone. </p><div class="the-score-article-ad-unit"></div><figure class="article-segment--image"><img src="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/421811/Screen_Shot_2020-10-07_at_8.41.25_PM.jpg?ts=1602117745" srcset="https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/421811/Screen_Shot_2020-10-07_at_8.41.25_PM.jpg?ts=1602117745 220w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/421811/Screen_Shot_2020-10-07_at_8.41.25_PM.jpg?ts=1602117745 320w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/421811/Screen_Shot_2020-10-07_at_8.41.25_PM.jpg?ts=1602117745 640w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/421811/Screen_Shot_2020-10-07_at_8.41.25_PM.jpg?ts=1602117745 768w, https://assets-cms.thescore.com/uploads/image/file/421811/Screen_Shot_2020-10-07_at_8.41.25_PM.jpg?ts=1602117745 1080w"><figcaption class="article-segment--image-caption"> <span class="article-segment--image-attribution"></span></figcaption></figure><p>Were that pitch an inch or two higher, Tanaka almost certainly gets the call, and the Yankees quash Tampa Bay's rally: Higashioka, for his part, uncorked a strong throw to second that likely would've resulted in a strike-'em-out, throw-'em-out double play. Instead, Kevin Kiermaier came to the plate with two on and nobody out, and changed the complexion of the game - and the series - with one swing, depositing a hanging curveball into the right field bleachers for a <a href="https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1314000658043940864">three-run home run</a>. To be sure, no lead is ever truly <em>safe</em> against this Yankees lineup, but Kiemaier's blast still rendered a comeback highly improbable, increasing Tampa Bay's win expectancy to 80.4%, per <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/liveplays.aspx?date=2020-10-07&amp;team=Yankees&amp;dh=0&amp;season=2020">FanGraphs</a>, before a three-run sixth inning put the game out of reach and propelled the Rays to an 8-4 victory and 2-1 series lead.</p><p>And while the Yankees are far from finished, the circumstances of their Game 3 loss illustrate<strong> </strong>how volatile a best-of-five series is. One borderline pitch could end up playing an outsized role in determining their fate. After dropping Tuesday's game, the Yankees took the field for Game 3 with roughly a <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/post-season-zips?&amp;series=ALDS1">50/50 chance</a> of advancing to the league championship series. Now, needing to take two straight from the American League's top team, their odds have <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/post-season-zips?&amp;series=ALDS1">dwindled</a> to about one-in-five.</p><h3>Ground Chuck is back</h3><p>Charlie Morton's regular season was a frustrating one. After finishing third in American League Cy Young voting in 2019, the 36-year-old right-hander came out of the gate looking uncharacteristically hittable, stumbling to a 5.40 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP across his first four starts in 2020 amid a marked decline in velocity. A trip to the injured list ensued, and Morton spent nearly four weeks resting his inflamed right shoulder.</p><p>However, since rejoining the rotation in early September, Morton's velocity has steadily increased, and his resurgence culminated Wednesday with a strong outing against the Yankees in which he reaffirmed his status as one of Tampa Bay's three co-aces. Making his first appearance in almost two weeks, Morton, who wasn't needed in the wild-card round, showed off his best velocity of 2020, sitting at 94.6 mph with his sinker, his primary pitch, and topping out at 96.7 mph with his four-seamer, per <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?game_pk=635899&amp;game_date=2020-10-7&amp;type=away_pitchers&amp;chart_view=pitch&amp;chart_type=pitch_name&amp;inning=&amp;count=&amp;batter_hand=&amp;pitcher_hand=&amp;filter=&amp;player=home-pitchers_547888&amp;view=Umpire&amp;coloring=Pitch%20Type">Baseball Savant</a>. Of course, velocity isn't everything, but it is pretty significant. When Morton's sinker registered <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=SI%7C&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;stadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=&amp;hfGT=R%7C&amp;hfC=&amp;hfSea=2020%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=pitcher&amp;hfOuts=&amp;opponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=&amp;game_date_lt=&amp;hfInfield=&amp;team=&amp;position=&amp;hfOutfield=&amp;hfRO=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfFlag=&amp;hfPull=&amp;pitchers_lookup%5B%5D=450203&amp;metric_1=api_p_release_speed&amp;metric_1_gt=0&amp;metric_1_lt=93&amp;hfInn=&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;group_by=name&amp;sort_col=woba&amp;player_event_sort=api_h_launch_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;min_pas=0&amp;chk_stats_abs=on&amp;chk_stats_hits=on&amp;chk_stats_woba=on#results">93 mph or lower</a> on the radar gun this year, opponents put up a weighted on-base average of .577 against it. On sinkers clocked at <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=SI%7C&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;stadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=&amp;hfGT=R%7C&amp;hfC=&amp;hfSea=2020%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=pitcher&amp;hfOuts=&amp;opponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=&amp;game_date_lt=&amp;hfInfield=&amp;team=&amp;position=&amp;hfOutfield=&amp;hfRO=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfFlag=&amp;hfPull=&amp;pitchers_lookup%5B%5D=450203&amp;metric_1=api_p_release_speed&amp;metric_1_gt=94&amp;metric_1_lt=&amp;hfInn=&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;group_by=name&amp;sort_col=woba&amp;player_event_sort=api_h_launch_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;min_pas=0&amp;chk_stats_abs=on&amp;chk_stats_hits=on&amp;chk_stats_woba=on#results">94 mph or above</a>, that mark shriveled to .156.</p><p>Not surprisingly, then, with his best stuff working, Morton had one of his best starts of 2020, allowing only one earned run on four hits and two walks while striking out six over five innings. He induced 10 whiffs over 86 pitches (11.6%), an especially impressive number considering the Yankees' <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=5&amp;season=2020&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2020&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0,ts&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;startdate=2020-01-01&amp;enddate=2020-12-31&amp;sort=10,d">supreme contact ability</a>, while generating plenty of weak contact, too: <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?game_pk=635899&amp;game_date=2020-10-7&amp;type=exit_velocity&amp;chart_view=pitch&amp;chart_type=pitch_name&amp;inning=&amp;count=&amp;batter_hand=&amp;pitcher_hand=&amp;filter=&amp;player=home-pitchers_547888&amp;view=Umpire&amp;coloring=Pitch%20Type">eight </a>of the 14 balls put in play against him had an expected batting average of .120 or lower. Meanwhile, Morton has now allowed just one home run in six starts since coming off the injured list, and he continues to look more like the version of himself from a year ago.</p><h3>Dave Roberts shows growth</h3><p>At times, Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has trusted Clayton Kershaw to a fault in October, either leaving him in too long or foisting an unnecessary relief appearance upon his three-time Cy Young Award winner. Too often, that trust has been the Dodgers' undoing (and, to some extent, Roberts bears responsibility for Kershaw's <a data-in-app-uri="thescore:///news/2033110" href="https://www.thescore.com/news/2033110">lousy postseason reputation</a>). If Game 2 was any indication, Roberts has learned from his mistakes.</p><p>In years past, Roberts might've been inclined to leave Kershaw in for the seventh inning Wednesday night rather than go to his bullpen. Though the venerated left-hander allowed successive solo shots in the top of the sixth, sullying a brilliant outing and allowing the Padres to cut their deficit to 4-3, Kershaw promptly locked back in and retired the next three batters. As he walked off the mound, his pitch count sat at 87. Moreover, the Padres' bottom-three hitters were due up in the seventh. Roberts could've justified sending Kershaw back out, at least to start the frame. But he didn't. Instead, Roberts turned to his bullpen, and while Brusdar Graterol <em>nearly</em> made him <a href="http://twitter.com/PitcherList/status/1314042346909118465">regret</a> it moments later, the decision was the right one - and a revelatory one, at that.</p><p>Still, Roberts' most laudable in-game move - the one that seemed to cement his growth in this department - actually came afterward, in the top of the ninth, with the Padres threatening to erase a three-run deficit. In the past, Roberts probably would've stuck with Kenley Jansen, who was decidedly off, even after he brought the tying run to the plate with two outs. This time, Roberts refused to relinquish the lead with a clearly laboring pitcher on the mound, egos be damned, and proceeded to remove Jansen in favor of Joe Kelly, who stranded the tying run at third after walking the bases loaded and ultimately locked down a 6-5 victory. Admittedly, Roberts' confidence in Jansen has been on the wane for a while, but it was still encouraging to see him make the tough - but correct - decision when he had to nonetheless. His Game 2 performance made it abundantly clear Roberts is no longer making decisions based on a player's reputation or his own affections, and that's an incredibly encouraging development for a Dodgers team that is otherwise perfect.</p><h3>Ugh, give us more Dodgers-Padres</h3><p>Major League Baseball's decision not to reseed after the wild-card round never made any sense. The Rays and Dodgers, by virtue of finishing with the best records in their respective leagues, deserved less fraught paths to the league championship series, and it's frankly absurd MLB would approve a postseason format in which the two best teams in each league would be able to meet in the second round of the playoffs, a blink-and-you'll-miss-it best-of-five. All of that is to say: it sucks that the Dodgers-Padres series, which produced the postseason's most compelling and theatrical game Wednesday, could be over by Thursday night. After a relatively placid series opener, the mutual hostility between these two division rivals - the incumbent powerhouse in the NL West and the burgeoning one - was laid bare, as was the crazy talent both teams possess. It's a shame they never even had a chance to meet in the best-of-seven NLCS. Even if the Padres can somehow manage to force a fifth game, which seems downright impossible given their injury woes and the Dodgers' indomitability, this series will still have been too short.</p><p><em>Jonah Birenbaum is theScore's senior MLB writer. He steams a good ham. You can find him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/birenball">@birenball</a>.</em></p>

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Yankees lose game of inches, Roberts shows growth

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