When the tournament's groupings were first announced, Group A was considered to be the strongest group in the preliminary rounds. That still might be the case as Group A included two legitimate gold medal contenders in the United States and Russia - two teams that could well meet in the gold medal game.
But as it turns out the most competitive group, by a long shot, was Group C. Group A and Group B both had a similar composition: two minnows (which was a surprise since much more was expected out of the Slovakian side) and two very good teams. Group C on the other hand had three quality teams in Switzerland, the Czech Republic and Sweden - who finished the preliminary round as the number one seed.
We counted scoring chances for all 16 men's Olympic hockey hockey games, and now we can apply that data to what occurred. Which of Group B's teams are legitimate gold medal contenders and which teams are in trouble going into the elimination round?
Scoring Chances:
A scoring chance is counted any time a team directs a shot cleanly on-net from within the area where the most goals go in - between and below the circles. You can get a handle on what the scoring chance area looks like here. Shots on goal and misses are counted, but blocked shots are not (unless the player who blocks the shot is “acting like a goaltender”). Generally speaking, we are more generous with the boundaries of the scoring chance area if there is dangerous puck movement immediately preceding the scoring chance, or if the scoring chance is screened. Tip shots are only counted if they're obvious sets.
Group C preliminary round results:
Note: SF% refers to "shot for%", while CF% refers to "scoring chances for%." Essentially both stats tabulate all shots or chances for and against and express that ratio as a percentage:
| Team | Pts | GD | SF% | EV CF% | Total CF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 9 | 5 | 52.4% | 50.7% | 56.4% |
| Switzerland | 6 | 1 | 53.8% | 58.3% | 57% |
| Czech Republic | 3 | -1 | 57% | 57.8% | 53.3% |
| Latvia | 0 | -5 | 37.2% | 32.7% | 32.7% |
Sweden was the only team in the preliminary round that managed to win all three of their games in regulation. That 3-0-0 record, however, obscures some pretty serious underlying issues for the Tre Kronor.
Truth be told, without Henrik Zetterberg and Henrik Sedin - both of whom are unable to compete due to injury - Sweden played some permissive defense and struggled to churn games in a favorable direction at even-strength. Injuries have caused Sweden to become enormously reliant on their power-play and goaltending.
That's a formula that would render a top-seed a paper tiger going into a tournament like, say, the National Hockey League playoffs. But in the Olympics, Sweden just needs to win three games in a row to end the tournament with a gold medal. They're certainly capable of that.
They're capable of it because Henrik Lundqvist is very probably the world's best goaltender, and he's been on his game at the tournament so far. Lundqvist started all three of Sweden's games in the preliminary round, posting a .935 save percentage and stopping nearly 88% of the difficult shots he's faced.
Meanwhile the Swedish power-play is far and away the tournament's best so far. Sweden managed five goals on 13 power-play opportunities in the preliminary round for a completely ridiculous 38.46% conversion rate.
Sweden's exceedingly dangerous five-on-four play shows up in our chance data as well. The Tre Kronor recorded a tournament high 23 scoring chances with the man-advantage in Group C action (no one else recorded more than 18). Sweden is generating well over two quality looks per power-play opportunity, and defenseman Erik Karlsson has been outrageously effective directing traffic on the big ice surface.
Sweden will face the winner of Tuesday's qualifying playoff round game between Austria and Slovenia, so they're all but guaranteed to play for a medal. The question for Sweden is whether or not their even-strength play can be good enough not to hurt them, while their goaltending holds the fort and the power-play produces offense...
The upstart Swiss were dynamite in group play, and managed to control their games against both Sweden and the Czech Republic in the preliminary round. Switzerland doesn't have much - or any, if we're being honest - fire power upfront. But what they lack in offensive ability they make up for with team speed, team defense and stellar goaltending.
The Swiss know how to suck the life out of proceedings when they get a lead - just ask the Czech side - and they hung with, and even out-chanced Sweden in a game that was tied until late. Actually Sweden really only beat Switzerland on a flukey goal given up by Reto Berra. Meanwhile Jonas Hiller has yet to be scored on at the tournament.
Switzerland's men's ice hockey team is now good enough that should they beat any team aside from the so called "big four" (Sweden, the USA, Russia, Canada), it's probably time to stop referring to it as an upset. Switzerland can hang, they proved it in the preliminary round.
Beset by player selection issues, shoddy goaltending and internal politics, the Czechs only managed to win one game in Group C action (a 4-2 victory over Latvia). Despite the dysfunction, this Czech side is likely to prove a dangerous opponent in the elimination round. They're probably the second best team among the qualification round teams behind only Russia.
The Czechs have leaned heavily on their top-line of Jaromir Jagr, Roman Cervenka and Tomas Plekanec at this tournament, and on their top-pairing of Tomas Kaberle and Marek Zidlicky. It's actually surprising the extent to which the Czech side have resembled a one-line team. Useful to excellent NHL players like David Krejci, Jakub Voracek, Ales Hemsky, Patrik Elias and Milan Michalek were all but invisible during the preliminary round...
Depth will be critical for the Czechs against a Slovakian team that gets very weak by the time their secondary players hit the ice. For all of their issues thus far, the Czech side should be able to man-handle a Slovakian team that has struggled enormously.
Latvia is one of the tournament's true bunker teams. The Latvians have a surprisingly potent power-play, but at even-strength they bunker in their own end awaiting opportunities to attack against the grain. Meanwhile they interfere with offensive players at every opportunity and are prone to the odd bad hit.
On the scoreboard Latvia hung with all of the teams in Group C in their preliminary round games. But on the shot clock, by our chance data and in terms of controlling the flow of play, the Latvian side was completely wasted by Group C's three better teams.
Latvia will at least prove a spirited opponent in the elimination round, however, and in drawing the offensively challenged Swiss Ted Nolan's team could conceivably manage an upset. Don't bet on it though.
Stick-tap to Cam Charron who provided some initial counts.
