The 2026 NHL Draft Lottery is set for Tuesday night in Secaucus, N.J.
For a full rundown of the event format and the class' top prospects, tap here.
Sixteen teams will be involved in the lottery. However, only 11 are eligible to win the No. 1 pick. Below, we discuss the 11 first-overall contenders by placing them into tiers. (Odds of winning the No. 1 pick are listed in parentheses.)
'Pure chaos' tier
Toronto Maple Leafs (8.5%)
The Maple Leafs are, to put it kindly, a team in transition.
Out of the playoffs for the first time in a decade after a disastrous regular season, Toronto announced a new off-ice leadership team on Sunday. General manager John Chayka and senior executive advisor Mats Sundin are tasked with retooling a middling roster around forwards Auston Matthews and William Nylander, despite having a blah prospect pipeline and limited draft capital. (Good luck!)
The Leafs, based in the Center of the Hockey Universe, are a team rival fans love to hate. If they're awarded the No. 1 pick, social media will be flooded with posts about how the NHL gave a losing, high-revenue franchise a freebie.
Another layer of intrigue: If Toronto picks in the top five of 2026, its 2027 and 2028 firsts automatically transfer to Boston and Philadelphia thanks to reckless deadline-day trading by former GM Brad Treliving.
St. Louis Blues (3%)
The Blues sat 29th in points after 41 games. A strong second half, punctuated by a league-best 16-4-3 record down the stretch, lifted them to 22nd. So: St. Louis was bad enough to be eligible for the No. 1 pick, but has the longest odds.
The club owns three 2026 first-rounders after moving Brayden Schenn and Justin Faulk midseason. Doug Armstrong, the longtime face of the Blues, is handing over the day-to-day GM duties to special assistant Alex Steen in July.
Would the 2026 No. 1 pick alter Steen's plans? Or does he continue to sell veterans? Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Colton Parayko, and Jordan Binnington have all spent ample time in the rumor mill over the past two years.
Florida Panthers (6%)
The Panthers seem to have it all: Three Stanley Cup Final appearances in the past four years (two of which led to Cup parades); a dozen core members locked up on reasonable deals; highly respected management and coaching staffs; sunny weather; minimal media pressure; and income tax advantages.
Florida's in contention for first overall in large part due to injuries brought on by those three arduous playoff runs. Captain Aleksander Barkov missed the whole season, Matthew Tkachuk played only 31 games, Brad Marchand and Seth Jones appeared in 52, and others were shut down in the final month.
Winning the lottery would qualify as a "rich get richer" outcome.
'Must be nice!' tier
Chicago Blackhawks (13.5%) and San Jose Sharks (5%)
Chicago and San Jose tanked and won the draft lotteries in 2023 and 2024, gifting them franchise cornerstone centers Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini, respectively. The Blackhawks then picked second overall in 2024 and third 2025, while the Sharks selected fourth in 2023 and second in 2025.
Translation: Neither team needs another top-five pick (though the Blackhawks are guaranteed to be in the top four after finishing 31st in the standings).
Chicago's been stuck at 30th or 31st for four long seasons. Ownership's apparently OK with the lack of progress, recently announcing a multi-year contract extension for GM Kyle Davidson. He's got work to do this offseason.
Meanwhile, the Sharks were in a playoff spot in early April. Celebrini took a seismic leap as a sophomore and the rest of the core is developing rapidly.
'Starved for superstar' tier
Nashville Predators (3.5%)
Nashville's in the process of hiring a GM. That next leader (ex-Devils executive Tom Fitzgerald?) will inherit a nice collection of young pros, headlined by Matthew Wood, Luke Evangelista, Tanner Molendyk, and Brady Martin.
Add a future superstar to the mix and, boom, the Preds are cooking with gas.
Nashville's a franchise that's prided itself on chasing a playoff spot every year and has thus never held the first pick. In fact, the team has picked in the top five just three times in 28 drafts since joining the league back in 1998 (David Legwand, second, 1998; Seth Jones, fourth, 2013; Martin, fifth, 2025).
Calgary Flames (9.5%)
The Flames have long-term stability between the pipes (Dustin Wolf) and on the first defense pairing (Zayne Parekh). They possess a top-five prospect pool, too. Squint hard enough and you can see Calgary's promising future.
That said, there's uncertainty surrounding next year and beyond, as far as filling lineup spots with quality NHLers and finding needle-moving talents.
Drafting first overall would be a tremendous boost to the rebuilding effort, whether GM Craig Conroy ultimately chooses Gavin McKenna, Ivar Stenberg, or somebody else. The Flames have partaken in every draft since 1980, yet somehow, someway never picked in the top three. Sam Bennett, who went fourth in 2014, stands as the highest pick in team history. They're beyond due.
'Front office lifeline' tier
Vancouver Canucks (25.5%)
The Canucks, who are also in the process of hiring a new GM, officially pivoted to a rebuild with the late-2025 Quinn Hughes trade. The Adam Foote-coached squad was certifiably unwatchable from January onwards, but the futility may be about to pay off. Vancouver has a one-in-four shot at landing the No. 1 pick.
McKenna, the dynamic Penn State winger and consensus top prospect in the 2026 class, has strong ties to British Columbia. While he was born in Canada's Yukon Territory, McKenna spent the last three years of his youth hockey career in B.C. before playing two WHL seasons in nearby Alberta.
The Canucks desperately need an elite forward. We'll see if the hockey gods reward a franchise whose owner is despised by a segment of the fan base.
Winnipeg Jets (6.5%)
Winnipeg has always struggled to recruit free agents and convince players to waive trade protection midseason. That puts an even greater emphasis on the draft process in any given year, but especially at this moment in franchise history.
The Jets went from claiming the Presidents' Trophy last year to finishing 26th out of 32 teams this year, and nobody was overly surprised. Winnipeg relies far too much on the very top of its lineup, and superstar goalie Connor Hellebuyck is among the core pieces frustrated with the team's direction.
Picking first overall could be the launching point for an aggressive retool.
Seattle Kraken (7.5%) and New York Rangers (11.5%)
Seattle and New York have been mismanaged over the past handful of years.
The Kraken have made poor coaching hires while signing too many instantly regrettable contracts. The Rangers have flipped a large chunk of the roster in an effort to go deeper in the playoffs, only to become indisputably worse off.
Neither team truly tanked, which is noble. Yet neither is doing anything exemplary in the drafting and development realms - not the best hockey karma.
You'd be hard-pressed to find someone outside the states of Washington and New York who's genuinely rooting for the Kraken or Rangers to win the lottery.
John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter/X (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email ([email protected]).
