Olympic hockey bubble watch: Cases for, against polarizing fringe players

Following theScore's Olympic hockey roster projections from last week, we're taking a closer look at some of the most polarizing bubble players from Canada and the United States as the Dec. 31 roster submission deadline approaches.

Connor Bedard

Case for: Hyped as a generational talent entering the 2023 draft, Bedard has lived up to that billing in his third NHL season after a pair of so-so years to begin his career. He currently sits sixth in NHL scoring with 40 points in 29 games. While that production is impressive, his drastically improved foot speed (his top skating speed is nearly a full mph faster than a year ago) is what should give him a real shot at cracking a loaded Team Canada. If the squad omits Bedard and fails to win gold, fans will view this as one of the worst decisions made by a Canadian Olympic hockey general manager. No pressure, Doug Armstrong.

Case against: Bedard's defensive game still leaves a lot to be desired. He ranks in the eighth percentile of Evolving-Hockey's defensive rating, a marginal improvement from his first two years. That begs the question about whether head coach Jon Cooper can trust Bedard in a top-six role alongside Connor McDavid or Nathan MacKinnon, where he'll see the best competition from opposing teams. If Cooper lacks that trust, does Bedard fit in the bottom six, where penalty killers and role players might be preferred?

Prediction: Makes the team. Although we've left Bedard off our most recent roster projections, his consistently high level of performance is making it increasingly likely that Armstrong finds a spot for him - whether that's by cutting Mark Stone and/or Seth Jarvis. Bedard deserves a chance to hang as a top-six winger. If that doesn't work, he can be the extra forward or sit in the press box. The upside is too high to pass on.

Sam Bennett

Case for: Big-game players make big-time plays in big-time games. That's all Bennett has done for the last year or so. His selection for the 4 Nations Face-Off raised some eyebrows, but he had a great tournament. He was even better for the Panthers in the playoffs, winning the Conn Smythe Trophy with 15 goals in 23 postseason appearances. Clutch is hard to measure, but Bennett definitely has it. He's tough, gritty, and a proven winner who will have no issue taking a lesser role as a fourth-line checker.

Case against: While Bennett has picked things up a little bit lately, he still hasn't had a great season overall, playing at a 49-point pace. He's also never been a great defensive player, despite his intangibles and physicality. Picking Bennett for his past big-game moments over several players who've significantly outperformed him this season could be a huge mistake.

Prediction: Doesn't make the team. It's easy to see why Canada would want to run it back, but multiple players who weren't at the 4 Nations should have surpassed him on the pecking order by now.

Macklin Celebrini

Case for: Celebrini has done everything in his power to earn a long look from Canada's brass. He trails only MacKinnon and McDavid in the Art Ross race with 43 points, establishing himself as a legitimate MVP candidate for single-handedly vaulting the rebuilding Sharks into the Western Conference playoff race. Celebrini's offensive excellence comes on a team that ranks 32nd in five-on-five expected goals, and it's enticing to imagine what he could do alongside Team Canada's cast of stars. Perhaps most importantly for Celebrini's case, he had a strong showing for Canada at the world championship in May, earning high praise from Sidney Crosby. It's hard to argue there's any better person to have in your corner.

Case against: Similarly to Bedard, questions persist about where Celebrini can slot into Canada's lineup. With no shortage of centers, Celebrini would likely have to move to the wing. He also doesn't kill penalties or have any big-game experience at the professional level. The 19-year-old is definitely skilled enough to represent Canada, but can he be trusted defensively? Although Celebrini has made positive strides in that department as a sophomore, there's no margin for error on a stage as big as the Olympics.

Prediction: Makes the team. Even if it's as an extra forward, Celebrini's earned a spot. His two-way play has improved, and his game-breaking talent should outweigh his age in the evaluation process.

Tom Wilson

Case for: Wilson's on pace for a career year offensively with 32 points in 30 games this season. He's also reliable defensively and can kill penalties. With Bennett off to a slow start, Wilson is a strong candidate to fill the same role Bennett played at the 4 Nations Face-Off. There's no denying Wilson is difficult to play against, and he has Stanley Cup pedigree to boot. Canada is short on power forwards, and it's hard to argue there's a more effective option than Wilson at the moment.

Case against: Wilson has earned his reputation of being one of the NHL's most polarizing players. His blend of skill and physicality is rare, but he's been suspended six times in his career - usually for dangerous hits. Under IIHF officiating, Wilson will have an incredibly short disciplinary leash. Should he make the team and take a costly penalty, or even a suspension, Canadian fans are likely to be outraged at his selection.

Prediction: Makes the team. Canada knows taking Wilson will be a risk, but role players are necessary for success at international tournaments. If Wilson stays out of trouble, he'll make a positive impact all over the ice.

Cole Caufield

Case for: Caufield is a game-breaking talent. He scored 37 goals last season and is on pace for over 45 this year. He also has a knack for scoring in big spots, as he's the Montreal Canadiens' all-time leader in overtime winners. While the United States boasts a ton of talent, crunch-time scoring has often been its downfall at best-on-best tournaments. Taking someone who's routinely answered the bell in those spots would be wise.

Case against: Listed at 5-foot-8 and 175 pounds, Caufield is small. He's also not a great defensive player and doesn't contribute much if he's not scoring. Team USA general manager Bill Guerin made some questionable roster decisions for the 4 Nations Face-Off, but omitting Caufield was understandable considering how one-dimensional he is.

Prediction: Doesn't make the team. Losing the 4 Nations by one goal isn't going to change Guerin's team-building philosophy. Plus, the U.S. has several other players who can produce similar levels of offense to Caufield but are bigger and contribute in other ways, such as Matthew Knies and Cutter Gauthier.

Clayton Keller

Case for: Team USA notably snubbed Keller from the 4 Nations roster, a decision that was amplified after he finished the 2024-25 campaign with a career-high 90 points. He's a shifty playmaker who could work great alongside one of America's snipers while also contributing to a power-play unit. Over the past three seasons, Keller ranks ninth among all players with 77 points on the man advantage.

Case against: Keller's production is down from last season, and he doesn't have the defensive prowess to be a shoo-in. He's not going to bump Jack Eichel or Auston Matthews down the depth chart and doesn't necessarily fit the mold of a bottom-six center.

Prediction: Doesn't make the team. The USA has too many stronger options up front to find a spot for Keller. If he were having a more productive year offensively, it would be much tougher to pass on him.

J.T. Miller

Case for: Miller is extremely versatile, capable of playing center or wing on a scoring or checking line. He's also a veteran leader on what projects to be a young roster compared to Team Canada. Miller is amid a down season, but he's just two years removed from a 103-point campaign.

Case against: At 32 years old, Miller has clearly lost a step, as he's on pace for a measly 51 points. His underlying numbers aren't great, either. Selecting him would be the exact type of mistake the U.S. has made in past best-on-best tournaments, such as taking Brock Nelson for the 4 Nations.

Prediction: Makes the team. Both Guerin and head coach Mike Sullivan will value Miller's leadership. Sullivan, of course, is Miller's coach with the New York Rangers, and he gave him the captaincy this season for a reason.

Jason Robertson

Case for: Robertson admitted that his desire to represent his country at the 4 Nations Face-Off was a distraction during his early struggles last season, and he's responded impressively to being left off the roster. Since the tournament ended in late February, Robertson ranks fourth across the NHL with 34 goals and sixth with 68 points in 58 games. He's on pace for 103 points this season and is defensively responsible enough to be trusted on any line.

Case against: The Americans are incredibly deep at left wing. Brady Tkachuk, Jack Hughes, and Matt Boldy - who plays for Guerin in Minnesota - all slotted ahead of Robertson in our latest roster projection. Does Team USA envision Robertson filling a fourth-line role?

Prediction: Makes the team. With veterans like Nelson and Chris Kreider - both of whom made the 4 Nations squad - likely out of the picture this time around, there's certainly room for Robertson. He's tied for third in the NHL with 19 goals this season, and it would make little sense for the USA to omit the hot hand with so much pressure riding on this tournament.