Who can challenge for Olympic gold? Ranking projected European rosters

More from this series:

• Canada 🇨🇦
• United States 🇺🇸
• European teams 🇪🇺

With Russia banned from international competition, Canada and the U.S. are the consensus favorites to claim gold at the 2026 Olympics. Which European countries can challenge them? Below we rank the participating nations from most to least likely to medal in the Feb. 11-22 tournament held in Milan, Italy.

(Note: The 12-team men's hockey field splits into three groups. The top two teams from each group advance to the quarterfinals, and the remaining two spots are determined by a qualifying round. A knockout stage then ensues.)

Sweden 🇸🇪

If there's one country that can go toe to toe with Canada and the U.S., it's Sweden, which has the requisite depth and high-end talent (most notably on the wings, led by Nylander) to win gold if things break its way.

The biggest development for Sweden two months into the NHL season is the emergence of Carlsson as an elite top-line center. The third-year Ducks pivot knocks Pettersson, Eriksson Ek, and Zibanejad into more appropriate roles down the lineup and generally beefs up a somewhat weak area on the roster.

The backbone of Team Sweden, as always, will be its blue line. The super experienced group has a healthy variety of offensive game-breakers (Dahlin, Hedman, Karlsson) and stay-at-home defenders known for slowing down the most dangerous players on the planet (Forsling, Ekholm, Brodin).

Goaltending is a minor concern with Markstrom struggling in the early going. We penciled him in as the No. 1 guy for now. Wallstedt, who has a .944 save percentage through 10 games, could begin the tournament as the starter if he stays hot.

Finland 🇫🇮

The Finns' gold-medal chances were dealt a significant blow in September when the country's best player, center Aleksander Barkov, suffered a major knee injury. The Panthers captain is sidelined at least until late April.

Finland will still ice an intriguing forward group. The incredibly clutch Rantanen is its bona fide superstar, and each of the top three lines features multiple impactful two-way contributors. However, the fourth-liners and extras don't stack up well against depth pieces on Sweden, Canada, and the U.S.

As for the defense corps, well, it drops off a cliff after Heiskanen, who'll likely log 30 minutes a game in Italy. Finland may go only as far as its goaltending takes it. How does Saros fare after a disappointing two games at the 4 Nations Face-Off? Or is it Lankinen who'll be tasked with saving the day?

Czechia 🇨🇿

The Czechs boast legitimate firepower up front with Pastrnak and Necas. Multiple goalies are capable of getting hot enough to steal games against the tournament's powerhouses. That's a recipe for a Cinderella run all right, but they'll have to overcome concerns on the blue line - specifically the left side.

Czechia won gold at the 2024 World Championship with several players from this projected roster, including the 40-year-old Cervenka - a Czech league legend who's shown great chemistry with Pastrnak on the international stage.

Germany 🇩🇪

Germany is a rising power in men's hockey, having produced a few world-class players over the past decade and won a silver medal at the 2023 Worlds.

Coach Harold Kreis will lean heavily on his NHL contingent, which includes one megastar (Draisaitl), two young studs (Stutzle, Seider), one burgeoning talent (Peterka), and three less impactful pieces (Reichel, Sturm, Grubauer).

Germany's in Group C with the U.S., Denmark, and Latvia. It has enough juice to finish second behind the Americans and thus earn a quarterfinal berth.

Switzerland 🇨🇭

With an NHL-caliber top six up front and top four on the back end, Switzerland is much deeper than Germany on paper. The list above doesn't even include ex-NHL forwards Denis Malgin and Sven Andrighetto or veteran goalie Leonardo Genoni, all three of whom are national team stalwarts.

However, Switzerland's path to medaling could be significantly more difficult than Germany's because Group A also features Canada, Czechia, and France. Its Feb. 15 matchup against Czechia will be particularly huge for both teams.

Slovakia 🇸🇰

Slovakia fell off as a tertiary hockey power in the 2010s. But it's relevant again following a bronze medal at the 2022 Olympics (caveat: no NHL participation) and the selection of five players in the first rounds of the 2022 and 2023 drafts.

That core, led by Slafkovsky and Nemec, should blossom into a feisty squad by the 2030 Olympics. This time around, the Slovaks are the third-best team in Group B (Sweden, Finland, Italy) and thus fighting hard for a quarterfinal spot.

Denmark 🇩🇰

It's safe to say Andersen will have to be at his very best between the pipes for the Danes to make any sort of noise. That hasn't been the case for the 36-year-old this season in the NHL, but his body of work over a 13-year career suggests that stealing a game or two isn't beyond the realm of possibility, especially in Group C, which includes fellow underdogs Germany and Latvia.

Latvia 🇱🇻

Latvia doesn't have an NHL top-six forward, top-four defenseman, or reliable starting goalie. What it does have: a history of pulling off upsets at marquee tournaments. Canadians, in particular, can recall demoralizing losses to the plucky Latvians at the 2021 Worlds and 2025 world juniors.

Italy 🇮🇹

Italy will be the only nation in the tournament without a player who's suited up for an NHL game this season. The Italians project to be led by promising goalie Damian Clara, a 2023 second-round pick by the Ducks who's currently playing in Sweden. If the raw, 6-foot-6 20-year-old can put it all together for a brief stretch with the energy of the home crowd behind him, maybe Italy can eke out a win against Slovakia, its most gettable opponent in Group B.

France 🇫🇷

France is battling two extreme forces: its own dearth of talent and very tough competition in Group A. One standings point would be cause for celebration.