Oilers-Panthers tale of the tape: Who has the edge in Cup Final rematch?

The Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers are set to meet in the first Stanley Cup Final rematch since the Detroit Red Wings and Pittsburgh Penguins faced each other in both 2008 and 2009. The Panthers got the better of the Oilers in a dramatic seven-game series a year ago, but who has the edge entering Volume 2? We break that down, position by position, below.

Forwards

The Oilers enter the finals with the top three scorers still standing in McDavid (26 points), Draisaitl (25), and Nugent-Hopkins (19). Edmonton also leads the playoffs by averaging 4.06 goals per game. Even with Zach Hyman unavailable, the Oilers offer an incredibly balanced attack that features 19 different goal scorers this postseason and seven healthy skaters with at least five tallies to their credit.

The Panthers don't have the offensive firepower the Oilers do, but they're still remarkably balanced. Florida, too, has 19 goal scorers so far and is getting key contributions from its top three lines. Bennett leads the playoffs with 10 goals, and 10 Panthers have hit double-digit points this spring compared to seven Oilers. The Cats also boast one of the most clutch scorers in the league in Verhaeghe.

While both teams have a deep arsenal of weapons, it's difficult to bet against McDavid and Draisaitl. They're the two best forwards in the series and have revenge on their minds. Florida was able to neutralize McDavid in a few games last year, but he still had 11 points in the series and has only been held off the scoresheet twice so far this postseason.

Advantage: Oilers

Defense

Edmonton's blue line was a weakness at times during the regular season, but it's been a strength in the playoffs - even without Ekholm until Game 5 of the Western Conference Final. Ekholm's return slots Kulak in a more fitting spot on the second pairing. Walman and Klingberg - both midseason acquisitions - have been pleasant surprises as the third pair, sporting a 56.7% expected goals share together at five-on-five this postseason.

Getting Jones midseason has given the Panthers arguably the best top-four defensive core in the league. Jones, Ekblad, and Mikkola are all at least 6-foot-4, while Forsling is a world-class skater and defender. The veteran third pair of Kulikov and Schmidt isn't flashy, but it's defensively reliable.

While no defenseman on Florida can match Bouchard's offensive ability - he has 17 points in 16 games in these playoffs - we're giving the Panthers the nod here. There are simply fewer weaknesses and question marks on their back end. It's fair to wonder how long it will take Ekholm to get up to speed for Edmonton (he logged just 15:52 in his return to the lineup), and whether a Nurse-led second pair can hold up against Florida's balanced offensive attack.

Advantage: Panthers

Goaltending

Goaltending is the least debatable position in this series. That doesn't mean it would be overly shocking if Skinner outplayed Bobrovsky in the Cup Final, but giving Edmonton the edge would be downright bold.

Skinner's volatility makes him more difficult to trust. He's been lights out in six wins this postseason, registering a .967 save percentage. But he's been a pumpkin in his four losses, sporting an .816 save percentage. He was pulled in favor of Pickard following back-to-back losses to begin the playoffs. Pickard went 6-0 before he was hurt, albeit with an .888 save percentage.

The Panthers, meanwhile, have started Bobrovsky for all 17 games this postseason. He's been stellar with a .912 save percentage, a 2.11 goals-against average, and three shutouts. Plus, there's something comforting about having a virtually guaranteed future Hall of Famer between the pipes.

Advantage: Panthers

Coaching

Both Paul Maurice and Kris Knoblauch have led their teams back to the Stanley Cup Final in impressive fashion. It's easy to say Maurice has the advantage in this department since he won the matchup last year, but this season's story requires more context.

Knoblauch's pulled all the right strings since the Oilers fell into a 2-0 hole against the Los Angeles Kings in Round 1, and the club has only lost two games despite having to change goalies on multiple occasions. Every team Edmonton has eliminated went into the playoffs seeded higher in the standings, but the Oilers are dominating opponents at five-on-five this spring with a 54.42% expected goals rate and 61.76% goal share.

Maurice is the standard-bearer among NHL coaches after winning three consecutive conference titles. No team has bought into their system more, and the Panthers somehow look better every season despite playing more hockey than any other team over the last few years. Since falling behind 2-0 to the Toronto Maple Leafs in Round 2, Florida is 8-2 and has outscored opponents 40-18. Maurice's system - hard forechecks and active defense - frequently overwhelms opponents, but the Oilers know that from last year. It'll be fascinating to see what adjustments are made.

Advantage: To be determined

(Analytics source: Natural Stat Trick)