Running analysis of Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs
During the opening round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, theScore's hockey writers are sharing observations on the frenzied action around the NHL. Check back daily for new analysis on key players and battles, statistical quirks and trends, and storylines to watch.
Sunday, April 20
Leafs-Senators forward combos
Max Domi enters his first Battle of Ontario as the Maple Leafs' second-line left-winger. He beat out such candidates as Bobby McMann, the younger, larger, purer finisher who bagged 20 goals to Domi's eight and will be asked to juice a defensively inclined bottom six. Toronto iced Domi with William Nylander and John Tavares for 58 minutes at five-on-five this season. They outscored opponents 3-0 together despite being caved in with a 26.5% expected goals percentage, per Natural Stat Trick.
Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux flank Tim Stutzle on the Senators' top line. That trio won't be set in stone. Though he produced just five points in 20 games, deadline acquisition Fabian Zetterlund created chances and havoc as Stutzle's occasional linemate. He could be elevated from the fourth line to provide speed and dogged forechecking, while Giroux will take big faceoffs and play on special teams even if his minutes diminish at even strength. - Nick Faris
Compelling goalie duels
Shooters upstaged Jordan Binnington and Connor Hellebuyck in the Blues-Jets series opener. The goalies' combined save percentage in Winnipeg's 5-3 win was .833. Hellebuyck drew scrutiny for being deep in the blue paint - his preferred positioning to maximize lateral movement - which left room for Jordan Kyrou, Oskar Sundqvist, and Robert Thomas to beat him over the shoulder with absolute rips.
Game 1 starkly contrasted their clash in the tight 4 Nations Face-Off final when Hellebuyck was characteristically solid, and the victorious Binnington stood on his head. Whoever steals a game in the coming days will shorten or prolong this series. Binnington faces slightly more pressure to deliver.
Other interesting goalie battles get underway soon.
Anthony Stolarz vs. Linus Ullmark: Ottawa's masked man, Ullmark, is aiming to improve his spotty playoff record (.887 save percentage, six losses in nine starts). Toronto's go-to guy, Stolarz, boasts 35 minutes of career postseason experience and received a 2024 Stanley Cup ring for his modest effort. Stolarz made 38 stops, while Ullmark produced a 27-save shutout in their first of two head-to-head matchups this season.
Adin Hill vs. Filip Gustavsson: Hill was an overlooked fourth-stringer who climbed the depth chart due to injuries and proceeded to backstop the Golden Knights to their 2023 championship breakthrough. Gustavsson sparkled with five shutouts and a .914 save rate in 2024-25, his first season as the Wild's clear-cut, undisputed starter. Vegas has a deep, vastly superior forward corps that Gustavsson needs to stifle.
Logan Thompson vs. Sam Montembeault: Dominant for much of the campaign, Thompson cooled significantly in the Capitals' crease (.877 SV% since Feb. 1) right after he signed a lucrative extension and missed the last few weeks with an upper-body injury. Montembeault's .902 denial rate looks pretty good given that Montreal's leaky defense allowed the third-most dangerous chances (13 per game) around the NHL, per Natural Stat Trick.
Darcy Kuemper vs. Stuart Skinner: By the numbers, this is a glaring mismatch. Kuemper's been excellent (.922 SV%, ranked fourth in Evolving-Hockey's goals saved above expected metric) for the defensive juggernaut Kings. Only one playoff goalie - Montembeault - endured more "really bad starts" (SV% below .850) than Skinner, who had 12 in 50 starts for the Oilers. That said, Skinner's already knocked off Los Angeles in two postseasons.
Andrei Vasilevskiy vs. Sergei Bobrovsky: Early Battles of Florida and showdowns between these Russian countrymen favored Vasilevskiy. The Lightning legend rocked a .950 cumulative save percentage when his club ousted the Panthers in 2021 and 2022. Bobrovsky put up some stinkers during Florida's '24 Cup run but was nearly unbeatable in elimination games against Tampa Bay and other vanquished opponents. - Nick Faris
Colorado loves blowouts
No team blitzes a talented playoff opponent with the same pitiless frequency as the Colorado Avalanche. Game 1 against the Dallas Stars was the latest example.
The Stars killed an early 5-on-3, held Colorado scoreless for almost 30 minutes, pulled within a goal in the third period, and genuinely liked their effort. But they lost 5-1 and got scored on via an inadvertent kick, a deflected knuckler, a pinching defenseman's tip-in, and a nifty passing sequence immediately following an empty-netter. Nathan MacKinnon recorded his 13th career three-point playoff game (and first since May 2022).
Since starting its playoff streak in 2018, Colorado has paced the NHL in convincing wins by at least three goals (26 over 11 different postseason opponents), per Stathead. Saturday's blowout - the Avalanche's 14th win by four or more in the span - was one of their most efficient offensive performances, with five goals on a mere 24 shots.
Their largest playoff triumph, a 7-0 spanking of the dynastic Tampa Bay Lightning, came in Game 2 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final. Mikko Rantanen dished three primary assists for the Avs on that electric night in Denver. It must have been disorienting for Rantanen, the Stars' huge trade acquisition, to be on the other side of the bombardment. - Nick Faris
Squads on a roll
The NHL's best teams since the 4 Nations Face-Off break were the St. Louis Blues (.788 points percentage), Toronto Maple Leafs (.741), and Vegas Golden Knights (.731). The rebuilding Montreal Canadiens (.692) snuck into the playoffs ahead of schedule by catching fire over the past two months.
The league's top scorer in the span was Blues playmaker Robert Thomas (eight goals, 40 points in 26 games). The individual tear that fueled the Habs came courtesy of Nick Suzuki (15 goals, 37 points). Their heroic efforts turned around a pair of scuffling teams that paused for the 4 Nations with identical 25-26-5 records. On a personal level, these 25-year-old top centers are crushing their auditions for Canada's 2026 Olympic lineup.
As the eighth seed in each conference, St. Louis and Montreal hope their recent results lead to deep, stirring runs. The Blues startled the Winnipeg Jets' penalty kill in Saturday's playoff opener with symmetrical snipes from Thomas and Jordan Kyrou to the top corners. But they stopped generating offense, fizzled in the third period, and fell behind in the series.
Some scorching squads win multiple rounds on the strength of the momentum they build in March and April. The 2024 New York Rangers and Dallas Stars, the '23 Stars and Golden Knights, and the '22 Colorado Avalanche all tallied points percentages above .700 from Feb. 22 onward. Those Rangers and Stars teams were conference finalists. Vegas and Colorado hoisted the Cup.
There are limits to a great finish's predictive power. The hottest team in each of the past three stretch runs lost as an underdog in Round 1 (2024 Nashville Predators), suffered a historic first-round upset ('23 Boston Bruins), and was humbled and swept in the Battle of Florida ('22 Panthers). Can Thomas help St. Louis buck the trend? - Nick Faris
International standouts
The other big hockey thing happening Sunday is the final of the IIHF Women's World Championship in Czechia. Canada - the defending champion - faces the archrival United States for gold for the 23rd time in 24 editions of the tournament.
NHL fans went wild in February for the ferocious 4 Nations Face-Off. The best-on-best showcase in Montreal and Boston, where Canada clinched gold in overtime, springboarded some players to newfound prominence.
Ottawa Senators captain Brady Tkachuk and young No. 1 defenseman Jake Sanderson scored for the U.S. in the tense, gripping final. Tkachuk, an animal with his blend of physicality and finishing (three goals at the tournament), is one of a few breakout stars around the league seeking a taste of playoff glory. He's about to debut in the postseason after 512 NHL games, exactly as many as Thomas Chabot logged during Ottawa's extensive drought.
Many of the 4 Nations' top scorers were established superstars such as Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Jack Eichel. Matt Boldy, who supported the American big guns with a tipped goal and two assists, is an example of a young player who could ride that momentum to greater heights. His sophomore Minnesota Wild teammate Brock Faber played shutdown defense at the event.
Jake Guentzel - a point-per-game forward at the 4 Nations and throughout a decorated playoff career - has a chance to tilt the Battle of Florida as a newcomer to the Tampa Bay Lightning. And the talented but maligned Mitch Marner, who set up McDavid's triumphant snipe in Boston, will need to be clutch again for the Toronto Maple Leafs to finally win an elimination game. - Nick Faris
This Gretzky record is safe
The defining storyline of the regular season was Alex Ovechkin's pursuit of the all-time goals record held for decades by Wayne Gretzky. The chase spellbound viewers, and Ovi rewrote history with his 895th career snipe at the beginning of April against the New York Islanders.
Fans might be less aware of Ovechkin's standing on the playoff career leaderboard. He has 72 goals in 151 games over 15 postseason appearances with the Washington Capitals. Ovechkin is dominant and durable, but he won't threaten Gretzky's benchmark of 122 goals in 208 playoff outings.
Ovechkin is tied for 15th in career playoff tallies. He assumed the lead among active players when Joe Pavelski (74 goals) retired last summer. With a big individual showing over a deep Capitals run, The Great 8 could become the 10th NHL star to reach 80 goals.
Generational icons headline the current top 10, shown below. The list features postseason mainstays like Glenn Anderson and Claude Lemieux, whose longevity and clutch efforts - both bagged at least 17 game-winners in the playoffs, not far back of Gretzky's 24 - helped them climb the ranks.
Wayne Gretzky (122 goals), Mark Messier (109), Jari Kurri (106), Brett Hull (103), Glenn Anderson (93), Mike Bossy (85), Joe Sakic (84), Maurice Richard (82), Claude Lemieux (80), Jean Beliveau (79)
The active leaders as of Sunday are:
Alex Ovechkin (72), Sidney Crosby (71), Evgeni Malkin (67), Brad Marchand (56), Corey Perry (54), Patrick Kane (53), Nikita Kucherov (53), Ondrej Palat (51), Steven Stamkos (50), Vladimir Tarasenko (49)
Washington's first-round clash with the Montreal Canadiens starts Monday at 7 p.m. ET. - Nick Faris