Buy, sell, or sit? Choosing deadline directions for fringe playoff teams

The NHL trade deadline is less than two weeks away, and several general managers have decisions to make about the direction they want to take their respective clubs. There are obvious buyers at the top of the standings and clear sellers near the bottom. But what about the cluster of teams in between?

Some clubs, including the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators, have been hot of late, but the chances of either team being a buyer remains next to none, so we omitted them from this exercise. Below, we dive into how the seven other fringe playoff teams should approach the March 3 deadline.

Buffalo Sabres

Standings: Tied for 5th in Atlantic (out of playoffs by 3 points)
Playoff chances: 42%

Surely, there's a segment of the Sabres' fan base begging GM Kevyn Adams to buy. After all, Buffalo's amid the longest playoff drought in NHL history.

However, the front office doesn't share the same enthusiasm for making a huge playoff push for the sake of ending an 11-year dry spell. Adams has said multiple times the Sabres "can't hit the fast-forward button" as they try to build a sustainable winner. It's all gone according to plan thus far, as the on-ice product has greatly improved and core pieces have inked extensions.

In other words, the Stanley Cup-contending timeline with a roster revolving around Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, Dylan Cozens, Alex Tuch, and Mattias Samuelsson doesn't align with being a buyer in 2022-23.

(Key caveat: If the right player with term on his contract is available at a fair price, Adams should consider pivoting. With three 2023 second-round picks and a handful of A- and B-level prospects in his back pocket, Adams could conceivably straddle the line by bringing in talent while keeping his firsts.)

Don't expect Buffalo to be a big-time seller, either. Pending unrestricted free agents Kyle Okposo and Zemgus Girgensons are cherished veteran forwards, and the club's other UFAs - goalie Craig Anderson, forward Vinnie Hinostroza, and defenseman Lawrence Pilut - are unlikely to fetch much of a return.

Verdict: Sit

Calgary Flames

Standings: 5th in Pacific (tied for second wild card in West)
Playoff chances: 83.5%

The Flames' bold moves this past offseason give them a brief window to compete for the Cup. Nazem Kadri is 32, while Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar are both 29. With an average team age of 28.5, they're among the most grizzled in the league.

Calgary was viewed as a legitimate Cup contender entering the campaign, but instead, the Flames are fighting for their playoff lives. The underlying numbers are strong, though, as they're a top-five team in five-on-five expected goals share, according to Natural Stat Trick, yet they've been unlucky, ranking in the bottom five in PDO (shooting percentage plus save percentage).

The Flames are a heavy team - the type that's better suited for playoff hockey. If 2022 Vezina Trophy runner-up Jacob Markstrom can find his game down the stretch - a big if - Calgary could be very dangerous come playoff time.

Calgary also needs to get Huberdeau going (Saturday's two-assist effort is a fantastic start). He's in the middle of his least productive season on a per-game basis since 2014-15. Adding a scoring winger who could mesh with the silky playmaker should be GM Brad Treliving's top priority.

Verdict: Buy

Florida Panthers

Standings: 4th in Atlantic (out of the playoffs by 1 point)
Playoff chances: 39.4%

The Panthers have been ultra-aggressive on the trade market dating back to the 2021 offseason, surrendering a total of four first-round picks in exchange for Sam Reinhart, Claude Giroux, Ben Chiarot, and Matthew Tkachuk. They're not scheduled to pick again in Round 1 until at least 2026.

Despite those moves, their chances of making the playoffs this season are still in question. And even if they grab a wild-card spot, they'll get smoked in the first round by either the Carolina Hurricanes or Boston Bruins. They simply don't have the proper mix of defensemen or a tight enough defensive structure to compete with either team in a seven-game series.

The Panthers have some money opening up next season. Patric Hornqvist's contract expires, Scott Darling's buyout finally comes off the books, and Keith Yandle's dead cap hit lowers from $5.4 million to $1.2 million. In other words, 2022-23 is not the year for the Panthers to go for it. Maybe 2023-24?

Radko Gudas is Florida's only pending UFA who could fetch something on the trade market. It's worth trying to extend him to a modest deal given the state of the blue line, but if a deal can't be reached, GM Bill Zito should trade him to the highest bidder and set his sights on 2023-24.

Verdict: Sell Gudas if you can't extend him

Minnesota Wild

Standings: 4th in Central (tied for second wild card in West)
Playoff chances: 66.4%

The Wild are in a precarious position. They're on track to make the playoffs, but, realistically, they're a long shot to win the Cup. Sure, anything can happen in the postseason - teams go on miracle runs here and there. But the Wild likely won't be a serious threat until the Ryan Suter and Zach Parise buyouts become manageable in 2025-26.

There's one player the Wild definitely need to sell: Matt Dumba. It's become apparent the longtime blue-liner won't return to Minnesota after his contract expires this summer. Dumba is just 28, yet he's not the player he used to be and was even a healthy scratch earlier this season. That said, as a right-handed defenseman with top-four experience, the Wild would likely get a decent return for him at the deadline.

Instead of going for the usual package of draft picks and prospects for a rental player, the Wild could try and get a young, controllable player who could help them this season and moving forward. It's difficult to do but not impossible. The Senators accomplished this last year when they received Mathieu Joseph and a fourth-rounder in exchange for Nick Paul.

In that scenario, the Wild would still get something for Dumba but wouldn't be completely throwing in the towel on the season. And GM Bill Guerin knows how important that is to the players in the dressing room.

Verdict: Sell, but don't wave the white flag

Nashville Predators

Standings: 5th in Central (out of playoffs by 5 points)
Playoff chances: 13.9%

GM David Poile said earlier this week that he doesn't think the Predators will be buyers at the deadline. In the same interview with a Nashville radio station, the franchise's first and only GM couldn't commit to being a seller.

Why the trepidation? Five points out of the playoffs in mid-February isn't where Poile expected to be prior to the season considering the age of the Predators' core and the length of their contracts. Let's face it, Nashville is the definition of a mushy-middle team (not good enough to challenge for a Cup and not bad enough to bottom out) until the roster undergoes major surgery.

The cap sheet is a disaster, with $51.6 million tied up in seven players until at least 2025. Of those seven, only two are gems: Roman Josi and Juuse Saros. The other five - Filip Forsberg, Matt Duchene, Ryan Johansen, Ryan McDonagh, and Mattias Ekholm - are underachieving, overpaid, or injured.

From a sellable-asset perspective, it's dire. Backup goalie Kevin Lankinen and depth forward Mark Jankowski are Poile's only healthy pending UFAs. Still, Poile could get spicy and flip a player or two with term - maybe Duchene or Mikael Granlund up front or Ekholm and Dante Fabbro on the back end.

Verdict: Sell

New York Islanders

Standings: Tied for 5th in Metro (in playoffs as second wild card in East)
Playoff chances: 21.0%

The Islanders are in an awkward spot.

They've already shopped, acquiring Bo Horvat a month before the deadline then promptly signing the forward to an eight-year extension. Presumably, GM Lou Lamoriello would love to double down and add again. The reality of the situation, though, is things could go really south, really quickly on Long Island.

The 28-24-7 Isles, who've lost four of their past five games and 14 of 20 since Jan. 5, are facing only playoff teams over the next two weeks (Pittsburgh, Winnipeg twice, Los Angeles, Minnesota) and a few teams around them in the East standings (Pittsburgh, Washington, Buffalo) have games in hand.

So it appears the Isles will remain just inside or just outside the playoff cutline as the calendar flips to March. By then, the options will probably be sell or sit, and since this clearly isn't their year in a stacked Metro, it would be smart to sell. Goalie Semyon Varlamov and defenseman Scott Mayfield are a couple of pending UFAs who could help replenish the draft capital and young talent sacrificed in the Horvat trade.

Varlamov, perhaps the most overqualified backup in the league, is a great luxury and one Lamoriello would love to hang on to. But the 34-year-old probably doesn't fit into the Isles' long-term plans from a financial perspective, seeing as Ilya Sorokin is the clear-cut No. 1 guy.

Verdict: Sell

Washington Capitals

Standings: 6th in Metropolitan (out of playoffs by 1 point)
Playoff chances: 17.4%

Capitals owner Ted Leonsis said in December that the team won't consider a rebuild while Alex Ovechkin chases the all-time goals record. But would he be OK selling off expiring assets in a season that's been riddled with injuries? It's technically not rebuilding if they try and take another swing at things in 2023-24.

The Caps don't have a single defenseman outside of John Carlson signed beyond next year. Dmitry Orlov and Nick Jensen - two solid top-four blue-liners - are the most intriguing pending UFAs. Up front, Lars Eller, Garnet Hathaway, and the injured Connor Brown headline a list of forwards who would certainly draw trade interest if made available, or in Brown's case, healthy.

Does GM Brian MacLellan believe his squad can get on a roll if they're able to return to full health? Or does he call it a lost season? Sitting is the most probable scenario, though the Caps should be willing to trade away depth players on expiring deals versus buying. Meanwhile, MacLellan should be looking to extend Orlov and Jensen to fortify the blue line ahead of the offseason.

Verdict: Sit

(Playoff chances source: MoneyPuck)