Super Bowl MVP bets: Which long shots have a chance vs. the QBs?

Super Bowl week is here! It feels as though the conference championship games were a month ago, but we're days away from crowning a champion.

Our three betting writers have been competing against each other throughout the playoffs to see who has the highest bankroll when the confetti falls at Levi's Stadium. Here's how things stand going into the big game after each starting the playoffs with $1,000.

If you missed some of our Super Bowl betting content from last week, let us catch you up:

• Odds history: Seahawks', Patriots' unlikely paths to the Super Bowl
• Super Bowl insights: Eager bettors heavily backing Seahawks
• Scrappy underdogs: Why favorites have struggled in recent Super Bowls
• Super Bowl simulation: How betting lines expect Seahawks-Patriots to unfold
• Super Bowl betting: Which popular trends are worth buying, selling?

Let's get to our picks for Super Bowl MVP.

👉 Check out all of the Super Bowl markets available on theScore Bet here

🏈 Bet: Darnold to win MVP (+115)

Patterson - Bet $60 to win $69

I'll play the percentages and back the quarterback on the team that's favored to win.

The Seahawks are -225 on the moneyline (69.2% implied probability), and Darnold is +115 to win the MVP (46.5% implied probability). The odds imply there's roughly a 22% chance the Seahawks win and Darnold doesn't earn the honor, and that feels too high.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is next on the oddsboard for the Seahawks, is unlikely to have an explosive game against Christian Gonzalez, one of the best shutdown corners in the league. Smith-Njigba has the skills to beat Gonzalez - I just don't see the Seattle wideout producing an MVP-worthy performance.

Kenneth Walker III is a real threat, though. Without Zach Charbonnet, Walker should get the majority of the goal-line work and could break off a couple of long runs to rack up yards. If he finishes with over 100 rushing yards and multiple touchdowns, he may become the first running back to win the award since Terrell Davis in 1998 ... but history tells me that's unlikely.

A bet on Darnold feels like betting the Seahawks at +115 on the moneyline, which is too much value to pass up.

🏈 Bet: Shaheed to win MVP (+4000)

Deeg - Bet $5 wins $200

It's no secret that the winning quarterback will likely get the MVP, but a wide receiver has won this award eight times, the second-highest total of all positions. Smith-Njigba would be the best candidate here, but he's got a tough matchup against one of the league's best cornerbacks in Gonzalez.

For a long-shot pick, no player has a better chance to change the game than Shaheed. For starters, he's Seattle's kickoff and punt returner, allowing him to make big plays throughout the contest. Shaheed has been one of the best returners in the league since joining the Seahawks on Nov. 4, ranking second in yards per kickoff return (33.2) and third in yards per punt return (16.2) during that stretch. His three return touchdowns are the most in the NFL since early November, and he ran one back against the 49ers in the divisional round.

Shaheed is also Seattle's No. 3 wide receiver and has run the fourth-most routes on the team since being acquired. He's played 50% of the offensive snaps in the postseason, and he hauled in a 51-yard reception in the conference title game. Shaheed's 11.3 air yards per target ranks first on the Seahawks, and he'll likely see a couple of downfield shots Sunday. He's also utilized as a runner on jet sweeps, totaling eight carries over his last 11 games.

Look, it's +4000, and this is a big swing, but if there's any long shot in this game worth taking, it's Shaheed. The speedy playmaker has the opportunity to surprise the world and win this award.

🏈 Bet: Gonzalez to win MVP (+10000)

Oshtry - Bet $25 to win $2500

Let's have some fun with a long shot. This game is projected to be a low-scoring defensive battle featuring shaky quarterback play. I'm predicting the Patriots will win. However, Drake Maye has struggled throughout the playoffs against elite defenses, and the Seahawks certainly fit that profile.

If the Patriots win because of their defense, a defensive player will take home MVP, which hasn’t happened since Von Miller in Super Bowl 50. Lockdown corner Gonzalez is the Patriots' best defensive player. While he didn't record an interception during the regular season, he had one in the AFC Championship Game against Denver. Darnold has thrown the third-most picks all season. He's susceptible to mistakes that New England and Gonzalez can capitalize on. We need him to snag one interception while the Patriots shut down the Seahawks' passing offense for him to warrant consideration, which makes this bet worth a shot at this absurdly long price.

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