NFL Week 13 prop party: Warren ready to carve up Bills' run defense
Your "Anytime TD Guy" is filling in for Sam this week, and we're looking to translate my success with touchdown scorers to prop bets.
The Bills-Steelers matchup offers ample opportunities for some over props to hit, and we're attacking two from that game. Here are five of my favorite prop bets for the Week 13 slate.
🏈 Bet: Over 63.5 rushing yards
Warren has hit this number in two of his last three games and has a great matchup Sunday. Buffalo's run defense is its Achilles' heel - the team ranks 31st in EPA/rush while surrendering the third-most rushing yards to running backs heading into Week 13.
🏈 Bet: Over 42.5 receiving yards
Schultz has been consistent in recent weeks after a slow start to the season. He's gone over this number in five of his last seven games and now gets a Colts defense that's allowed the third-most receiving yards to tight ends this season.
🏈 Bet: Longest reception over 19.5 yards
Pittsburgh's pass defense has allowed the most targets, receptions, and receiving yards to wideouts this year. Shakir's 29 catches since Oct. 25 rank eighth among all NFL pass-catchers, so attacking any of his over props is a good look Sunday. His longest reception stands out, as he's gone over 19.5 yards in five of his last seven games.
🏈 Bet: Over 27.5 rushing yards
Tuten totaled 74 rushing yards in Jacksonville's blowout win over the Chargers two weeks ago, and 27.5 is a low number considering he's still getting a healthy workload behind Travis Etienne. If the Jaguars pull away, Tuten will easily exceed 10-plus carries in this contest. The Titans' defense ranks 28th in EPA/rush and has surrendered the seventh-most rushing yards to running backs this season.
🏈 Bet: To throw one 1+ interceptions
The Rams' defense has nine interceptions in 2025, tied for the third-most in the league. Young has thrown nine picks this year, including at least one in seven of his 11 starts. His passing attempts total is set at 32.5. That means sportsbooks see a ton of opportunities for Los Angeles' defense to force Young to make a mistake.
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