MNF bets: Will Mayfield's magic work vs. Lions?
For those of you who like Monday Night Football doubleheaders, there's another one on deck. The Lions host the Buccaneers for a big NFC meeting that could have playoff seeding implications. And the Seahawks welcome the Texans to Seattle for the late game, a 10 p.m. ET start that many East Coast football fans won't catch the ending of.
Let's dive into our picks for the games, four player props to target, and touchdown scorer bets.
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π Pick: Buccaneers (+6.5)
Hand up: I can't figure out the Buccaneers. The only time I backed them against the spread, they barely squeaked out a victory over the Jets. Their magical season continued last week with a win over the 49ers, and now they head to Detroit, where Baker Mayfield can really strengthen his MVP case.
The Lions return home after losing to the Chiefs 30-17. They are the deserved favorite in this meeting, but their secondary is extremely beat-up, and Brian Branch will miss this game due to a suspension. The Bucs' wide receiver room is also dealing with injuries, but Mike Evans should return, giving Mayfield his favorite target.
This game has a 52.5 point total, so oddsmakers are expecting plenty of scoring from both sides. Mayfield has been playing at an elite level this season, and he should be able to maintain it against a porous Lions secondary. The Buccaneers should be able to keep this game close, and could even pull off the upset.
π Pick: Seahawks (-3.5)
The last time we saw the Texans, they steamrolled a lifeless Ravens team on the road. Before that, they beat up the Titans 26-0. In hindsight, those two victories are not overly impressive considering the state of their opponents. The Texans still have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and won't be able to protect C.J. Stroud from a good Seattle defense.
Yes, Houston has the rest advantage and a slightly better defense, but the Seahawks' defensive unit is stout, and their offense is clicking with Sam Darnold under center. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is unguardable, and Seattle will be able to be move him around the field enough to avoid the Texans' Derek Stingley Jr.
The Seahawks put forth a great effort every week, and the Texans haven't done nearly enough offensively to warrant any trust on the road against a good defense.
π Bet: Over 20.5 receiving yards
White surpassed this total in his last three games, serving as the starting running back in two of them. Bucky Irving remains out this week, meaning White will get a full workload again. In a game with shootout potential where the Buccaneers are expected to be trailing, this is a very low total for a good pass-catcher out of the backfield who could see a bunch of dump-offs.
π Bet: Over 45.5 receiving yards
The Lions finally got Williams involved last week against the Chiefs. He caught six passes for 66 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. The best way to attack the Bucs' defense is through the air, and he can take the top off opposing secondaries and hit this over on one catch.
π Bet: Over 6.5 receptions
Smith-Njigba received 13 targets from Darnold last week for a 48% target share. They've quickly formed a fantastic connection to help Smith-Njigba lead the NFL in receiving yards (696). As mentioned, the third-year wideout should be able to avoid shadow coverage from Stingley and should see another high-volume game. He's caught seven or more passes in four of six games this season.
π Bet: Over 19.5 receiving yards
Woody Marks made a statement in Week 4 against the Titans, receiving 21 touches for 119 total yards. He's shown way more explosiveness than Nick Chubb, and the hope here is that the coaching staff leans on him more heavily after the bye. If the Texans are trailing in this game (which is expected), Marks should be on the field more often than Chubb, as he plays in passing situations.
NFL news editor Brenden Deeg will provide touchdown scorer props all season long.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+125)
The veteran wideout is expected to return to the lineup after missing time with a hamstring injury. He was Mayfield's go-to pass-catcher to start the year, racking up 28 targets in three games. With Emeka Egbuka banged up and Chris Godwin Jr. out, we expect Evans to immediately take on a heavy workload. Detroit entered Week 7 with the second-most touchdowns surrendered to opposing wide receivers.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+160)
After not scoring in his first four games, LaPorta found the end zone in back-to-back contests. The 24-year-old is on pace for the best season of his career and has a favorable matchup Monday night. Tampa Bay has already allowed four touchdowns to opposing tight ends, tied for the third most in the league.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+375)
Our long shot of the night goes to the veteran who's recorded at least six targets in each of the last three games. Seattle's defense has been solid this season, but its weak point has been covering tight ends; the Seahawks are allowing the fourth-most targets and fifth-most catches to the position.
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