SNF bets: Can Lions hand Mahomes another prime-time loss?
Sunday's slate is capped by an intriguing matchup between the Lions and Chiefs, two teams with Super Bowl aspirations. This game has a total of 52.5, the highest of the week, so there should be plenty of fireworks at Arrowhead Stadium.
Let's get to our pick against the spread, player props, and touchdown scorers for Sunday Night Football.
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π Pick: Chiefs (-2.5)
Sunday night will be the third game in a row where the Chiefs are favored by less than a field goal at home. They lost to the Eagles in Week 2, then dismantled a beat-up Ravens team two weeks ago. It's hard to see them dropping another game at Arrowhead this season.
Despite losing to the Jaguars on Monday night, the Chiefs look like their old selves. A rare Patrick Mahomes interception on the Jags' goal line was returned 99 yards for a touchdown, which ultimately won Jacksonville the game. Mahomes doesn't make those kinds of mistakes in back-to-back contests. The Chiefs gained 476 total yards against a stout Jaguars defense.
The Lions' secondary is also banged up. Cornerback Terrion Arnold will miss this game. Safeties Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch are both dealing with injuries, and their status for Sunday is in doubt. The Lions allowed Jake Browning, who was benched for Joe Flacco, to throw for 251 yards and three touchdowns last week. Mahomes should have a field day passing all over this depleted secondary.
Lastly, the Lions haven't faced a defense this talented on the road since Week 1, when they scored just 13 points against the Packers. Detroit scored at will at home and on the road against poor Ravens and Bengals defenses. This will be Jared Goff and Co.'s toughest test in a while.
π Bet: Over 5.5 receptions
Worthy didn't rack up the most receiving yards in the two games since he returned from a shoulder injury, but he got plenty of opportunities with eight and then nine targets. Considering the injuries to the Lions' defensive backs, Mahomes should look his way often, allowing Worthy to hit the over.
π Bet: Over 44.5 rushing yards
The Chiefs are conceding 123.4 yards per game on the ground, and opponents have realized it's the best way to attack their defense while keeping Mahomes off the field. Montgomery has handled at least 11 carries in four of five games this season and surpassed 44.5 rushing yards three times. Expect a run-heavy Lions attack in which Montgomery will be a key factor.
π Bet: Longest reception over 15.5 yards
Thornton has emerged as Mahomes' go-to deep threat. He's caught a pass of 33 or more yards in four of five games this season, making 15.5 seem very achievable. Thornton should be able to sneak behind that banged-up Lions secondary for a long one.
NFL news editor Brenden Deeg will provide touchdown scorer props all season long.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+115)
If you get a player with six touchdowns in five games at plus odds, you have to take it. St. Brown has been Goff's clear top target this season, leading Detroit in receptions (35) and receiving yards (407). This game has all the makings of a shootout, opening the door for St. Brown to get a heavy workload.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+260)
The three-time MVP currently leads the Chiefs in rushing yards. Honestly. Mahomes has three rushing touchdowns on the season and just scored during a prime-time game against the Jaguars. With no clear top offensive weapon on this team, we'll take a swing on Mahomes continuing to carry the Chiefs with his legs.
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