Could Rodgers actually complete the Favre career path?
The NFL offseason just got interesting.
Friday night's surprise trade sending Geno Smith from the Seahawks to the Raiders is notable enough. The new staff in Las Vegas has, seemingly out of nowhere, found a legitimate starter for nothing more than a late third-round pick. It's a puzzling move for Seattle, with no obvious replacement in-house, but it's tough to imagine the club doesn't have a pivot plan.
And thus begins another game of quarterback musical chairs. Multiple teams should be impacted by the fallout of this deal. If you squint, you might even see how it opens the door for maximum chaos: Aaron Rodgers completing the Brett Favre career arc.
The Seahawks, according to recent reports, are expected to turn their attention to Sam Darnold when the free-agent negotiating period opens Monday. It makes a lot of sense. The 2024 breakout star with the Minnesota Vikings worked with new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak during his lone season in San Francisco in 2023, and he'd be a strong fit for Seattle's new, play-action heavy offense. He's also seven years younger than Smith.
Seattle swooping in to steal Darnold after an unexpected QB change would complicate things for the teams that figured to be in the mix for his services as a free agent. That group includes, most notably, the Vikings.
J.J. McCarthy is the quarterback future in Minnesota. A real case can be made for simply handing him the keys to this 14-win team and starting that new era right now. Maybe that's exactly what the Vikings end up doing in the end. But the widely reported interest in running it back with Darnold on a short-term deal signals they might not be keen on rushing the process with their 2024 first-round pick. McCarthy missed his entire rookie campaign with a knee injury suffered in August.
At the very least, a veteran quarterback will be added as insurance. Daniel Jones, a former first-round pick who joined the Vikings after a late-season release from the Giants, is probably the most likely candidate to fill that role. But he's a free agent and will have other options. And who says the Vikings are content to aim that low, anyway?
That brings us to Rodgers. Multiple reports have identified him as an option for the Vikings, in addition to the Giants, in anticipation of Darnold's departure. That could be a classic example of an agent trying to spark a non-existent market. In the interest of fun, though, let's assume there's something to it.
The 41-year-old's career path has already been oddly reminiscent of his Packers predecessor. Favre, like Rodgers, had long earned legend status in Green Bay. But the team's decision to draft a young quarterback a few years early (in this case, Rodgers) kick-started a dysfunctional relationship. He was eventually traded to the Jets, and it did not go well. A far more productive year in Minnesota followed.
Rodgers, who will soon be released after his nightmare stint in New York, could now be in position to mirror that last phase. Vikings fans will probably (and understandably) hate the idea. It's admittedly tough to feel confident that he has much left in the tank heading into Year 21. But we probably all thought the same thing about Favre when he moved to Minnesota.
A 39-year-old Favre ranked 21st in EPA/dropback in his lone season with the Jets, right between Trent Edwards and Tyler Thigpen, according to TruMedia. He climbed all the way to fourth the next year in Minnesota, flanked by Peyton Manning and Tom Brady among league leaders. Favre finished fourth in MVP voting in that 2009 campaign, leading the Vikings to a 12-4 record before they ultimately fell to the Saints in overtime of the NFC title game.
Rodgers would be a long shot to replicate that kind of success, but is it really that wild to think he could bounce back in the QB paradise that helped Darnold become a sought-after free agent? We saw some flashes from Rodgers down the stretch last season, including a Week 18 finale in which he posted his first four-touchdown game since 2021. It's not out of the question that he taps into that vintage form a little more regularly another year removed from the torn Achilles. An improved situation wouldn't hurt, either.
That appears to be exactly what the Rams were thinking when rumors circulated about Rodgers being the fallback option if they had been forced to trade Matthew Stafford. Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell, who developed under Los Angeles' Sean McVay, could be looking at it the same way.
In an ideal world, the upcoming season will be McCarthy's time to shine in Minnesota. The Vikings probably aren't going to block him for a full year of a veteran addition if they deem him ready to go. But any reservations on that front should, and likely will, open the door for someone like Rodgers. It's not as crazy as it might seem.
If nothing else, the entertainment factor would be off the charts.