QB dominoes: How do pieces fit with Stafford off the board?
Matthew Stafford passing on trade opportunities to stick with the Rams was the first of many dominoes to fall in the quarterback landscape this offseason.
How do teams in the mix for Stafford pivot? And who's left for the rest of clubs with question marks at the most important position on the field?
Let's take a look at how the quarterback market could shake out this offseason.
Giants go bold
The Giants appeared to be hot after Stafford the last few weeks. It never made much sense for this team to part with significant draft capital and make a major financial commitment to a 37-year-old, but everything's on the table when a general manager and head coach are desperate to save their jobs. Perhaps striking out on their top veteran target clears the way for a more logical way to get aggressive.
All reports out of the NFL combine suggest Cam Ward is considered to be in a tier of his own in this year's QB class. Rather than sit back and hope he's available at No. 3, the Giants should take matters into their own hands. A few Day 2 picks are a small price to pay to jump the Browns and land the No. 1 pick from the Titans.
New York would likely pair Ward with a veteran to avoid rushing him onto the field as a rookie. Russell Wilson could make sense, assuming he doesn't have much of a market after fizzling out down the stretch last year in Pittsburgh. But there are plenty of other free agents who could fill that role in the short term.
No matter who joins Ward, finding a way to land him at the top of the draft is key to the Giants establishing some sort of future. The Miami star's by far the most exciting option to pair with budding superstar receiver Malik Nabers. And for Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll, investing in a rookie QB probably buys them some extra time.
Vet in Vegas
Pete Carroll hasn't been shy about his plans to compete right away, so it was no surprise his new team was aggressive in its Stafford pursuit. The Raiders came up short, though, like the Giants. So, what now?
Tom Brady's relationship with Shedeur Sanders looms large here. Given the pessimism around Sanders' draft stock coming out of the combine, it appears increasingly likely the Colorado star could be available when the Raiders are on the clock at No. 6. But is a win-now team really going to hand the job to a polarizing rookie?
Sam Darnold feels like the most logical fit if we're sticking with veteran options. However, a recent report suggested the Stafford chase was due in part to the Raiders being "lukewarm" on Darnold, among other options. Meanwhile, Wilson has the connection to Carroll, but the former Seahawks coach was ultimately vindicated by the decision to trade the QB away. Why go back now?
What if Aaron Rodgers - who figures to be short on suitors with the Rams out of the picture - comes relatively cheap? Raiders fans probably hate the idea no matter the price tag, and it's hard to blame them. But the future Hall of Famer did show some flashes down the stretch last season, and if he's motivated and healthier another year removed from his Achilles injury, perhaps he can provide more consistent production. It's not the craziest short-term fix for a Raiders team with nearly $100 million in cap space to upgrade the roster around him. And a 41-year-old Rodgers certainly wouldn't stop them from also picking a QB at some point on draft weekend.
Jets swing big
The idea of the Jets drafting a QB in the first round once seemed like a pipe dream only attainable by way of a blockbuster trade up, but that may no longer be the case. League evaluators being down on Sanders - a near-consensus takeaway from insiders at the combine - appears to open the door for the possibility he's on the board at No. 7. While it's no guarantee the Jets would end his potential slide, they could probably justify the gamble more than any other club.
New York remains in a decades-long struggle at QB. Blue-chip talents at other spots are likely to be long gone by the time the Jets are on the clock, and it's not like they have many other options under center. Darnold probably isn't even answering the phone if they call about a reunion.
That dubious QB history could very well land the Jets on the list of teams Deion Sanders is steering away from drafting his son, but we'll leave any such speculation out of the equation here. There's momentum for true culture change with New York's new staff in place, and this is the kind of roster that can support a rookie QB. Tyrod Taylor already on the roster as a potential bridge starter and mentor helps, too.
Sanders could be worth a shot at No. 7, or even following a potential trade back to stockpile picks. One of these swings is going to hit eventually. And this may be the time to take another, unless the Jets plan on picking high in next year's draft, too.
Browns do what they can
The Browns are likely happy with Ward if he's available at No. 2. However, assuming the Giants trade up to No. 1, Cleveland will likely have to shift its focus to Travis Hunter or Abdul Carter. Reaching for a different QB may be a tough sell with a pair of elite talents on the board at other value positions.
So, what do their veteran options look like? In short: they're not great. Any big-money signing is off the table thanks to Deshaun Watson's albatross contract. Stafford was never a realistic option, they can't afford Darnold or Wilson, and it's tough to imagine Rodgers signing with a team with no cap flexibility to build around him.
All roads lead back to Kirk Cousins. The Falcons claim they're planning to keep him as a backup, but nobody believes that, and the 36-year-old veteran will surely be released when Atlanta fails to find a trade partner. And with a fully guaranteed $27.5 million still on the books, he'll head to free agency looking for nothing more than a league-minimum contract.
Signing Cousins after a season in which he was benched for a rookie QB wouldn't be the most inspiring move, but the bar can't be too high here. An optimist can also point to the fact Cousins was actually quite good before struggling with shoulder and elbow injuries in the second half. Could he regain his previous form now that he's healthy and a full season removed from a torn Achilles? Cleveland may as well find out. Signing Cousins for next to nothing and reuniting him with Kevin Stefanski could be the perfect bridge to a Day 2 rookie or a QB taken at the top of next year's draft.
Tennessee splash?
The Titans could easily stick at No. 1 and take Ward for themselves, but the staff's been transparent in saying it won't pass on a generational talent to force a QB pick. Selling the top pick to the highest bidder between the Browns and Giants would help Tennessee load up on draft capital while staying in range to draft either Hunter or Carter.
The QB position will then need to be addressed in free agency if that's how things shake out. Darnold's easily the most interesting open-market option, and the Titans have money to spend.
Signing the former first-round bust after a single breakout season in the Vikings' QB paradise will come with risk. Darnold reminded everyone of his limitations with a poor finish to the year, and the Titans can't offer anywhere near the same level of support. Still, we're talking about a 27-year-old with the talent of a mid-level starter. It's entirely possibly Darnold's best football is ahead of him.
It won't be cheap - QB contracts rarely are. But the Titans could probably structure a big-money deal with an escape if things aren't working out two years from now. Consider it an expensive bridge option with upside.
Vikings turn to the kid
It's almost J.J. McCarthy's time to shine. The Vikings will leave the door open for a Darnold return, but they can't (and likely won't) do anything that would block last year's first-round pick from seeing the field whenever he's ready.
Daniel Jones, who landed in Minnesota late last season, could be re-signed as an insurance option in case McCarthy needs to be brought along slowly after missing his entire rookie campaign with a knee injury. The Vikings are best off using Darnold's money to improve the rest of the roster, rather than wash out the advantage of having a QB on a rookie contract.
Steelers stay conservative
Anyone hoping the Steelers will make a big QB splash hasn't been paying attention to how this team does business. All indications suggest they'll re-sign one of last year's signal-callers, with Justin Fields the favorite over Wilson.
Fields emerging as the long-term answer feels like a long shot, but giving the 26-year-old another chance is far more reasonable than paying market value for an aging Wilson. The Steelers could pair Fields with a rookie QB who plays similarly, like Jalen Milroe, on Day 2 of the draft.
Saints triple down on Carr
The Saints appear to be moving forward with Derek Carr as their starter for at least another season. It's not the worst option, considering how he played when healthy last year, but it's hardly an exciting one.
The cap ramifications are the more frustrating part of the equation. Rather than biting the bullet and moving on from Carr now, his return likely means New Orleans will restructure his contract in order to be cap compliant. The Saints are projected to be $47 million over the 2025 ceiling and can create around $30 million in space by pushing more of Carr's money to the future, according to Over The Cap. But this probably isn't a situation worth continuing to kick the can down the road.
Colts seek competition
The Colts have been clear: they're committed to Anthony Richardson but will also add to the QB room this offseason. There are no clear options to unseat Richardson, 23 in May and heading into his third season, but a few veterans could provide some insurance in case his struggles continue.
Whichever Steelers QB hits the market between Wilson and Fields could provide legitimate competition for Richardson in camp. Marcus Mariota served as a mentor backup in Washington while Jayden Daniels put together an all-time rookie campaign, and don't forget about Zach Wilson. We've seen a few former draft busts put it all together later than expected. Wilson's time working under Sean Payton could have him better prepared to run an NFL offense, and the Colts should be open to all options.